CFB Pick 6: Week 10
Our week-by-week journey through the trials and tribulations of gambling during the college football season continues for Week 9.
College football is by no means a domain in which I would consider myself an expert. However, college football is something I love to spend my Saturdays, Thursdays, and Tuesdays (shout-out MACtion) watching, and the level of interest is always much higher with money on the line. So follow along in this journey with me throughout the college football season to see if the money I should be using to invest in blockchain turns out to provide a much higher return than ethereum…or if I’m really as dumb as Vegas thinks I am.
Chris and Griffin will also be supplying their picks, but with no monetary incentive.
This week, the picking crew gets some new blood as my roommate, Blake “I’m Daddy” Reback, joins the picking ranks for the week.
Last week was a mixed bag for the BCO crew. Both Griff and I went 3–2–1 and Aaron went 2–3–1. Griff and Aaron incorrectly picked NC State to cover, I missed by picking Iowa to beat the spread, Aaron picked BC to cover against FSU, and we all missed on Appalachian State (thanks for that one, Aaron). In all, it was a great week for college football with Iowa State upsetting TCU, Ohio State coming back to knock off Penn State, Notre Dame dominating NC State, UNC almost upsetting Miami, and Georgia dominating Florida. This week should be no different with marquee match-ups across the board. Some of the games that didn’t make the cut are: Bama-LSU, Penn State-Michigan State, Auburn-Texas A&M, Wake Forest-Notre Dame, and Stanford-Washington State.
Clemson @ NC State
Saturday, November 4th, 3:30 PM EST
Line: Clemson (-8)
COB: This is a battle of stout defenses, or at least what people are calling stout defenses. Clemson comes in with the 7th best defense in terms of yards allowed (7th against the pass and 18th against the rush) and 6th in points allowed. NC State’s defense is 59th in yards allowed (110th against the pass, 19th against the run) and 48th in points allowed. To me, that sounds like there is only 1 stout defense coming into this one. Add that to the fact that NC State just got absolutely torn up on the ground against Notre Dame (318 yards and 2 TDs), and you see what happens when NC State runs into a talented offense that is actually well-run (sorry Louisville). Their defensive prowess was completely overblown because of a fantastic pass rush playing against a very bad ACC this year. Conventional wisdom would say this is a game that NC State comes out and clamps down on D at home, and they may, but not enough to erase an ever-improving Kelly Bryant-led Clemson offense. Even if they’re able to slow the Clemson offense, the NC State offense has no shot against Clemson’s defense (if you want to see real defensive line play, watch Clelin Ferrell, Chrstian Wilkins, and Austin Bryant). If NC State couldn’t must more than 14 points against Notre Dame, they have no shot against Clemson’s juggernaut D.
Blake: Don’t know much about either of these teams. Clemson by 10 because they’re the only team I believe can be considered “good” in the ACC (sorry BCO fellas. Also, Syracuse was a glitch). They’ve got a great D line. Also, if anything, NC State is a basketball school, everyone knows that. Clemson 33–17
*Editor’s Note- “Clemson by 10” and he picks them to win by 16. That’s a Michigan education for you right there. Go Blue?
The Pick: Clemson (-8)
Iowa State @ West Virginia
Saturday, November 4th, 3:30 PM EST
Line: West Virginia (-2)
COB: The Cyclones are a completely different team since ditching Jacob Park for Kyle Kempt as their starting QB, going 4–0 with big wins vs. Oklahoma, TCU, and Texas Tech. The difference for the Cyclones over the last few weeks has been their ability to take care of the football and dominate defensively in a few different ways. Since the loss to Texas, Iowa State has only turned the ball over 2 times. In that same span, they’ve forced 9 turnovers. They forced 2 redzone turnovers against TCU, held them to 307 yards, and iced the game with a 2nd pick of Kenny Hill. They forced 3 turnovers vs. Texas Tech and held them to 336 yards. They shut out Kansas, forced 2 turnovers, and kept them to 106 total yards. They beat Oklahoma, and though they allowed 513 yards, forced a fumble and made huge plays on 3rd and 4th down in potential game-tying drives. This Iowa State defense just finds a way to win. Don’t expect that to stop this week.
