Everything to Know Heading Into the 2021 NBA Finals
The Bucks haven’t won a title since 1971, and the Suns have never won a championship. Who will win the 2021 NBA Championship?
At the end of an exhausting season that was defined by injuries and a war of attrition, we have our two NBA finalists: the Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks.
The Suns beat out the defending champions in Round 1, the Denver Nuggets in Round 2, and, most recently, the L.A. Clippers in Round 3. They have arguably been the most dominant team in the postseason, and between Devin Booker and Chris Paul, they have enjoyed some remarkable individual performances.
Paul was historically great in Phoenix’s past two elimination games, scoring 37 points and 41 points respectively. Booker, meanwhile, had two dominant performances in the first round to close out the Lakers, which was especially important since Paul was limited with a shoulder injury.
Meanwhile, the Bucks have exorcised most of their playoff demons, as they defeated the Miami Heat, who upset them in the 2020 Playoffs, and they overcame a historic performance in the Conference Semifinals by Kevin Durant. Recently, they just defeated the Atlanta Hawks, despite Antetokounmpo missing Games 5 and 6 with a hyperextended left knee.
Along the way, the Bucks’ role players, including Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, P.J. Tucker, and Pat Connaughton, have all shined at various points, and the Bucks’ decision to swap Eric Bledsoe for Jrue Holiday has paid dividends.
This matchup wasn’t expected, per se, but both Milwaukee and Phoenix were elite regular season teams, and they have players whose performance stays steady (or even improves) in Chris Paul, Jrue Holiday, and Khris Middleton.
So at the end of a treacherous, exhausting season with a compressed schedule, many injuries, and the reality of living through a pandemic, who will come out on top as NBA Champions?
1. What narratives or trends will you be most closely watching in the NBA Finals?
Spencer Young: Chris Paul’s legacy-defining postseason run. At 36, Paul has truly been remarkable: he fought through injury against the defending champions, he had one of the most efficient playoff performances ever against the Denver Nuggets, and he scored 41 points to eliminate the L.A. Clippers. Paul has heard many critics since his exit from Houston, with doubts about his health, contract, and performance. Now, with only a flawed Milwaukee Bucks team (with an injured Giannis Antetokounmpo) or a young Atlanta Hawks team in his path, Paul has a golden opportunity to solidify his legacy with a championship.
Orange Gildersleeve: Giannis Antetokonmpo’s title as a “regular season winner.” After the Greek Freak won back-to-back MVP awards, critics quickly realized that there’s only been one thing the Bucks have failed to do with the Greece native leading their team:win in the postseason. Giannis’ tenure with the Bucks has been defined by early postseason exits and disappointing failures his entire career up until this point, and after last year’s second-round exit, many wondered if he would ever get over the hump. This season he has done just that, and if this is the start of a dynasty of sorts for the Bucks, that narrative go away quickly.
2. Which under-the-radar players might be especially key in the NBA Finals?
Spencer Young: Bobby Portis. Portis is key for two primary reasons: he is the Bucks’ first option to replace Giannis Antetokounmpo in the starting lineup, and he is one of their most versatile players.
Portis isn’t good against traditional centers — he may struggle against Deandre Ayton, for instance — but he is an elite three-point shooter, has some mobility/switchability on defense, and, most importantly, can take advantage of mismatches in the post. His scoring ability will be so important because, in order to ease the load off of Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, the Bucks need scoring threats on the floor. In other words, Chris Paul and Devin Booker cannot rest on defense by guarding Portis, and, depending on who else takes the floor for Milwaukee, they will have to guard Middleton and Holiday for long stretches, which would wear them down physically. Lastly, Portis has some switchability on defense which may prove to be valuable if Coach Budenholzer adjusts his defensive schemes. More on that later.
Orange Gildersleeve: Cameron Payne. Payne was huge for the Suns when Chris Paul went down with his shoulder injury against the L.A. Lakers in Round 1, and Phoenix still needs him in the closing round.
