Our Complete 2020 NBA Award Predictions
Find the top-five candidates for each award, honorable mentions, analysis of each player, and more in our 2020 award predictions
- This piece wouldn’t be possible without the help of Jaden, who helped me tremendously throughout this process
- For your convenience, our picks are summarized at the end of the piece
THE 2020 NBA season was full of electric performances, historically dominant teams, and newfound competitiveness that makes this year’s NBA Finals as compelling as ever.
With the Playoffs just around the corner, now feels like the right time to wrap up our 2020 NBA Awards Predictions, as there are only eight regular-season games (which are likely to resemble preseason games more than playoff games in terms of intensity).
Some key debates surround these awards, which I will outline now.
First, for the MVP, the question of how much voters and analysts should value LeBron James’ age (35) and mileage (17 seasons) to put his 2020 season in context greatly affects the MVP race.
Next, there is the question of whether or not players should be rewarded or penalized for being in a defensive scheme that is elite in part due to its philosophy, as opposed to its players. The most striking case of this effect is Milwaukee, with the Bucks having a historic defense due to its scheme and its players.
Going on, there is the ever-going Zion Williamson vs. Ja Morant debate, and whether or not a player who has played as little games as Zion should be penalized in voting.
Lastly, what is the definition of the Coach of the Year? Is it the coach on the best team (Mike Budenholzer), the coach who repaired a stained reputation (Frank Vogel), or a coach who exceeded everyone’s wildest expectations?
Find our answers to these questions with our official 2020 NBA Award Predictions.
Most Valuable Player
5. Kawhi Leonard
If it wasn’t for load management, Kawhi Leonard could potentially make a case to slot in as the #2 MVP candidate. His numbers improved across the board — particularly in the playmaking department, where he evolved to be L.A.’s #1 distributor in the starting lineup.
The Clippers were the #2 offense in the league this season; this is mostly due to Leonard being able to single-handedly create offense against all manners of defense. Against smaller guards, he used his refined post-up game and brute strength; against bigger wings, he used his ball-handling ability to either drive to the rim or shoot his signature mid-range jump-shot.
On defense, though he was surrounded by many other talented defenders, Leonard stood out as the Clip’s most effective player, being a pest at the point of attack and a menace off-the-ball. In Leonard’s minutes this season, which was limited by his load management and mysterious quadriceps injuries, L.A. was as good as any team in the league.
He also rose to the occasion on many high-profile games, including against LeBron and the Lakers on Opening Night and Christmas Day, but his 51 games played is an incriminating number that limits his MVP case.
4. Anthony Davis
It used to be a given that Anthony Davis would be a future MVP, but a few complacent seasons in New Orleans and the rise of Giannis Antetokounmpo has seriously compounded Davis’ future MVP odds.
A.D. was the driving force behind the Lakers’ renewed defense this season, both with his otherworldly rim-protection and his willingness to openly challenge LeBron James to be better on defense contributed to the Lakers’ fierce competitiveness on defense all season long.
On offense, Davis proved to be the best lob-finisher in the NBA; paired with a passer like LeBron, the results were astounding: 75.3% shooting within 0–3 feet, a 121 offensive rating, and a 5.8 offensive box plus/minus. He might be the best finisher James has ever played with, and with his defensive abilities (2.4 blocks per game, 3rd in the league, 101 defensive rating), Davis might be the best player that James has ever suited up with.
Beyond lob finishing, Davis is also a good, but not great post scorer who occasionally flashes guard-like ball-handling on the perimeter. His shooting was decent this season, and he improved to 33.5% on threes, but the fact that playmakers like LeBron boost his offensive value so much ultimately hurts his MVP candidacy.
3. James Harden
James Harden’s overall performance might have fallen slightly from last season’s historic offensive showcase, but he is still a top-3 MVP candidate based on his impact and offensive output.
On the surface, the numbers look great: 34.4 points, 7.4 assists, and 6.4 rebounds per game. And that’s before considering that Harden led the league in VORP, scoring, and win shares — for the second, third, and fourth year in a row, respectively.
Before he slowed down in the months of January-March, Harden appeared to have as strong of an MVP case as he did the year prior, when he averaged 36.1 points per game.
