Pick 6: CFB Week 6
Our week-by-week journey through the trials and tribulations of gambling during the college football season continues for Week 6.
College football is by no means a domain in which I would consider myself an expert. However, college football is something I love to spend my Saturdays, Thursdays, and Tuesdays (shout-out :) watching, and the level of interest is always much higher with money on the line. So follow along in this journey with me throughout the college football season to see if the money I should be using to invest in blockchain turns out to provide a much higher return than ethereum…or if I’m really as dumb as Vegas thinks I am.
Chris and Griffin will also be supplying their picks, but with no monetary incentive.
With Griffin looking forward to the Curb Your Enthusiasm new season premiere on Sunday night, new beat writer Pat Chevalier filled in and did pretty, pretty, pretty, good. While by the end of it, I’m sure we were all rooting for the downfall of Florida State, our staff having a -7.5 line made the debacle in Winston-Salem an all-around loss, as the Seminoles were able to pull out the W, but not cover.
Chris and Pat’s allegiance to their alma mater paid off, as Georgia Tech put an absolute stomping on North Carolina, leading Kirk Herbstriet to say that the Yellow Jackets are a team to not sleep on in the ACC:
Can’t wait for that late October moment of realization hits Kirk that has hit all of the Yellow Jacket faithful every year since 1990, that those emotions are nothing more than false hope.
Pat went out on a limb siding with Luke Falk and Washington State over Sam Darnold and the USC Trojans, and picked up a W in a surprisingly low-scoring, run-oriented Friday late night Pac-12 match-up. We all slept on the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (who are now road favorites against FSU on Saturday!!) and split the afternoon and night contests between Michigan State and Iowa, and Virginia Tech and Clemson.
This week’s slate features games from the SEC, Big 12, and ACC, many of which have enormous spreads. Let’s check out how the team at BCO picked:
Georgia @ Vanderbilt
Saturday, October 7, 12:00 PM EST
Line: UGA by 17.5
Aaron: While it’s becoming more and more clear that Tennessee’s program has turned into a dumpster fire under Butch Jones, Georgia’s dismantling of the Volunteers by the score of 41–0 on the road was impressive as all hell. The Bulldog defense swarms to the ball, and hasn’t allowed more than 19 points in a game this season. They’ve allowed only 3 points in its last two games combined!! This is also a Vanderbilt team that got beat 59–0 to Alabama at home just two weeks ago. This UGA team is no longer playing to just win games…they’re playing for style points, blowouts, and the potential to rise into the top-4 and a spot in the college football playoff. Georgia rolls behind studly true freshman quarterback Jake Fromm and their aggressive defense.
Griff: Vanderbilt’s got a pretty solid squad this year by Vanderbilt standards, but they’re facing a wrecking ball of a Georgia team that’s been punishing teams week by week. The Commodores keep it close in the first half, but the Bulldogs run away with this one and cover.
COB: I really don’t like that all 3 of us picked this but Georgia is really on a tear. They just murdered Mississippi State and Tennessee in back to back games, outscoring them to the tune of 72–3. On the other hand, Vandy has allowed 97 points and 1,144 yards in their past 2 SEC games (including an absurd 496 rushing yards to Alabama). UGA’s offense goes through Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, and DeAndre Swift, who have combined for 968 yards and 10 TDs on the ground so far this season. Sounds like a classic case of Vandy’s weakness being UGA’s strength. On top of that, you know the players returning from last season have a bad taste in their mouth after Zach Cunningham was able to stop Isaiah Mckenzie on 4th and 1 to give Vandy a 17–16 win. No way Vandy stops the red-hot Dawgs.
The Pick: UGA (-17.5)
Iowa State @ Oklahoma
Saturday, October 7, 12:00 PM EST
Line: Oklahoma by 28
Aaron: Iowa State’s 2–2 record may not show that they can keep up with the class of the Big 12 in Norman, especially after their abysmal offensive performance against Texas last week, but this game screams bounce back performance. I expect David Montgomery to get the ball in his hands significantly more than he did against Texas (only 12 touches for the stud running back) and for the Cyclones to keep this one closer than four touchdowns.
