Post Series Recovery-Bias Busting
Hi folks. Harry Doyle here. I have not left my lounge chair since last night, I keep replaying the game over and over again. Where did things go wrong, where did they go right? I am paralyzed.
When I started building the Harry Doyle method a few weeks ago, I kept telling myself to be objective, minimize bias, don’t get caught in simplifying complex situations for the sake of speed. Build from an unbiased perspective.
In the early games Kluber v. Lester and Bauer v. Arrieta I held to my principles. However, as the games progressed AND I collected more data AND my analysis was appearing to prove accurate — bias started creeping into my method. “This is working, ignore other ideas, double down on existing investments”.
During the game last night, I posted about the break down of Corey Kluber while reinforcing my pre-game analysis.
Corey failed the Harry Doyle model in 8 categories. Zero strike outs. Zero natural ground outs. Behind in the count. Less junk pitches. Less strikes on first pitch. Abandoned his curve ball. Hit a batter. Did not locate his two-seam fastball. This analysis was cathartic as I wallowed in the misery.
This morning I read this most excellent article on battling “Cognitive Bias”.
This concept is not new to me. At Google — we have lots of training on conscience and unconscious bias busting, but this article does such an efficient job breaking down the traps. It also contextualizes the breakdowns from a data perspective. This was enlightening, as my association with bias busting has been mainly from the human element perspective e.g. “Don’t judge, because you don’t like that sweater”, “Listen — even you don’t like what you are hearing”, “Don’t force your perspective, before understanding others first”.
Over the next week I will be exploring where the Harry Doyle model failed Corey Kluber and the Indians. 1) I didn’t see everything behind the game. I only looked at it through the lens I polished. 2) I was caught in the trap of focusing on the “weight” of past performance as the key indicator of future performance. 3) As Harry Doyle, I wanted Corey Kluber to perform well.
I am going to get off of my couch now. There is always next year AND to get there I need to breakdown my breakdowns and confirm the mistakes as to not make them again. More Harry Doyle to come.