After his ankle injury that kept him out for the rest of the game against the Clippers in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals, Payne just hasn’t looked the same. His numbers have dipped across the board, and that’s not a trend that the Suns want to continue. He’s only averaged 5.6 points per game, 4 assists, and 2.7 rebounds while shooting just 30 percent from the floor in the three games since that rolled ankle. He’s lacked the quicknees and burst he’s displayed throughout these playoffs, and has looked a step slow on defense. At his best, Payne is a flamethrower from three-point land, and has been a stone cold killer in efficiency under Chris Paul’s tutelage. He provides the team with valuable minutes while Paul rests and is the team’s second-best facilitator and an above-average rebounder to boot. If Payne’s ankle can’t heal in time and he’s still not the same during this Finals faceoff, that means a lot more minutes for CP3 and a much more strenuous workload, an issue Monty Williams shouldn’t have to deal with.
3. Who was the MVP of the Conference Finals?
Spencer Young: Jrue Holiday. Through three games of the Conference Finals, Holiday had one of the most unenviable tasks in the league: relentlessly defending Trae Young on defense and being a primary playmaker on offense. Yet, outside of a poor Game 3 where he scored just 6 points, Holiday averaged 25.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 9.6 assists. He was great as a scorer and a facilitator in the series; in particular, in Game 5, he was the catalyst that allowed Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez to enjoy career-best postseason scoring totals, as he repeatedly broke down the Hawks’ defense to set up others.
Honourable Mention: Chris Paul’s shot-making in Game 6 vs. the Clippers was one of the more impressive recent postseason performances, and it was eerily similar to when Paul had 41/10/7 to close out the Jazz in 2018. However, his play through his first three games — namely Games 3 and 4 — was uneven, and his struggles against a physical, switch-everything Clippers team resembled his struggles against the Warriors in 2019 (which resulted in him being traded for Russell Westbrook).
Orange Gildersleeve: Khris Middleton. Middleton has been ridiculed in the past because he always seems to underperform when it matters most, and although his efficiency has still dropped this postseason, he stepped up big time once Giannis went down with his knee injury as the bonafide number one option on offense. Over those 6 games against Atlanta, Middleton averaged 23.7 points per game, 8 rebounds, and 6.5 assists plus 1.7 steals on killer efficiency from the field. He also scored 25 points per game in the three games that he had to be the number one option, and still remained effective. It was reported that Giannis could have been cleared for a potential Game 7 if needed, so it’s great for the Bucks that Middleton was able to help close out the series in 6 to give Giannis some much needed extra rest.
4. Are any legacies at stake in the NBA Finals?
Spencer Young: While Giannis Antetokounmpo’s legacy might not be at stake, he needs to continue his elite postseason play. After two disappointing playoff outings in 2019 and 2020, Antetokounmpo has the opportunity to silence critics who question his postseason play (if healthy). At his best, Antetokounmpo’s two-way impact is as profound as any other top player in the league today, including Kevin Durant, LeBron James, and Steph Curry. With that being said, however, he also has some struggles as an isolation scorer and limitations as a free-throw shooter that may haunt him in the Finals.
If Antetokounmpo wins the title, his growing legacy will enjoy a major boost — how many homegrown superstars have stuck with their original teams to win a championship since the beginning of the 2010s?
Orange Gildersleeve: Chris Paul is in his age-36 season, and he’s not getting any younger. The time is now for Chris Paul to win a ring, and his first NBA Finals appearance might be his best chance to do it. After his wonky hammy prevented his best chance at a ring when he was still with the Houston Rockets against Golden State, his run with Phoenix will be his best chance to add the one accolade that’s evaded him his entire career.
If Paul can help guide this inexperienced Suns team to a championship, he’ll go from a great player to never win a ring to one of the best winning point guards in NBA history, if he’s not there already.
5. Which team do you think will win the Finals? Which player will be named Finals MVP?
Spencer Young: The Phoenix Suns in 7 games. There are many unpredictable variables here — including injuries to Chris Paul (torn ligaments in his hand), Devin Booker (broken nose), and Giannis Antetokounmpo (hyperextended knee) — which makes predicting the outcome of the series highly difficult. Still, the Bucks’ strategy of packing the paint (and leaving three-point shooters slightly open) is a major gamble, and one that might not pay off. I have questions on both sides of this series, including whether or not Paul and Booker can regain their form after a poor Conference Finals and the extent to which Mike Budenholzer will adjust his defensive schemes, but overall, the Suns seem to have the slight upper hand in this matchup.
