CFB Pick 6: Week 8
Our week-by-week journey through the trials and tribulations of gambling during the college football season continues for Week 8.
College football is by no means a domain in which I would consider myself an expert. However, college football is something I love to spend my Saturdays, Thursdays, and Tuesdays (shout-out MACtion) watching, and the level of interest is always much higher with money on the line. So follow along in this journey with me throughout the college football season to see if the money I should be using to invest in blockchain turns out to provide a much higher return than ethereum…or if I’m really as dumb as Vegas thinks I am.
Chris and Griffin will also be supplying their picks, but with no monetary incentive. This week, Stephen Murphey of SB Nation lore will be filling in for Chris, while Grant Herman will be filling in for Griffin again. Check out Stephen’s weekly column on SB Nation here.
Last week was pretty solid all around. Outside of the Michigan game (which was one of the most boring, yet predictable pushes of all time), each of our staff members went either 4–1 or 3–2 ATS. Chris and I faltered in betting against the mighty LSU Tigers and Coach O in the Bayou, while both Herm and Chris should’ve rowed the boat a little more and picked PJ Fleck and the Golden Gophers to cover against Michigan State. A big help for all of us game from West Virginia’s 29 unanswered in the second half, which provided us with a great reminder in college football betting and proved Supertramp’s classic rock ballad correct; some things never change. In this case, that would be seeing an atrocious Red Raider defense on Saturdays in Lubbock.
This week’s slate of games is catered to the big-time match-ups, and guest picker SMurphey’s strange affinity for betting on Group of 5 match-ups. Apologies for the lack of differentiation, but we’re actually trying to make some money here:
Memphis @ Houston
Thursday, October 19, 8:00 PM EST
Line: Houston by 3
Aaron: In Memphis’s two biggest games of the year, they took care of two top-25 opponents in Navy last week and UCLA in week 2. Memphis is 5–1 and has looked great getting there. Houston lost to Tulsa last week by four touchdowns. Chalk this one up to recency bias, but in my opinion, home-field advantage is the only reason Houston is favored in this one. Memphis rolls on their way to becoming bowl eligible, 38–20.
SMurphey: So one of the things I’ve been most interested in this season is watching the G5 championship race (I know that’s not a real thing) unfold. For a while, seems like people thought Houston wouldn’t skip many beats after losing Tom Herman. Well… they might want to re-tether expectations. They might have one of the best defensive lineman in the country in Ed Oliver (who was the only 5* recruit to ever commit to a G5 school, FBI where you at?), but that doesn’t make up for a lack of scheme in absence of the man now coming into your fair city and torching you in recruiting. I don’t trust Houston as a home favorite, go against the grain, tease Memphis up to +4.5 because why not? Memphis 38, Houston 30.
Herm: Memphis has played in a lot of high scoring games due to not only their weak defense but their explosive offense as well. Ferguson has 19 TDs to only 4 INTs this season. Houston’s defense will be able to contain Ferguson and the rest of Memphis’s offense to a degree, but at the end of the day, Houston’s offense will not be able to keep up, and Memphis will not only cover, but they will win.
The Pick: Memphis (+3)
South Florida @ Tulane
Saturday, October 21, 7:00 PM EST
Line: South Florida by 13
Aaron: As we’ve talked about before, Quinton Flowers is one of the most fun to watch players in the country. Behind his leadership, the Bulls have put up 47, 43, 61, and 33 points in their last four contests, and their defense has finally started to play with the ferocity that you’d expect to see from a Charlie Strong team. I expect Zach Block to see the field significantly more frequently than our Large Adult Punter friend Jon Hernandez, and the Bulls to crush the Green Wave in their first night game of the season.
SMurphey: Come with me into the depths of the G5, where we bet on teams whose helmets look like those pictured above. Is Tulane the satellite campus of the University of North Texas? Beats me. Look for South Florida to continue to poop on people and for Quinton Flowers to make Tulane start looking for a new mascot.
Herm: Both teams rely heavily on their run game, so at the end of the day this will come down to each team’s run defense. USF allows 77 rush yards per game while Tulane allows 200 rush yards per game against a schedule much weaker than USF is. USF will literally run all over Tulane in a lopsided win, covering the spread.
The Pick: USF (-13)
Michigan @ Penn State
Saturday, October 21, 7:30 PM EST
Line: Penn State by 10
Aaron: Last weekend I sat in the house of die-hard Michigan fans while watching the second half of their “game” against Indiana. This Michigan offense is statistically atrocious and even worse by the eye test. In their six games so far this season, the Wolverine defense has been tremendous, but they’ve also yet to play against anyone close to the talent level of Saquon Barkley. With College Gameday in town and the national media showing the least amount of respect I’ve seen a #2 team get since 2007 (hey USF, Boston College, West Virgnia…’member? We ‘member), Penn State rolls with a score similar to the Cal-Washington State game of this past weekend.
SMurphey: Now out of my area of expertise… Yikes. I haven’t liked Michigan all year. They’re 2–3–1 ATS this year. MMBP first rule of thumb, never trust teams that push on spreads. Their second strike is hitting 4 of 6 Unders this season. O/U currently sits at 45, and I honestly don’t see how given what we know about the lack of offense at the actual UM (still salty about Miami), you can expect them to score at a pace to keep up with September Heisman Saquon Barkley. [Looks up PSU points totals] So turns out the black shoes have hit 5 of 6 Unders. Man I’m feeling less and less confident by the minute… uhhhhhhh Penn State covers. Bet the Over and pray for chaos. Michigan 22, Penn State 41
Herm: Everyone has been talking about how good Michigan’s defense is, but on the other side of the field, Penn State boasts an even better defense in terms of points allowed per game. This spells trouble for Michigan because although they can slow down PSU, the Nittany Lions will still find a way to score. Michigan on the other hand, will struggle to score. PSU covers the spread in a low scoring game.
