No Longer Cookin’
Well… to be honest, I was hoping my first Vikings related article with BCO would be about Stefon Diggs’ emergence as an elite receiver or how the Vikings FINALLY had all the pieces to be a serious contender in the NFC North. Instead, I am writing about what to think now that one of those pieces has a torn ACL and is out for the season.
When Cook first went down, I freaked out. Then, I saw him walk under his own power into the locker room and thought “okay cool, it might just be a hyperextension or something minor”. Then the near full ACL tear news came out and man that hurt. Cook is fun to watch. Even back when he was shredding defenses at FSU I knew he would be a special player in the league and I knew we got a 1st round back in the 2nd round, so I was stoked. Then, he went on to exceed expectations the first three weeks and into the 4th week. Now I’m looking at how the offense will cope without him and how Cook’s absence affects a few key players individually and the Vikings offense as a whole.
Running Backs
Latavius Murray- Murray was signed this off season from the Raiders where he had over 1000 yards from scrimmage and12 TDs and averaged 4 YPC in 2016. Murray is now in his 4th year in the league and through 4 games with the Vikings, he has 46 yards from scrimmage and is averaging a weak 2.7 YPC. Not the kind of production the Vikings were expecting from someone they signed to a 3-year, $15 million contract. Granted, Murray has been recovering from off season ankle surgery and he hasn’t really had the chance to shine with Cook exceeding expectations before his injury. However, even with Cook out, I don’t think Murray is going to find himself producing at the level he did in 2016. The Vikings currently have the 6th best passing offense in the league and I think they will lean on that even more now that Cook is out. In his 3 years for the Raiders, Murray had 91 receptions averaging 7 YPR but never scored a receiving TD. McKinnon, who we will look at next, is bound to see an increased role in the passing game while Murray fills the role of a bigger back on short down and goal line situations.
Jerick McKinnon- I’ve liked McKinnon since he came into the league. He isn’t your typical RB. He played QB in a triple option offense at Georgia Southern and he is relatively small at 5’9 and 205 pounds. However, despite his size, he is a freak athlete. He scored in the 92nd percentile or higher at every combine event, 80th or higher for all backs, and is the strongest RB to ever participate in the bench press with 32 reps. Fun Fact- based on the NFL’s sometimes obscure measurements, Jerick McKinnon is the most athletic back in the NFL. In 2014, his rookie season when AP was suspended, McKinnon averaged 4.8YPC and managed 27 receptions. In 2015, AP came back to lead the league in rushing so McKinnon’s role greatly decreased, but he still averaged a respectable 5.2 YPC on 52 attempts. His yards per reception also increased from 5.0 to 8.2. Based on his first two years, you would think that he had a lot of potential as the featured back on a team. Then, the Vikings lost AP to injury so it was McKinnon’s time to shine. Except it wasn’t… because the Vikings 2016 offensive line happened. They ranked 32nd in run blocking efficiency and McKinnon saw his YPC average tank down to 3.4. His catch rate, however, was 81.1% and ranked 10th among qualifying RBs. This year, the Vikings offensive line is 5th in run blocking efficiency, and with one of the best WR duos in the league, McKinnon should see a lot of opportunities rushing the ball and catching out the backfield. He’s quick in space so I expect the Vikings to utilize him a lot more and I wouldn’t be surprised if he saw a career year even though it will only be over 12 games.
Pass Catchers
Kyle Rudolph- Rudolph had a career year in the Vikings check down offense last year with 83 receptions, 840 yards, and 7 TDs. Through 4 games this year, he has 10 receptions for 109 yards. Not the kind of production Rudolph and his fantasy owners have been expecting. Well now its his time to shine. One main reason the Vikings averaged the shortest air yards per pass attempt last year is because Bradford had the shortest time between the snap and when he felt pressure, not giving the offense too many chances to air the ball out. Now that their offensive line is improved and they are putting up passing stats that they haven’t seen since the Moss/Carter days, the loss of their star running back only means that they will lean more on the passing game, which is so much better than it was last year. Rudolph’s targets and receptions are going to see a bump overall, most importantly in the red zone, where he has been a threat his entire career. With only 1 TD through the first four games, I will go on record saying that Rudolph will beat his total of 7 last year thanks to the loss of a major goal line threat and the revamped Vikings offensive line, giving more opportunities for whoever is under center to pass the ball to the big man in the middle.
Stefon Diggs- Diggs is currently leading the league in receiving yards and is averaging 17.8 yards per reception. He is behind Adam Thielen in receptions, but has 4 TDs so far on the year. Through the first 4 games, Diggs is really coming into his own as one of the top receivers in the league and is a constant threat for a big play. Last year, Diggs had the 4th highest receptions per game average and became the first player in NFL history to record back to back games with at least 13 receptions. He is the man in Minnesota and he has shown this year that no matter who is under center, he can get open and make some amazing catches. Diggs has been consistent so far this year and is on pace for a 1,500 yard, 16 TD career year so expect an increased role from the league’s leading receiver.
Adam Thielen- The good ole home grown, undrafted, practice squad player turned league leading big play receiver through 4 games. Exactly how he had it drawn up a few years ago. Thielen is coming off of a career year with 967 yards and 5 TDs. He currently leads the league with 7 receptions of at least 20 yards and is 3rd overall in receiving yards. Unfortunately unlike Diggs and Rudolph, I think Thielen will be hurt without Cook. Defenses will no longer have to game plan for a 3-down back that was 3rd in the league in yards from scrimmage. That means they can focus more attention on the passing game. Thielen is a big play threat, but not in the way Diggs is. Diggs can get the yards after the catch that Thielen can’t. Thielen has always been the guy you would air it out to and he would make the tough catch with his signature golden gloves. He had the highest yards per reception on the Vikings last year but fell short of Diggs and Rudolph in receptions by 15 and 14 respectively and that is where I unfortunately see him the rest of this season. Yes, the offensive line is much better and the big play opportunities will be there more than they were last year, but I see Rudolph and Diggs taking the reigns in terms of targets. Not to say Thielen and Diggs won’t remain one of the more dynamic receiving duos in the league, but Thielen wont see the increased productivity Diggs will benefit from.
Overall- As a whole, this Vikings offensive unit is miles above what is was last year and that is largely due to a much improved offensive line and the consequential emergence of a league leading WR duo. Will they take a step back now that Cook is out? Yes. Will they fade back to the depths of offensive productivity they had last year? No. The NFC North is a good division this year, so I unfortunately would not put the Vikings in the playoffs unless Zimmer and Pat Shurmur can establish some sort of running game at least similar to what they had with Cook. This is still an elite defense with the weapons on offense, so a winning season is very much on the table. We will just have to see how the unit as a whole adapts over the next few weeks with the return of Bradford. Best of luck to the Vikings and prayers up to Cook. Last time a Vikings RB tore his ACL, the world saw a 2000 yard rusher win the league MVP in the following season. Only time will tell if history repeats itself.