Through the first three months of the season, Harden averaged 37.87 points per game, with his sometimes inconsistent three-point shooting reaching an elite 42.5% in December.
Teams started to double team Harden outright. That’s right. NBA teams with the best athletes in the world reached a point where they would rather play 4-on-3 basketball than deal with trying to guard Harden in isolation.
Although he can be maddeningly inconsistent at times, and his teammate Russell Westbrook outplayed him over the final month of the season, it is undeniable that Harden, as the most prolific volume scorer of this generation, should be in the MVP race.
2. LeBron James
LeBron James was simply incredible this season. No player, at his age, with the amount of mileage on his body, has ever performed this well so late into a career.
James might still be a top-3 athlete in the league, even as he turned 35-years old in December and led up for his seventeenth season in the association. The result was a season average of 25.7 points, 7.9 rebounds, and a league-leading 10.6 assists per game.
Never has a player transitioned mid-career from being the top scorer in the league to being its top facilitator, yet that’s exactly what James did this season, all while being the league’s elder statesman.
Defensively, James, after being challenged by Anthony Davis, was incredibly locked-in and engaged on, with some flashes of his defensive acumen from Miami showing. While he didn’t guard the best players night in and night out, he was a vocal leader on defense who graded out as a far above-average defender yet again.
There is some evidence that LeBron is slowing down: he shot a career-high 6.4 threes per game, despite making only 34.9% of his tries; his field-goal percentage at the rim dropped nearly three percentage points. But overall, James proved this season that he is still the “King,” and until further notice, he is the best player in the league.
Ultimately, LeBron might have too many games for his statement weekend to gain enough traction for him to win the 2019–2020 MVP. There is evidence that he would’ve finished the season off with a flourish — he averaged 30.1 points per game on improved efficiency after the All-Star Break — but with only eight games in the NBA’s restart, the Playoffs are where “King James” will have to make his biggest statement yet.
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
Alas, here we are: Giannis Antetokounmpo will win his second straight MVP award. It might’ve been debatable whether he should’ve won his first MVP over Harden, but based on his and his team’s success, he will undoubtedly win the award this season.
In a relatively low 30.9 minutes per game, he averaged 29.6 points, 13.7 rebounds, 5.8 assists, a steal, and a block. He posted the fifth-highest PER ever, the ninth highest all-time BPM, and led the Bucks to one of the best defenses ever (more on that later).
He truly took the reins of the Bucks’ offense, nearly putting up one point for every minute he played, while being the most feared at-the-basket finisher since either LeBron James in Miami or Shaquille O’Neal in L.A. His shooting also rapidly improved over the course of the season (he shot 39.3% from three in December); his awful free-throw shooting notwithstanding.
On defense, though he is surrounded by excellent players like Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, Eric Bledsoe, and Donte DiVincenzo, he is the piece that makes the Bucks special. Though Middleton might have had a historic season of his own, he and the Bucks are wholly unremarkable without Giannis. With Giannis, the Bucks are nearly unbeatable.
Antetokounmpo began the season as the reigning MVP, and he only improved his performance in virtually every facet of the game this season, while playing fewer minutes than last season because his Bucks were the most dominant regular-season team since the 73–9 Golden State Warriors.
Honorable Mentions:
Luka Doncic got off to a hot start this season, and that was when his MVP candidacy was at its peak. For a sophomore player whose efficiency as a shooter still has a long way to go, Doncic is on the path to becoming a future MVP.
Nikola Jokic got off to a really, really slow start this season — averaging just 15.4 points per game through October/November. But the way Jokic finished the season, to average 20/10/7 while making the Nuggets an elite team makes him an MVP candidate.
Chris Paul had an amazing season for the OKC Thunder, turning a stained reputation from his last season in Houston on its head. His leadership, scoring prowess in clutch situations, and overall efficiency all-season long makes him a deserving All-NBA player, but not quite a true MVP contender.
Others: Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler, Damian Lillard, Kyle Lowry
Defensive Player of the Year
5. Bam Adebayo
Miami was just a middle-of-the-pack defense this season, but Bam Adebayo gets a nod for being the most versatile defender from the big man position in the NBA.