The Pick: Penn State(-10)
USC @ Notre Dame
Saturday, October 21, 7:30 PM EST
Line: Notre Dame by 4
Aaron: Betting against Notre Dame at home has done me well so far this season. In another match-up of perpetually over-rated teams (at least for the past decade), USC is more talented, healthier, and an overall better team. Their confidence is back after a beatdown on Oregon State and a close-win over Utah, and I expect this to be the game that puts Sam Darnold back on the radar for the 49ers. The last time the Irish lost the week after a bye was Oct. 22, 2011–31–17 to USC. Look for the score of this one to be similar.
SMurphey: What is God’s Green Goodness to is going on here? Does Vegas know something that we don’t? Does Touchdown Jesus throw lightning bolts to smite all the LA-ians that will descend on South Bend? Who knows, but Vegas must not think some of the Trojans will get off the bus I guess, because I don’t see ND doing much in this game. They looked lackluster in most facets of the game against Georgia, but then again, so has everyone this season. Notre Dame has played bad Temple, eh BC, normal Mich St., bad Miami (OH), and BAD UNC in addition to Georgia. They’ve beaten the spread in all of these games, but look for the Turnover Margin to tell the story here. Sam Darnold takes care of the ball and Road Dawgs the school girls of South Bend. USC 24, Notre Dame 17
Herm: Notre Dame is currently averaging over 300 yards per game on the ground, giving them a chance to control the pace of this game as long as they can move the sticks and avoid too many short drives. Darnold is a great QB who can make difficult passes so if ND’s defense gets worn out as the game carries on, this could become a hefty win for USC. I personally would not bet on this game, but if I had to, I think that ND will do just enough to win, but not to cover the spread.
The Pick: USC (+4)
Arizona @ California
Saturday, October 21, 8:00 PM EST
Line: Arizona by 3
Aaron: Khalil Tate is my new Josh Rosen. I’m never picking against this guy until he gives me a reason not to. HOW ARE YOU GOING TO BET AGAINST THE TEAM WHOSE QUARTERBACK LOOKS LIKE HE’S GOT A NITROUS OXIDE BOOSTER IN HIS CLEATS.
SMurphey: Snap back to obscurity whoa, there goes gravity. No, it don’t matter. Khalil Tate cares not about your perpetual night games, nor where he plays them. In the words taken from the 100% true reenactment of Shrimp Billionaire Forrest Gump’s life: “That boy is a running fool.” That’s all you have to know. Zona 100, Cal 28 (Over on this game at 59 might be the lock of the week… shhhhh)
Herm: Cal is riding high after they absolutely stomped Washington State last weekend. Can they keep it up this weekend? Probably not. Arizona has a balanced offensive attack while Cal struggles to run the ball. Arizona’s defense isn’t the best, but it will be able to manage against Cal’s one dimensional offense. Arizona wins 31–20 to keep things interesting in the Pac-12 South.
The Pick: Arizona (-3)
West Virginia @ Baylor
Saturday, October 21, 8:00 PM EST
Line: West Virginia by 9
Aaron: This is shameful that the line is only 9. Will Grier is quietly one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and after scoring 29 unanswered points in the second half against Texas Tech this past week, it’s clear that this team can score in a hurry while holding explosive offenses in check. And Baylor is worse at football than they are at running a clean program. West Virginia wins in a game where they put up Georgia Tech-level running statistics.
SMurphey: Bad things in Year -1 of the Matt Rhule era at Baylor. Still unable to find a victory despite playing Liberty, UTSA, and Duke in the OOC schedule. The bad gets worse. Will Grier 52, Baylor Bears 20. SmurphDaddyDragon’s Lock of the Week.
Herm: This is a pretty easy pick in what should be a very lopsided game. WVU has one of the best offenses in college with 550 yards per game while Baylor is allowing over 500 yards per game. Baylor kept it close against Oklahoma but outside of that, we have seen them perform exactly like an 0–6 team would be performing. WVU covers the spread and stomps Baylor.
The Pick: WVU (-9)
Colorado @ Washington State
Saturday, October 21, 10:45 PM EST
Line: Washington State by 10.5
Aaron: EXPOSE THEM. Colorado has been horrendous, and this pick could come back to bite me in the ass, but after a seven-turnover performance, I no longer have any belief in this Washington State team. Even if they pull out the win at home, it’ll be in a close one where the Buffs cover.
The Pick: Colorado (+10.5)
Smurphey: Avoid this game like your touchy Aunt at the family reunion or drunk cousin at a wedding who now realizes they’re old and wishes to cling to the spirit of your youth. This game will keep you up all night, robbing you not only of your sleep, but your desire to live as you undoubtedly will bet the wrong side of a game that will either go one of two ways.
- Team A wins 25–15 over Team B in a game with more turnovers than field goals. (Don’t ask me how you get 25–15, but don’t tempt fate and say it isn’t possible.)
- Team A beats Team B like they stole something. 41–17.
The Pick: Abstain. But if you can’t resist, bet on Mike Leach, and in an act of blind faith, risk it all and tease up to -14.5. You won’t.
Herm: WSU got crushed in embarrassing fashion last week and they are going to come out this week looking to make a statement. WSU’s two strong points are their defense, and their passing game. Luke Falk is going to manage this game to perfection and prove just how much of a fluke his performance was last week. Falk is a kid that will be playing on Sunday’s and WSU’s defensive line is quick and talented as hell. Colorado will have trouble scoring, and WSU will prove to everyone that they are legit, and last week was just an anomaly.
The Pick: Washington State (-10.5)
Questions, comments, concerns? Think we’re right? Agree? Disagree? Hit us up on Twitter. We’d love to hear your thoughts.
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