DFS Sunday Helper

All fantasy football and DFS players are familiar with Matthew Berry’s “Love/Hate” each week, highlighting players he thinks are going to perform well, as well as those he thinks will be busts. I decided to do the same thing, but I took FanDuel values into account as well. I also wanted to touch on every single game this Sunday, so for each game, I picked one player from each team that I either Love or Hate and give you my reasons why. I consider myself slightly better at FanDuel than Aaron is at betting against the spread, which isn’t saying much, but still, just like Aaron, I want to put my money where my mouth is. I built out $20 worth of lineups using only players I listed as “Love” so we can see how I do this week.

Bears/Ravens -

• Ravens Offense (Hate) — The Ravens offense this year has had some spotty flashes of competence, but for the most part, they haven’t been the same since their O-Line was hit with some major injuries. There is a lot of value to be found in this week’s games, so there is no reason to swing for the fences with a Ravens player.
• Bears Defense (4,200) — The Ravens offense is currently 28th in the league in yards, and 24th in scoring. The Bears do have a -9 turnover ratio, but that is mostly due to their QB and not so much their defense. They also have 13 sacks on the year, and against a battered Ravens O-Line, they should be able to put plenty of pressure on Flacco.

Packers/Vikings -

• Thielen (5,600) — Adam Thielen torched the Packers last time they played for 202 yards and 2 TDs. With Diggs not 100% this week, expect to see Keenum relying on Thielen against a decent, but not great Packers D.
• Jordy Nelson (8,100) (Hate) — Xavier Rhodes. The pro-bowl CB has been having himself an All-Pro year so far and against some of the best in the league he has been outstanding. He has the size to match up with Jordy and after last week Jordy is banged up so he may not be 100%.

49ers/Redskins -

• Terrelle Pryor (6,800) — Pryor and Cousins finally look like they are on the same page and that is good news for both Cousins and Pryor owners. Reed is set to play but he has been fragile recently and Cousins can use any extra targets he can get.
• George Kittle (5,300) — I like Kittle not because I expect him to be a high scoring TE this week, but for his price he can provide a decent value. He is a solid target for Hoyer who is only averaging 6.2 YPA and he seems to be gaining the trust of his team and coaches as the season moves on.

Lions/Saints -

• Alvin Kamara (5,800) — The AP experiment didn’t last long in New Orleans and Kamara is going to benefit the most. He is currently averaging 5.5 yards per carry, and 7.4 yards per reception with 9 total touches a game through the first 4 games. Expect an increase in workload for Kamara, especially against a Lions defense that may cause some trouble for the Saints passing game.
• Matt Stafford (8,500) (Hate) — The Lions are currently 28th in the league in passing and Stafford is not at 100%. Can he manage the game this week and keep the Lions in it? Yes. But this Saints defense can get pressure on the QB, and with a Lions team that has allowed 18 sacks so far, Stafford will be in trouble when he needs to be mobile.

Dolphins/Falcons -

• Taylor Gabriel (5,800) — Sanu is expected to be out, Julio is back but maybe not 100%, and Gabriel is averaging 13 yards per reception. The Dolphin’s line isn’t terrible and may prevent Freeman and Coleman from having huge games, so with more targets Gabriel should be able to shine.
• Jarvis Landry (6,500) (Hate) — I do not trust anyone on the Dolphins offense until they prove they can be better than the worst offense in the league. Landry will get the targets, but on an offense that can’t move the ball, that doesn’t mean much.

Epitome of the Dolphins’s offense

Browns/Texans -

• Deshaun Watson (7,900) — This guy is on fire and the Browns are… well the Browns. There isn’t much explaining needed here, and with Fuller and Hopkins at full strength, Lamar Miller figuring out his role in the offense, and Watson’s threat as a runner, expect another huge game from the most exciting rookie QB in the league.
• Duke Johnson (5,600) — Duke Johnson currently leads the team in receptions and receiving yards, as well as yards per attempt running. Besides Johnson and Njoku, the Browns really have no fantasy prospects on offense, and with a newly injured Texans D-line, Johnson should have a chance to be the focal point of their offense again this week.