He is an elite rebounder at 10.5 per game, and he averaged 2.5 steals and blocks (or “stocks,” shout-out Brandon Anderson) combined. Though he isn’t an overwhelming physical presence in terms of height, he is a strong and extremely athletic leaper who protects the rim.
When considering Miami’s scheme, which often had Adebayo starting next to sub-par defenders like Meyers Leonard or Kelly Olynyk, it is clear that Adebayo had more defensive responsibility than the average starting center. In fact, Basketball Reference lists him as a power forward; the fact that he chased perimeter forwards on defense to begin games shows his versatility.
There were some factors to Miami’s defense that was outside of Adebayo’s control: until the trade deadline, him, Jimmy Butler, and Derrick Jones Jr. were the only players that qualified as true above-average defenders, and Miami’s defense was much better at home than on the road — a symptom of a team whose success is dependent on inexperienced pieces like Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, and Kendrick Nunn.
Other metrics back up his impact: he had a 106 DRTG, a 2.1 DBPM, and 3.6 defensive win shares. These numbers suggest that a great defender that played on a sub-par defensive team, which Miami was for most of the season.
Adebayo is a top candidate for Most Improved Player as well, and part of that improvement is his growth as a defensive force in Miami.
4. Brook Lopez
Once seen as a slow-footed, ground-bound, defensive liability, Brook Lopez has completely reinvented himself as a defensive force in Milwaukee. In Milwaukee’s unique defensive scheme, which prioritizes rim protection over perimeter defense, Lopez is a key piece.
He is a contender for being the best standstill rim protector in the NBA, with his length and size helping him block 2.4 shots per game, despite being fairly slow. And against post-up players with brute strength, Lopez is strong enough to hang with them and bother their shots.
He posted an elite defensive rating of 99, and a DBPM of 2.8, which made up for his poor shooting all-season long. He also posted 3.9 defensive win shares. Many metrics portray Lopez’s defense as being on par with some of the more popular names in the league, including Rudy Gobert and Joel Embiid.
Where Lopez’s value takes a hit is that there is so much in Milwaukee’s scheme that is out of his control: without athletic guards like Eric Bledsoe, Donte DiVincenzo, or Wes Matthews, Lopez would be torched by guards in the pick-and-roll; without Giannis Antetokounmpo, Lopez would struggle to be a rebounding defensive anchor, as his ground-bound nature limits his rebounding totals.
Still, Lopez has reinvented himself offensively and defensively over the past two seasons, and he is the second most valuable piece to Milwaukee’s historically great defense, only behind Antetokounmpo. He should make an All-Defense team for his efforts, along with Giannis and potentially Eric Bledsoe.
3. Ben Simmons
Though his offense came and went throughout the season, Ben Simmons was simply incredible on defense this season. He is easily the most versatile defender in the league, given that he guards shifty point guards on the perimeter as much as he guards bullish forwards in the post.
In fact, according to Nylon Calculus, Simmons guarded positions 1–4 for at least 17% of his defensive possessions; this variance in defensive assignments is almost unheard of. Much has been said about the versatility LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and other athletic freaks, but Simmons is right there with them.
Add in the fact that, outside of guarding larger forwards and centers, Simmons always matches up with the opposition’s top player, and soon it becomes clear just how valuable he truly is.
He has a knack for deflecting passes, with his ability to read passing lanes coming from his natural court vision; he averaged 2.1 steals per game. Smaller guards are bothered by his length as well, and Simmons’s size makes it difficult for shooters to get open looks.
The only issues holding back Simmons are two factors that play into each other: first, he can be a bit disinterested away from the ball, not guarding with the same intensity when the play isn’t in front of him. As will be made clear later, the two top defenders are elite on the ball but also fierce presences in help defense situations, which he is not.
The other issue is that Philly’s defense, along with Simmons at times, came and went from game-to-game. It’s hard to place all of this blame on Simmons, who, along with Josh Richardson, was the most consistently hard-working player on a nightly basis, but Philly’s inconsistencies somewhat hurt his DPOY case.
2. Anthony Davis
Anthony Davis set out to be the DPOY, and he was so, so, close to reaching his goal, leading most 2020 NBA Defensive Player of the Year predictions all season long. He lived up to his billing in Hollywood, and he did so by turning a mediocre Lakers defense into a great one this season.