Blake: Will Grier is my boy (shoutout PEDs — if you don’t think everyone’s taking them you’re a triggered snowflake cuck), however WVU had a tough shootout last weekend with OK St. in the rain and I expect them to come out sluggish. No Big 12 team has gave up fewer points in the 2nd half than the Cyclones and no Big 12 team has scored more in the 2nd half than the Mountaineers. I think ISU sneaks out with win 35–31 and Joel Lanning becomes my new favorite PED boy (let’s be honest you’re not playing linebacker AND QB without some extra help).
The Pick: Iowa State (+2)
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State
Saturday, November 4th, 4:00 PM EST
Line: Oklahoma State (-2.5)
COB: This has been the game every Big-12 football fan has been looking forward to all season. The Cowboys come in with the 4th best scoring offense (44.5 PPG) and 2nd best passing attack (370.6 YPG). The Sooners come in with the 6th best scoring offense (42.9 PPG) and 3rd best passing attack (369.6 YPG). Both teams have near-Heisman-caliber QBs. Both teams have rushed for about 1500 yards and 20 TDs as well. This game is about on even as you can get on paper. The big difference here is the defense. No, not the scoring defense (both teams are allowing roughly 25 PPG), the ability to force turnovers. The Sooners have only forced 8 turnovers this season whereas the Cowboys have forced 17. This is one of those games that will come down to who can get a stop first. With how opportunistic the Cowboys defense is, I expect them to force the turnover that turns the tides their way at home in Bedlam. Pokes by a score.
The Pick: Oklahoma State (-2.5)
Blake: BARN BURNER BABY. As a side note, if the over doesn’t hit (76.5) I’ll embarrass myself with a punishment of COB’s choosing and let him post it on the site. Back to the game. Battle between 2 Heisman hopefuls in Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph. Don’t expect a lot of defense here. In the end, while Oklahoma isn’t the team they were when they beat OSU, they’re still pretty damn good. Oklahoma’s slightly better (but garbage) defense wins it. 49–38 Boomer Sooner
The Pick: Oklahoma (+2.5)
Minnesota @ Michigan
Saturday, November 4th, 7:30 PM EST
Line: Michigan (-15.5)
COB: Ask Blake, I’m probably one of the biggest Michigan bashers West of Columbus, Ohio. Especially this year. Michigan’s offense is anemic and now they’re starting their 3rd QB this season. Not a good sign when your fan base is excited about a 124 yard-1 TD performance out of their QB against Rutgers. Thankfully they have a solid run game and a stout defense to rely on. The best thing to happen to the Wolverines last week was actually the improvement in their offensive line play, which opened holes left and right for Karan Higdon and Ty Isaac. The defense got back on track as well. Sure, it was only Rutgers, but they only let up 195 total yards after getting gashed for 506 yards against Penn State. Is Michigan’s defense as good as originally advertised? Not even close. Is it good enough to erase an extremely mediocre Golden Gophers’ offense? Yes. Look for the Wolverines to crank up the pressure and load the box against Minnesota’s run game while leaning on Higdon and Isaac in an attempt to play keepaway en route to a convincing win.