Patriots/Jets -

• Chris Hogan (7,500) — FanDuel is finally hopping on the Chris Hogan train as he is now only $300 cheaper than Cooks. I still think he is the go to guy on this offense. The Jets secondary isn’t bad. Their two young corners will be able to limit Cooks’s deep threat, giving Hogan more chances in the slot.
• Elijah McGuire (5,600) — Bilal Powell is still questionable as I am writing this, and McGuire has shown flashes of brilliance when given the chance. He is averaging 5.2 YPC and 11 YPR, so against the worst defense in the league, and with Powell either out, or limited, I am expecting a big game from McGuire in a game that will probably be closer than some people think.

Buccaneers/Cardinals -

• Adrian Peterson (5,000) (Hate) — People seem to be hopping back on the AP bandwagon now that he is on the Cardinals, but I saw what he did last year in limited action behind the Vikings terrible offensive line, and the Cardinals are just as bad this year. I wish the best for AP, but I don’t see him as a fantasy asset.
• DeSean Jackson (6,400) — So are Winston and D-Jax finally on the same page? I think last week was definitely a step in the right direction after a very slow start of the season for Jackson. Patrick Peterson is going to have his hands full with Mike Evans and if Winston and Jackson’s chemistry wasn’t just temporary, I would expect another 100+ yard game.

Rams/Jaguars -

• Leonard Fournette (8,600) — Both RBs in this game are going to put up numbers, but in different ways. Fournette is 2nd in the league in rushing, and even against a solid Rams defense, the Jags will be feeding Fournette the ball as a way to keep it out of Blake Bottles’s hands.

Image courtesy of: https://www.huffingtonpost.com

• Todd Gurley (8,400) — Gurley is really exceeding expectations this year, and he currently has 646 yards from scrimmage with 7 TDs. The Jags defense is incredible this year, but their run defense is just weak enough for Gurley to still be an amazing pick. Goff had some turnover issues last week and the Rams will want to keep the ball away from the ballhawks in the Jags’s secondary.

Chargers/Raiders -

• Phillip Rivers (7,200) — Rivers is currently the 11th ranked fantasy QB, but 2 of his last 3 games have been 3TD performances. He is facing an Oakland defense that is one of the worst in the league and with Melvin Gordon becoming more of a threat in the passing game as well this year, Rivers has all the tools he needs to pick apart this defense.
• Jared Cook (5,400) — Amari Cooper still sucks this year. Crabtree is good but can be inconsistent. Carr very well might not be playing. Jared Cook provides either QB with a safety net, and the red zone threat that Cooper used to be. I would avoid the Raiders as a whole this week, but if you need a value play at tight end, Cook could be your guy.

Steelers/Chiefs -

• Ben Roethlisberger (7,400) (Hate) — If Ben says he doesn’t have it anymore, I’m gonna go ahead and trust him. He may have corrected what he said, but his play these last few weeks has shown us all that he isn’t mentally there. Bell is gonna have to carry the offense more than normal until Ben hopefully gets out of this funk.
• Harrison Butker (4,700) — Kicker? Yup. Kicker. What about Hunt, Smith, Hill, or Kelce?? All of those guys are constantly threats, I’m just trying to help you find value and picks that will exceed their expectations. Butker had 17 and 21 point games back to back and after missing his first NFL attempt ever, this guy is back to his college ways. In a game that may be close, the Chiefs won’t be afraid to give Butker 50+ yard attempts since they know he has the leg, and I see him as the high scoring kicker once again this week.

Giants/Broncos -

• CJ Anderson (7,000) — The Broncos will be playing ahead for probably most of the game, so Anderson is going to get his carries. Janoris Jenkins and Eli Apple are going to give the dynamic Broncos receivers some trouble, but regardless the healthy Broncos are going to stomp the crippled Giants.
• Evan Engram (5,300) — Speaking of crippled Giants, 47% of the Giants receptions this year will not be on the field this weekend. When you take out the injured Giants, Engram makes up over 25% of the team’s receptions. He is going to be the one pass catcher Eli can trust, and in my opinion he is the best value play at tight end this weekend.

Best of luck to all of you daily fantasy addicts like myself. And remember, if you win big because of some advice I gave you, don’t be afraid to share.

Skol Vikes.