He is arguably the best rim protector in the NBA, with his freakish length and leaping ability helping him average 2.4 blocks per game. He single-handedly was the piece that made up for his teammates’ mistakes, whether it be at the rim or on the perimeter.
His mobility as a defender made him able to guard any front-court position, including ball-handling scorers like Kawhi Leonard or Paul George. Meanwhile, when he switched onto smaller guards, he could either smother their shots on the perimeter or erase their layups at the basket.
He is an analytics darling who a DRTG of 101, the best of his career, a 2.8 DBPM, 4.1 defensive win shares, and a VORP of 5.0. L.A.’s defensive scheme wasn’t as extreme as the league-leading Bucks, but Davis almost surpassed Giannis Antetokounmpo in terms of their impact as help defenders.
While L.A. had many good defensive guards and a pair of elite shot-blocking centers in JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard, it was Davis who patched all of the holes in their defense all season long, while also leading the team in points, rebounds, steals, and blocks.
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo
Alas, here we are: Giannis Antetokounmpo winning both the MVP and DPOY in the same season.
The Bucks were the best defense in the league for a variety of reasons, but Giannis’ unique defensive talents were the primary reason.
He may not be the best perimeter defender on this list — that would be Ben Simmons — and he may not even be the best rim protector on this list — that would be split between Davis, Lopez, or Rudy Gobert — but his overall impact is too great to be denied.
Consider this: Mike Budenholzer designed a scheme that willingly gives up open threes, mid-range pull-ups, and all non-paint shots. The only reason the Bucks don’t get torched by elite shooters and talented guards is Antetokounmpo, who covers so much ground on the court that he can effectively zone half of the court by himself.
Because of this impact, Antetokounmpo is easily the best help defender we’ve seen since Draymond Green in 2015–2016 and, going back further, LeBron James in 2012–2013 on the Miami Heat. He is perhaps the greatest help defender ever, as his length and athleticism make even the most talented players look futile.
The advanced metrics are almost silly: a 96 DRTG per 100 possessions, 4.8 defensive wins shares, a 4.1 DBPM, VORP of 6.0, and a defensive rebounding percentage of 34.5% (remember how Lopez struggled to grab rebounds? Well, Antetokounmpo collects all of those missed rebounds himself).
It takes a great player having a great season to win DPOY, and Ben Simmons’ stout perimeter defense, Anthony Davis’ incredible defensive stats, and even Brook Lopez’s rim-protecting impact were all worthy of winning the DPOY, but Giannis Antetokounmpo was historically great this season and that’s why he is our choice for the award
Honorable Mentions:
Rudy Gobert was not as impactful as he had been in previous seasons; some of this is due to the way teams diversify their approaches to attack the Jazz defense every season. The Jazz were not an elite defense this season, and Gobert will be penalized for it.
Marcus Smart was an elite defender yet again this season. The Celtics’ stingy defense this season, however, can be attributed to Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown growing into elite defenders in their own right.
Joel Embiid was quietly an elite defensive player this season, but his combination of missed games and Philly’s disappointing season prevent him from joining Simmons in the DPOY conversation.
Kawhi Leonard was awesome on defense this season, and he stood out on a team with multiple renowned perimeter defenders, but load management comes at a cost, you know?
Hassan Whiteside’s block totals are a collection of empty stats that hide his blasé attitude toward actual defense.
Rookie of the Year
5. P.J. Washington
P.J. Washington is far from the flashiest name on this list, but he was a quietly effective role player for the Charlotte Hornets — who were far better than their brutal preseason projections. A decent amount of their success can be attributed to Washington, who after being picked near the end of the lottery, outperformed at least five players selected before him (Darius Garland, Cameron Johnson, Jarrett Culver, Jaxson Hayes, and Cam Reddish).
Washington offers a little bit of everything. He is an above-average shooter (37.4% on 4 attempts per game), but he is also a good athlete with decent ball-handling. While he may be wholly unremarkable, he is a serviceable, slightly-above-average player, and for the 12th pick in the draft, that’s good value.