The Pick: Michigan (-15.5)
Blake: Not sure if COB has mentioned I’m one of the most AMA’s (Arrogant Michigan Alumnis) you’ll find. Yes talk all the shit you want, Harbaugh is 1–3 against MSU-OSU since he started yadda yadda I don’t give a fuck about your opinion. The genius part about all of it is he’s actually setting things up for the first Heisman winner to only play 4.5 games in a season. Brandon Peters came in for a STRUGGLING John O’Korn and completed his first 3 passes for 37 yards (check down brought tears to my eye). Point of emphasis: it was Rutgers. And while Minnesota is not much better at all, they are well coached by Harbaugh’s man crush, PJ Fleck (row the boat!). Michigan wins handily but look for Minnesota to cover because, well, Michigan’s receivers can’t get open and the line play is suspect at best. 24–10 Michigan
The Pick: Minnesota (+15.5)
Virginia Tech @ Miami
Saturday, November 4th, 8:00 PM EST
Line: Miami (-2.5)
COB: Plain and simple, I don’t think Miami is real. They’re the worst top-10 team other than maybe Wisconsin, just because I hate Alex Hornibrook. They haven’t played anyone yet this season. Duke wasn’t as good as everyone thought, FSU turned out to be garbage, Georgia Tech is middle of the pack, Syracuse is garbage outside of a fluke win vs. Clemson, and UNC is the laughing stock of the ACC. With all of those teams on the schedule, you’d expect a couple big margins of victory, right? Wrong. Only 1 of those games was decided by more than 8 points (Duke). They had a come from behind win against Tech, were up by 1 on Syracuse until 3 minutes to go, beat FSU on a TD pass to Darrell Langham basically as time expired, and had to rely on a late fumble by UNC to ice the win there. Miami is asking to lose every week. VT is the team to finally grant them their wish. Josh Jackson has played well beyond his years with a 17:4 TD-INT ratio, and has led them to big ticket wins against West Virginia (in his first college start, no less) and BC and dominating wins over teams they should dominate (See: 59–7 vs. UNC 2 weeks ago). Their only loss was a quality loss to Clemson, so no issue for me there. Look for Jackson to take care of the ball, keep the Miami turnover chain in it’s jewelry box, and lead the Hokies to a big win in Coral Gables.
The Pick: Virginia Tech (+2.5)
Blake: Huge fan of the Turnover Chain. The U swagger is back on a hundred thousand trillion. I believe this is gonna be a battle outside the box all game. Although Virginia Tech is tied for 3rd fewest turnovers in the ACC with 6 (I looked up this fact and am not as smart as I come off as), I think the Turnover Chain will make multiple appearances. Getting icy in Miami. Also Miami’s receivers are playmakers. Looking for a last minute field goal from the canes to seal the deal. 27–24 Canes
The Pick: Miami (-2.5)
Arizona @ USC
Saturday, November 4th, 8:00 PM EST
Line: USC (-7)
COB: Sam Darnold has not been the guy everyone expected this season. This was supposed to be the wunderkind that would use the immense family history he has at USC (see: Grandfather, Dick Hammer), arm talent, good decision making skills, and general football IQ to lead USC to the CFP this season in a grand return to glory. Well, that hasn’t gone according to plan. He’s thrown 10 picks (more than he did all of last season) and lost 6 of his 8 fumbles. He looks like he’s trying to do too much at all times, forcing throws and losing the ball trying to keep the play alive on sacks. Part of that is the insane amount of offensive line injuries they’ve sustained, but that doesn’t force him to make bad decisions. You have to adapt to new circumstances if you want to be a top 5 pick. Now he’s going to have to go against an Arizona defense that forced Mike Leach to bench Luke Falk then picked off the backup 4 times? Not good, dude. Pair that with the fact that Christian Rector and Porter Gustin won’t be playing (Josh Fatu may not either) and you come to the conclusion that they won’t be able to stop a nose bleed on defense, let along Kahlil Tate, who has been lighting up Pac-12 defenses as a dual-threat QB (743 passing yards 6 TDs, 840 rushing yards, 8 TDs in his last 4 games).
Blake: First off I’m gonna throw out there this is a matchup of my two least favorite PAC-12 teams. University of Spoiled Children vs the team that can’t even read the team name on their jerseys. But I will say Khalil Tate is one of the top 5 most exciting players in football right now. Additionally, Sam Darnold is one of the top 5 most shook players in college football. So shook (although I’ll give 2.5 pity points because of the offensive line injury woes). Look for Darnold to throw 2+ picks against a hungry Arizona team. ‘Zona wins 24–21 in OT
The Pick: Arizona(+7)
