Finding Russell Westbrook’s Sweet Spot
Stop me if you’ve heard this sentence before: Russell Westbrook did the seemingly impossible yesterday. That’s a conglomeration of words that has become synonymous with the bizarre, beautiful 2016–17 NBA season.
On Tuesday night, the Oklahoma City Thunder lost a gut-wrenching, symbolic home game to the Portland Trail Blazers 126–121, despite holding an 11-point lead after the first quarter. And Westbrook did something the league has never seen: he scored 58 points, and subsequently took a leap backwards from the MVP trophy.
Westbrook’s MVP candidacy has gone from favorite to unlikely, and yesterday’s performance didn’t symbolize that so much as enforce it. Despite Westbrook’s ungodly — or rather, very Godly — scoring performance, the Thunder lost their fourth game in a row, all to teams sitting well below .500. Since the turn of the calendar, OKC is 14–16, with losses to the Bucks, Timberwolves, Hornets, Mavericks, Suns, and Blazers twice. Their differential on the year has plummeted to -0.2, and the home court advantage they were once fighting for is all but out of reach. They’ve settled into the 7th seed in the West, and a likely fatal first round date with the Spurs.
With nine assists and three rebounds in Tuesday’s loss, Westbrook took one step closer to losing his historic triple-double average, which happens to also be his MVP lifeline. A once-in-a-generation statline with pretty, rounded numbers may garner MVP votes from a fair number of media members, but without that arbitrary cutoff, Westbrook is just a really good player on a decidedly mediocre team. Since the ABA-NBA merger, only one MVP (Moses Malone in 81–82) was on a team that didn’t finish in the top-three in their conference. We assign a lot of value to triple-doubles, but take them away from Westbrook and it’s nearly impossible to see him leapfrog the equally impressive seasons of LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, and James Harden — who play for one, two, and three-seeds, respectively.
It’s easy to look at Westbrook’s big night — he scored or assisted on 66.9% of the Thunder’s points, and scored an astonishing 1.61 points per minute — and say his heroics were wasted in a loss. It might be more accurate, however, to say that his heroics were misplaced.
Too Much of a Good Thing
If Westbrook taking 39 shots last night was alarming to you, then you probably haven’t been following him very closely this season; Tuesday’s affair was the 12th time in 64 games that he’s attempted 30 or more field goals. You can probably guess the problem: the Thunder have won only four of those games, and have a differential of -1.2.
Interestingly enough, Westbrook is shooting very well in his high-volume games. His FG% of 42.4% is nearly identical to his season average of 42.2%, so it’s not like he’s chucking up a bunch of bad shots and shooting the Thunder right out of games.
But he’s shooting too much. We forget, sometimes, that an elite scorer impacts the offense with far more than just his counting stats. Westbrook’s offensive influence extends beyond point and assist totals; his constant threat opens up the court for opponents, his passes set up open shooters, his movement disrupts the defense, and his drives pull in defenders like a whirlpool, setting up Thunder teammates for easy offensive rebounds.
So when Westbrook puts up 35 or 40 shots at a 42% clip, it’s easy to think he’s doing the best thing for his team. Then you consider that his teammates combine to shoot 46.1%, and suddenly Westbrook’s high-volume wizardry gains perspective.
On nights when Westbrook puts up 30–45 shots, he often turns into a ball-stopping, isolation, kill-or-be-killed player. The ball movement and player movement stops, which means that when Westbrook does pass, his teammates are no longer in a situation to shoot that 46.1% clip. With this stagnation comes a larger percentage of jumpers for Westbrook, which means fewer offensive rebound opportunities, and more transition situations for the opponent.
One of Westbrook’s greatest assets is his Will to Win. But as Kobe Bryant reminded us down the stretch of his career, the Will to Win frequently gets its ass kicked by the Will to Throw a Good Bounce Pass Within the Flow of the Offense.
Too Little of a Good Thing
The above segment may suggest that the fewer shots Westbrook takes, the better; such is not the case. Westbrook is an elite offensive force, and the team benefits from his aggressive scoring — within reason. When Westbrook shoots a very low (for him) number of shots, the team struggles just as much as when he takes too many. On the year, Westbrook has taken fewer than 20 shots on 13 occasions. The Thunder are 6–7 in those games, with a horrid differential of -3.77.
Most shocking is how poorly Westbrook shoots when he’s being conservative; in these games, his shooting clip is a measly 37.9%, which is worse than former-teammate Serge Ibaka is shooting on threes alone (and Austin Rivers! Austin Rivers!). Of course, there is some correlation to consider. When teams play great defense against Westbrook, both his percentages and attempts fall. When he’s having an off-night, he’s less likely to throw up 30 shots. When he shoots poorly the Thunder may get blown out, and he may not get the opportunity to come in and get to 20 or 30 attempts.
Still, Westbrook is a player who thrives on rhythm — he’ll take 15 shots regardless of the game, but if he and the offense are in a flow, he’ll take (and make) a lot more. Since he’s far and away OKC’s best player, it’s imperative that he looks for his shot first, and gets his teammates involved in the offense as a response to the defense’s first move. When he tries to set up the offense in a more traditional point guard way — think Chris Paul — rather than as a release valve when he’s looking for his own shot, his teammates get worse looks, and, worst of all, Westbrook himself struggles to score.
Not Too Much, Not Too Little, but Juuust Right
In 39 of the Thunder’s games, Westbrook has attempted between 20 and 29 shots. The Thunder have won 25 of those games, a winning percentage (.641) that would put them on pace for 53 wins, and the fifth-best record in the Association. Their differential of 1.41 isn’t quite as bullish, but it still represents a dramatic improvement for the team.
When Westbrook is occupying this sweet spot, he and the team are at their most efficient. He has shot 43.6% in these games, by being aggressive enough that opposing defenses must guard him like the wild bull that he is. He has worked within the rhythm of the offense on these occasions, so that defenses are never set, and never know whether to help off of a shooter or not.
It’s the Russell Westbrook sweetspot. Defenders, beware.
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