There are times when he can heat up, showing his larger potential, like when he hit 7 threes and scored 27 points against the Bulls, but those nights were rare in a mostly consistent season.
He is a switchable defender, with good mobility and agility; this mobility helps be an average perimeter defense as a “modern” forward, though this makes him an average rebounder for his position (just 5.4 per game).
It will be interesting if Charlotte develops Washington into more than just a role player (could he be a Draymond Green-like piece?), but for now, he is just the fifth-best rookie and probably the most unheralded quality rookie in the league at that.
4. Kendrick Nunn
At one point, early in the season, Kendrick Nunn felt like the hottest name in the NBA. For a rookie, he was great; for an undrafted player with a troubled past that led to a long path to NBA basketball, he was incredible.
Nunn averaged 22.3 points on elite efficiency in his first week of NBA action, winning Rookie of the Week. In his first five games, he scored 112 points. The last player to top that total? Kevin Durant in 2007, who scored 113 points.
After he cooled down, Nunn’s averages and advanced metrics paint a less-pretty picture of a good scorer who is below average at the other facets of the game. But, taking into account Miami’s struggles away from home, Nunn’s numbers look far more palatable ( +4 differential at home; -19 on the road).
Overall, he was a surprise starter over the oft-injured Goran Dragic who quickly went from a pleasant surprise to a highly regarded starter on a team heading into the playoffs with home-court advantage and a winning record.
3. Zion Williamson
It seemed impossible that Zion Williamson would live up to the hype that he created from his one season in Duke. It seemed even more impossible that Zion would live up to his hype after he tore his meniscus before the season.
But 19 games into his rookie season, Williamson somehow lived up to his billing. He averaged 23.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 2.2 assists while being unstoppable at the basket (67.4%) and even making 46.2% of 0.7 three-point attempts per game.
The Pelicans were elite with him on the floor, outscoring opponents by 10.2 points per 100 possessions, and every player benefited from his presence on the floor as a scorer, rebounder, screen setter, and occasional facilitator — except for Brandon Ingram.
Zion also put up 28 points and 8 rebounds per 36 minutes; his stats and scoring totals were comparable to Wilt Chamberlain, Shaquille O’Neal, Joel Embiid, and Allen Iverson — not bad company.
Perhaps even more impressive than Williamson’s statistical value was the way he seemingly rose to the occasion against the top players in the league. Whether it be 24 points in a 28-point win against Ja Morant, 35 points against the Lakers, or 22 points and 17 fourth-quarter points in a memorable NBA debut, Williamson rose to the occasion all season long.
Like LeBron James, Williamson’s case for NBA hardware was hampered by the NBA being put on hiatus. Without another 20 games to try and help the Pelicans overtake Ja Morant’s Grizzlies in the standings, Zion lost his best chance at passing up his former AAU teammate in the 2020 NBA Rookie of the Year Ladder.
2. Brandon Clarke
If only metrics and advanced stats were taken into consideration, Brandon Clarke might be at the top of the 2020 NBA Rookie of the Year Ladder. His modest averages (12/5.8/1.4) hide a statistical monster for a current playoff team.
Consider how efficient he was. Even by basic statistical measures, a shooting line of 62.3/40.4/78.5 is almost unparalleled around the NBA — especially for a rookie — with a 64.8 TS% to boot.
Though he isn’t necessarily a modern five or stretch-four, Clarke found a balance between having a traditional five’s athletic prowess and a modern four’s skill and grace. He shot a scintillating 74.3 percent as a roll man in screening actions, which was in the 94th percentile around the NBA, according to Synergy Sports.
Against rim protectors, Clarke has a signature floating, tear-drop like shot that confuses defenses and leaves them with a predicament: guard Clarke closely and his speed might burn you, but drop back into the paint, and he will unleash a variety of short hook shots, runners, and floaters.
Defense was Clarke’s primary asset coming out of college, and that continued this season, where he posted a positive DBPM and an impressive 3.5 BPM overall. He was also a decent rebounder in limited minutes — an added boost to his overall value as a two-way player.