Griff: 28 is too damn high. Oklahoma has looked crazy good this season but Iowa State is far more talented than they’ve been in years past and are apparently not getting credit for hanging tough with Texas last week. Sooners win but the Cyclones cover. A name to remember for NFL Draft nuts: Iowa State WR Allen Lazard. The guy had offers from Notre Dame, Michigan, Ohio State, LSU, and a host of other top schools coming out of high school, but chose to stay in-state and play for the Cyclones. Three years later, he’s caught passes in 38 straight games and has 19 career touchdowns. Dude is a stud.
The Pick: Iowa State (+28)
COB: Sure, Iowa State just played Texas to a 17–7 and Oklahoma needed a late Baker Mayfield-led drive to knock off Baylor 49–41, but I don’t think either of those results are indicative of how good either of these teams are. Iowa State got away with a lot against Texas. Jacob Park threw 3 INTs but Texas wasn’t able to cash in on them, only scoring 10 points off of them despite taking over in plus territory on 2 of them. Oklahoma’s offense won’t have any issues scoring, considering they’re putting up 48 ppg, 400 passing yards per game, and 600 yards of total offense per game. If and when Park turns the ball over, the Sooners will make them pay. On the other side of the ball, the Sooners got a wake-up call against Baylor. I would expect them to buckle down against an Iowa State team that ranks 87th in the country in total offense, compared to Baylor who is ranked 45th. This game is the kind of game that Mayfield and the Sooners need to run away with to show that the Baylor game was a fluke. The Cyclones forgot who daddy was and now Baker’s gonna have to spank ’em for it.
The Pick: Oklahoma (-28)
Texas Tech @ Kansas
Saturday, October 7, 12:00 PM EST
Line: Texas Tech by 17.5
Aaron: Kansas lost its second and third games of the season to Central Michigan and Ohio by 18 and 12 respectively. Texas Tech can put points on the board in a hurry and has clear points of emphasis that they’ll want to improve on from the Oklahoma State game (read: stopping any play for less than seven yards). Red Raiders cover easily on the road with our boy Cole Moos getting plenty of time on the field.
Griff: Somewhere in West Texas, Kliff Kingsbury is breathing a sigh of relief. Finally, the Red Raiders have been able to field a somewhat competent defense. What this means for Kansas? Pure annihilation.
COB: Kansas’ defense is bad. They’re letting up 39.8 ppg, which is in the bottom 10 in FBS. Conversely, Texas Tech scores the 12th most points in FBS at 42.3 points per game. Sounds like a recipe for disaster. Add that to the fact that the Red Raiders, like Griff said, have a passable defense and have forced 10 turnovers and Peyton Bender has turned it over 9 times (7 INTs, 2 Fumbles lost). Not much here to inspire hope in the Jayhawks.
The Pick: Texas Tech (-17.5)
Notre Dame @ North Carolina
Saturday, October 7, 3:30 PM EST
Line: Notre Dame by 15.5
Aaron: This is week six of our Pick 6 series. Three out of the previous five weeks, I’ve picked North Carolina to cover as an underdog. Every time they’ve screwed me. After watching bits of the UNC vs. GT game this past Saturday, it finally became clear that this team is just plain old not good. Throw in the nearly double-digit number of contributors they have lost to injury, and a Notre Dame team trying to tack on another W before a match-up with Southern Cal, and the Fighting Irish look like they’re primed for a big win. Notre Dame 38, UNC 17.
Griff: To put it simply, UNC is too beat up to run with a team as talented as Notre Dame. This one shouldn’t be close.
COB: UNC just got demolished by Georgia Tech’s option attack. Notre Dame also happens to be very good at running the ball, led by Josh Adams who’s currently the 4th leading rusher in FBS (658 yards). But wait…there’s more! They also have dual threat QB Brandon Wimbush, who’s passed for 783 yards and 6 TDs to go with 402 rushing yards and 8 TDs, and Dexter Williams who has rushed for 214 yards and 4 TDs. Overall, the Fighting Irish have racked up 1,507 rush yards and 20 TDs. If the Tar Heels couldn’t stop GT’s one dimensional offense, they have no hope of stopping Notre Dame offense, especially their rushing attack.
