Pat Chevy’s Three and Out: Week 5
There’s an old adage in sports: “Defense wins championships”. Well folks, luckily for you, I’m a champion, so I’m here to defend my self-proclaimed title as the best NFL bettor on the BCO Staff.
Well how are you going to do that, Chevy? Simple. Each week I will pick a game that each of the original BCO Staff (Aaron, Chris, and Griffin) challenges me to, AKA my “Three”. After I struggle my way through those, I’ll take on Vegas by picking my upset of the week, AKA my “Out”.
I would imagine that most of these games will end up being less attractive lines than the common bettor would aim to take. If you’re looking for a reason to get yourself deep into a random game… well, here’s your chance. Hang on tight, this one’s gunna get bumpy.
Game 1, Aaron’s Pick
New England Patriots (-5.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are fresh off a last second game-winning field goal from Nick Folk and are getting Doug Martin back between the tackles. Anyone who watched Hard Knocks this year knows that Jameis has control of this offense. He’s done a nice job spreading the ball to the open guy while also feeding target leader Mike Evans 32 times in just three games. Last year, the New England Patriots lost only TWO games on their way to hoist the Lombardi trophy for the 5th time in Tom Brady’s career. This year… they’ve lost two games in four weeks. Do you think Tom Brady is panicking? He is not. In fact, he almost never panics after a loss. Here are his game lines after his last three losses:
Week 2, 2017: 30/39, 447 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, Patriots win 36–20
Week 11, 2016: 24/40, 280 yards, 4TDs, 0 INTs, Patriots win 30–17
Week 5, 2016: 28/40, 406 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, Patriots win 33–13
You see where I’m going with this, right? You could argue that the defense of the teams (Saints, 49ers, and Browns) were not great and his stats were inflated because of it. Fine, take that route. But then take a look at the Bucs, who are going to be without Kwon Alexander and most likely Lavonte David, Keith Tandy, and T.J. Ward. Their defense has fended off Mike Glennon’s Bears, got manhandled by Case Keenum, and gave Eli Manning a comfortable amount of time in the pocket for the first time this year. As a Giants’ fan, I can tell you that this time wasn’t due to their offensive line improving. Tom Brady is going to meticulously pick apart this “defense” with a healthy Gronk and a developing chemistry with Brandin Cooks at his disposal. I hate that Aaron likes this team.
The Pick: Patriots (-5.5)
Game 2, Chris’s Pick
Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans (-1)
I never thought I would be saying this while Alex Smith was starting under center, but my goodness, the Chiefs are fun to watch. Anyone who drafted Kareem Hunt in fantasy learned very quickly that the sky is the limit for this kid. The stud rookie running back is averaging 125.5 yards per game and is a perfect 13/13 receiving to tack on 39.3 yards per game through the air. Tyreke Hill’s 4.25 forty time keeps the defense on their toes while Travis Kelce keeps them honest down the seam. The Chiefs defense has actually been their weak spot this year, ranking 26th in total yards allowed per game (359.5), but they have also been winning the turnover battle, as shown by their 4th ranked +5 give/take margin.
Enter the Heisman-winning rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson and the fired up Houston Texans fresh off a dominating victory over the Titans. The Clemson connection Watson has revived with star receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who has been peppered with an outrageous 49 targets through four games, is now set up to be complimented with the return of Will Fuller V, who hauled in two TDs in his first game back last week. The Texans defense is, dare I say, healthy. They have been tough to move on, allowing only 291.5 yards per game, good for 5th best in the league. Throw in the home crowd support they’ll receive in this game and a banged up KC offensive line and Alex Smith should be making tough decisions all night. Though I see this game being close from wire to wire, I think the winner will be the team that makes the least mistakes and wins the turnover battle. I’ve pegged Kansas City as my SuperBowl contender in the AFC and I think they take care of business on the road, proving themselves in a primetime slot for a second week in a row.
The Pick: Chiefs (+1)
Game 3, Griffin’s Pick
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (NL)
Man, this game sucks. I’m not going to look at numbers much because Griffin’s Bears are about as inconsistent as his personal life between the sheets and the Vikings can’t seem to find a quarterback that can stay on the field for more than one season at a time. Had Dalvin Cook not gone down last week (damn, what a shame), I’d tell you I’d pick the Vikings -7.5 no matter who was under center, even though I don’t think the line would’ve been that large. But Cook is done for the year, so let’s think a little harder.
The matchup to think about is simple: Mitch Trubisky vs. Vikings defense. Look, I like Trubisky. I like his chances to be a franchise quarterback for the Bears as time moves on, and I like his attitude approaching his first game as if he “won’t be under pressure as long as he’s prepared”, like his high school coach once told him. What I don’t like is the situation he’s walking into. The Vikings are coming off a hard-fought division loss in which they held Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions to 14 points. The week before that they picked Jameis three times. This Vikings defense is going into Soldier Field ready to prey on a rookie that I am not convinced is ready to meet the challenge. I’ll take Minnesota, which means I’m taking 3/3 road teams in the three primetime games this week. Yikes.
The Pick: Vikings (Bradford up to -7.5)/(Keenum up to -5.5)
My Out, Upset of the Week
Buffalo Bills over Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Last week I told my buddy Shane that I was not going to bet on a game the Bills were playing in until I thought I figured out who they were. They went on to be the first road victors in Mercedes-Benz Stadium against the Atlanta Falcons that week, and I am now ready to make a bet on them. Now let me be clear — I’m not picking the Bills this week if they’re up against a team like the Patriots, Steelers, or even the Falcons again. I don’t think they are part of the upper echelon of the NFL. But they’re going to Cincinnati to kick the living crap out of Andy Dalton and company. Buffalo can make an argument that they are the best defense in the league right now. They’ve forced seven turnovers already this season (2nd in the league) and boast the fewest points per game allowed (13.5), shutting down the Jets, Panthers, Broncos, and Falcons, in sequence.
Enter Cincinnati, who are a deceiving 27th in the league in points per game (16.0). Under new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, the Bengals have seemingly started to find their rhythm and have scored 24 poitns against Green Bay and 31 points against Cleveland in the past two games. That number will come back down against the stout Buffalo defense. Side prediction. LeSean McCoy does not have a rushing TD this season. He’ll have 2 this week. #BillsMafia will be waiting for their team to return home from their two week road trip with a shocking 4–1 record. I just picked 4 road teams. That’s a lot of unhappy fans this week.