Going back to an earlier point, Clarke was the rookie leader in VORP, Box Plus/Minus, and Win Shares, and he was only behind Zion in PER and Player Impact Plus/Minus. Though these numbers don’t take into account a variety of non-quantifiable factors, it’s clear that Clarke is one of the top three rookies in the NBA just based on his impact alone.
1. Ja Morant
Who else could it be? Ja Morant stole the spotlight from Williamson with his incredible performances early into his professional career, and he rode his success all-season long to make the Grizzlies a playoff team heading into Orlando.
While most rookie point guards are either awful or putting up empty stats on a terrible team, Morant was neither as he fearlessly led Memphis to the eighth seed in a freakishly competitive Western Conference. By his third game — out dueling Kyrie Irving in an overtime battle — all NBA fans should have realized that Ja Morant is special.
He was a nightly highlight reel, at times making grown men look like bowling balls (sorry, Kevin Love); this fearless attacking helped Morant have both a good free-throw rate (4.5 attempts per game) and a 60% conversion rate around the rim.
Just by raw numbers alone (17.6/3.5/6.9), Morant looks like one of the best young point guards in the league, and unlike Trae Young or De’Aaron Fox, he has proven to be a winning player.
It would be a shame if injuries stopped Morant from fulfilling his full potential, and it would be a travesty if the Grizzlies can’t keep the trio of Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Clarke together for the next decade.
Because of his historic season that was a living highlight reel, Ja Morant is at the top of our 2020 NBA Rookie of the Year Ladder.
Honorable Mentions
R.J. Barrett was as inconsistent as expected. His flashes of brilliance can’t be ignored, but neither can be his deficiencies.
Tyler Herro was a sniper off the bench all season long for the Heat. His confidence as an extremely young and inexperienced player was exciting.
Michael Porter Jr. couldn’t get consistent minutes all-season long with the contending Denver Nuggets, but when he was given true starter’s minutes, he produced at an above-average rate and showed flashes of his potential.
Matisse Thybulle was elite on defense, and he isn’t far from being an All-Defense member. His three-point shooting came and went, but his overall impact was terrific.
Terrence Davis was an efficient scoring guard who scores at all three levels and was only limited by the variety of backcourt options in Toronto. He looks like yet another draft steal for Masai Ujiri.
Most Improved Player
5. Devonte’ Graham
If we went simply off of the largest scoring increase, Devonte’ Graham would win the Most Improved Player award. After being a complete non-factor in his rookie season, he became the Hornets’ best offensive player by virtue of his across-the-board improvement.
In particular, he was lethal as a shooter in pick-and-roll situations, as almost half of his 218 three-point makes were a result of him creating his shot off-the-dribble. His shooting was far and away his primary draw; it opened up the rest of his game by being such an immense threat. His pick-and-roll play, to be specific, was aided so greatly by the threat of his shooting that Graham registered more points-per-play on those actions than Jimmy Butler, Ja Morant, and D’Angelo Russell, according to The Ringer.
Early in the season, as Graham nailed almost 42% of his threes in the first months of the season, it was almost unanimous that he would win the Most Improved Player award.
Unfortunately, he came back down to Earth, and he still has a work to do: in particular, his finishing at the rim leaves much to be desired — and his diminutive size does little to help in that regard.
While Graham had a “Zero to Hero” moment early in the season, it wasn’t enough for us to put him at the top spot of the MIP rankings.
4. Luka Doncic
In terms of all-around statistical jumps, no player’s overall stat-line increased as much as Luka Doncic, the rookie phenom turned NBA superstar. Doncic was a good player as a rookie, somebody who had superstar potential, but he was great this season.
As the Mavericks’ official point guard, Doncic put up numbers that are only mirrored by players like LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, and Oscar Robertson. He is a one-man offense, combining elite volume scoring and playmaking to be one of the best players in basketball.
Much has been said about Doncic — including his skill level, his early MVP bid, and his future with Kristaps Porzingis, and a natural conversation point was whether or not he could win the MIP this season.
On the surface, the answer is yes: his numbers improved in more categories than any other candidate, and he had by far the toughest role within his team.
But, funnily enough, there’s another level of play that Doncic can reach. For somebody whose jumpsuit and step-back mirrors James Harden, Doncic is not quite the shooter that one would expect. There is no denying that Luka appears to be a natural shooter and scorer, yet his percentages don’t reflect that.