The Pick: Notre Dame (-15.5)
West Virginia @ TCU
Saturday, October 7, 3:30 PM EST
Line: TCU by 13
Aaron: This one is going to be a fun game to watch. West Virginia (48.8 PPG) and TCU (47.8) are the 2nd and 5th highest scoring offenses in the country, but not in the typical Big 12 fashion that you’d expect. TCU and West Virginia are the top two rushing offenses in the Big 12, separated by barely more than a yard. TCU averages 232.3 yards per game. West Virginia averages 231.0. I expect this game to be a shoot-out, and West Virginia’s 3rd down defense (allow conversions on only 31.7% of tries, 2nd in the Big 12) to be the difference maker that allows them to not only cover on the road, but to win outright in Fort Worth.
The Pick: West Virginia(+13)
Griff: West Virginia lost a ton of talent off last year’s team. I wasn’t convinced they’d be able to run with the upper tier teams in the Big 12 due to the lack of depth in both line groups and in the defensive back seven. They’ve managed to hold up pretty well so far, but are facing a different animal in Week 6 with TCU. With both had coaches having two weeks to prepare, I expect the defenses to be more prepared for the unique challenges presented by each respective offense. Because of that, I like TCU here. They’ve got a trio of stud running backs in Darius Anderson, Sewo Olonilua, and Kyle Hicks that should be able to run wild against a porous Mountaineer D. Dana Holgorsen and the boys keep it close for three quarters, but the Frogs pull away late. 45–31 TCU.
COB: This game is going to be a classic no-defense Big-12 shootout. West Virginia comes in at the 2nd ranked in scoring and yards per game in the FBS while TCU comes in at 5th and 17th, respectively. West Virginia started off the season with a touch loss to VT and hasn’t played any serious competition since. Conversely, TCU has played 2 decent teams in Arkansas and SMU before taking down supposed Big-12 dark horse Oklahoma State by holding off a late comeback by the Cowboys 2 weeks ago. If they can hold Mason Rudolph (much better than Will Grier) and the 3rd ranked Cowboys offense to 31 points, they can do it against West Virginia too. If this game was the week after that win, I’d say TCU loses due to a case of big-win hangover but the week off allows them to refocus and prepare for another shootout. TCU 52–35.
The Pick: TCU (-13)
Virginia Tech @ Boston College
Saturday, October 7, 7:15 PM EST
Line: VT by 16.5
Aaron: Virginia Tech hasn’t lost back -to-back games since 2015. Coming off a loss to #2 Clemson in which they performed admirably, I look for the Hokies to put a bludgeoning against a terrible Boston College team who they beat 49–0 in 2016.
COB: Josh Jackson has probably been the best QB to hit the field for VT since Tyrod Taylor. He’s made good decisions almost all year (11 TDs, 1 INT prior to the Clemson game) and has great chemistry with stud receiver Cam Phillips. Unfortunately, the strength of the BC defense is their pass defense, having held Notre Dame and Clemson to 240 combined passing yards. In those same 2 games, though, they got absolutely gashed in the run game, allowing 857 yards on the ground. I think Cam Phillips is more dangerous than any receiver on Clemson or Notre Dame and will be able to stretch the field for VT, allowing them to run the ball with their 5-headed rushing attack. None of their backs (or Josh Jackson) has over 200 yards rushing, but they’ve combined for 767 yards and 5 TDs. I think that the threat of Cam Phillips will open things up in the run game early, which will, in turn, open the passing game up for a few big plays as the game gets going. VT comes back in a big way to show they’re the 2nd best team in the ACC.
The Pick: Virginia Tech (-16.5)
Griff: I’ve rolled with the Eagles before and I’m about to do it again. With VT coming off a high intensity, emotional matchup with Clemson, this is a prime letdown spot for the Hokies. I don’t expect them (in the least) to lose this game, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Tech puts together a sloppy offensive performance up in Boston against a decent BC front seven. VT wins 21–10 in a game you won’t want to watch.
The Pick: Boston College (+16.5)
Questions, comments, concerns? Think we’re right? Agree? Disagree? Hit us up on Twitter. We’d love to hear your thoughts.