Assuming the Suns win, Chris Paul appears to be the best candidate for FInals MVP. He is the catalyst for everything the Suns do offensively, and his presence raises the team’s play on the defensive end as well. From the team’s two regular season meetings, it’s fairly clear that Paul was the Suns’ best overall player, and his success against Milwaukee’s defense will be key to Phoenix’s hopes for the title. While I predict Booker will score the most points for Phoenix, it is Paul who will be the most important cog in Phoenix’s success.
Orange Gildersleeve: The Phoenix Suns in 7 games. Injuries have no doubt played a part in this year’s playoffs, and that trend will continue with perhaps the most important one of them all in the Greek Freak’s hyperextended knee. While there are plenty of amazing players injured heading into this matchup, no player can change their team’s future more than Giannis. The Bucks aren’t one dimensional without Giannis per se, but the Bucks have a gaping hole in their lineup without him. His knee will definitely hamper him in this series, and that’s bad news for the Bucks. Devin Booker will likely be hounded by Jrue Holiday all series, but we’ve yet to see Holiday give it his all on both sides of the ball in a single game so far this postseason, which is understandable considering that’s a lot to ask from any player.
With that in mind, Holiday will likely have to sacrifice some of his offensive game to try to contain Booker, and that leaves the Bucks with little to no scoring firepower with an injured Giannis. Add in that Brook Lopez will be shadowed by Deandre Ayton, and that leaves Khris Middleton as the only source of offense, which is not sustainable or ideal.
If the Suns can in fact win the championship, that leaves Booker as the most likely Finals MVP candidate. Chris Paul has been the most impactful player for the Suns this season, but Booker will be tasked with carrying most of the offensive burden this series. He’s shown he can handle it, and therefore his contributions on offense will likely be enough to earn him the Bill Russell Finals MVP Trophy.
6. How might coaching swing the result of the Finals?
Spencer Young: Can Mike Budenholzer solve the Suns’ pick and roll attack? At the very core of the Suns and Bucks’ coaching philosophies, there is a major issue: Coach Budenholzer concedes mid-range jumpshots and semi-contested threes in order to protect the rim, while the Suns actively seek out those same mid-range jumpers and kick-out three-pointers. That said, Budenholzer has shown a greater propensity to adjust in this postseason, if for no other reason than his job being at risk.
Will he try a “switch everything” defense? The Clippers found success with that strategy, and forcing Chris Paul and Devin Booker to play isolation basketball puts a ceiling on their efficiency and playmaking.
The Bucks, as a virtue of their talented roster, can play many types of defense. If Budenholzer takes too long to adjust his core defensive principles, however, then the Bucks could find themselves in an 0–2 hole before Giannis Antetokounmpo returns from injury — a losing proposition.
Orange Gildersleeve: Can Monty Williams take advantage of the Bucks leaving the perimeter open? Let’s look at Phoenix’s perspective here. Despite going on lengthy stretches in which it seemed that the Suns couldn’t miss from three-point land, the Suns have ranked towards the middle of the pack in three point shooting during these playoffs. Their 37.3 percent clip is literally dead in the middle at 8th, meaning that they will have to pick up the pace a little if they want to fully exploit this Milwaukee defense.
Yes, Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer has been flexible this postseason, but he has stuck with the same defense that has sunk the Bucks in years prior.
The Bucks love to pack the paint and concede a bunch of jumpshots, so if the Suns want to play playoff basketball, that three point shooting percentage will need to climb at least a little bit. Maybe that starts with starting power forward Jae Crowder, who’s not been his usual effective self throughout these playoffs and has only made 36.9 percent of his team-high 104 attempts. That may sound like asking too much, but the Suns just need him to be consistent if they want to shore up any potential weaknesses they may still have.