If (when?) Doncic’s percentages rise across the board, he will challenge Harden as the best offensive player in the league, and he will probably get his first MVP. For now, however, his lack of improvement in that one category alone limits his MIP case, as his numbers are more of a byproduct of increased volume rather than increased efficiency.
3. Jayson Tatum
It says everything about this season’s crop of talent that Jayson Tatum, who leaped from being a rising young talent to a bonafide star player, will not be at the top of our list of 2020 Most Improved Player predictions.
First, it seems fitting to describe what went wrong for Tatum in his second season, after the entire league seemed sure of his superstardom after a strong rookie campaign.
It was in 2018–2019 where Tatum’s fans turned into critics, as he struggled while being split between being the C’s #2 option and a tertiary role player on an ultra-talented team. He also had a bad habit of shooting far too many mid-range shots, which only stalled Boston’s offense and made his percentages from the field less efficient.
At the beginning of this season, there were signs that Tatum was beginning to change; most notably, he took far more three-pointers and attacked the rim for floaters and runners — but the superstar that many fans hoped Tatum would become still didn’t show up.
That all changed in February, where Tatum averaged 30.7 points. After coming along slowly, his development burst onto the scene. He was a much stronger finisher around the rim, he was a more confident ball-handler, and he was genuinely an unstoppable force throughout the entire month.
Defensively, Tatum was excellent all-season long, putting forth great effort, using his length and athleticism to bother perimeter players, and taking the challenge of guarding some of the tougher wing players in the NBA.
The recent nature and high-profile nature of Tatum’s improvement may sway voters in the award selection process, but in terms of pure improvement, Tatum is third on our list.
2. Brandon Ingram
It took a long time (four years to be exact), but Brandon Ingram is finally living up to the lofty expectations set for him coming out of Duke. At one point, it seemed that Ingram would be better off as a pseudo-guard with the ball in his hands because he was a poor shooter, a suspect finisher, and a passive scorer.
Now, he appears to be a player who, along with Zion Williamson, can be one of the two leading scorers on a championship team and a perennial All-Star.
His biggest improvement had to be his three-point shooting. Once a passive shooter who avoided three-point shots in favor of less efficient mid-range shots, Ingram became a genuine sniper from outside in just one offseason, finishing at 38.7% on the season, which was skewed by a shooting slump to end the year.
He also improved his free-throw shooting and finishing at the rim, which made him much more effective when he decided to drive towards the basket. And his mid-range shooting stayed efficient, at 43.7% from 10–16 feet and 39.4% from 16 feet — 3-point territory.
It looked like Ingram’s career was in shambles after he was diagnosed with a blood clotting issue and was traded to the Pelicans, but after a resurgent season, he is now a first-time All-Star and second on our MIP ballot.
1. Bam Adebayo
Last season, Bam Adebayo was a role player whose minutes were limited behind Hassan Whiteside. This season, he has improved far beyond any fan’s wildest imagination, and he is an All-Star, a Skills Champion, and the second-best player on one of the league’s most surprising teams.
The best part about Adebayo’s game is how untraditional it is. What other center is a playmaker, a rim protector, a perimeter defender, and a post-up scorer? He is one of the best defenders in the league, but he has the ball-handling and passing of a playmaking forward.
We chose him on our DPOY ballot over Rudy Gobert because he was easily the most impactful defender on his team, as a player who protected the rim and chased quicker perimeter forwards all-season long. He also showed exponential growth as a scorer, with a Montrezl Harrell-like ability to isolate on his defender and score in the paint.
Without Adebayo’s sudden leap, Miami might have been stuck — though Jimmy Butler was terrific this season, his inefficiencies as a three-point shooter might’ve hampered his offensive value had he not had a terrific screen setter and finisher in Adebayo.
Miami enters the Playoffs as a sleeper pick to make it past the second round, but if they potentially make the Conference Finals, it will be in large part due to Adebayo, our top choice in our 2020 Most Improved Player Predictions.
Honorable Mentions:
Christian Wood emerged near the end of the season from an obscure role player to one of the most valued free agents this summer. But, his success mostly came after the trade deadline, which hurts his case for the MIP award.
Duncan Robinson nearly made the list as a historically great three-point shooter who came out of nowhere. But, Robinson came into the league as purely a three-point shooter, and he remained as a three-point shooter (though a great one, at that).
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was the second-best player on the surprising OKC Thunder. Some of his improvement purely came from increased opportunity, however, which made him a strong candidate, but not a finalist for the MIP.
Lonzo Ball took off in the last few months of the season, particularly with his much-improved jump-shot. However, he really struggled at the beginning of the season, unlike his teammate Brandon Ingram.
Jaylen Brown improved greatly from his 2018–2019 campaign, but he didn’t necessarily add as much to his game as his teammate, Jayson Tatum.
Sixth Man of the Year — Jaden Pelayo
5. Derrick Rose
In all honesty, this fifth spot could have been taken by other intriguing candidates for the Sixth Man of the Year award. But, in the end, the former MVP took the spot, opening this list as a top-five nominee. Derrick Rose has had a notable season for the Detroit Pistons, producing on the floor as an offensive-minded guard.
At times, Derrick Rose was the best player for the Detroit Pistons despite coming off the bench. He has averaged 18.1 PPG, 2.4 RPG, and 5.6 APG on 55.5 TS% while playing 26.0 MPG.
Perhaps Derrick Rose’s stats are a tad bit inflated due to playing on an abysmal Detroit Pistons squad. Nonetheless, he’s been one of the bright spots on a struggling team. His 18 PPG ranks fourth among all bench players, establishing himself as a volume scorer. He records the highest FGA per game for the Pistons, and his efficiency is up-and-down.
On the bright side, Rose’s TS% is above league average (league average is 56.3%), his 87.1% efficiency from the free-throw line ranks 19th among the NBA. On the other hand, his three-point percentage is subpar as he shoots 30.6% from the three-point line (on 2.9 attempts per game). Rose’s defensive abilities are best described as non-existent and he’s not exactly a proficient playmaker.
Rose is a rim-attacking guard who can bring instant offense the second he hits the court. Regardless of whether his stats are skewed, Rose is still a reliable offensive option who’s been the best player on the team once Andre Drummond was traded away. Unfortunately, his 2019–2020 campaign is not enough to catapult him into first place.
4. Lou Williams
At this point, the Sixth Man of the Year award could be re-named to the Lou Williams award and I wouldn’t be mad about it. For the past few seasons, Williams has been an elite bench weapon whose job is to score buckets and nothing more.
He has continued this impressive run in the 2019–2020 NBA season, averaging 18.1 PPG, 3.1 RPG and 5.7 APG on 54.6 TS%. Williams has been playing 29.3 minutes every night, the second-most on the Los Angeles Clippers behind Kawhi Leonard.
At 33 years old, Lou Williams had a familiar season as a volume scorer as he had been in the past, one who can heat up in a second’s notice. On a positive note, he’s been a tad more efficient on three-point attempts (36.3%) on larger quantities (4.9 3PA compared to 3.9 3PA from last season). Williams’ assists numbers are a smidge better than last season, averaging his highest APG in his respected career (5.7 APG compared to 5.4 APG from last season).
Aside from this, however, Sweet Lou has been underwhelming this season. He’s been inefficient from the field, ranking below average in terms of TS% (league average is 56.3%). He has always been a defensive liability, and this has not changed this season, struggling mightily to keep up with players as a scrawny, 6’1” guard.
Lou Williams has been fantastic off the bench. He’s been key in contributing while Paul George struggled to find his groove. Put him on any other contender and he’ll be able to produce without skipping a heartbeat. Despite this, this season’s 6MOY race has been a tight affair, and Williams 2019–2020 season isn’t on par to his previous award-winning years. And he has been so bad on defense that other teams target him repeatedly on that end. Therefore, Lou Williams ranks #4 on this list.
3. George Hill
George Hill hasn’t garnered booming attention as a 6th Man of the Year candidate. His stats on paper aren’t intriguing by the slightest (low points per game number) and he doesn’t have a narrative that pushes him to make some noise as the 6MOTY. Despite this, he properly deserves this spot for his unmatched impact as a bench player for the Milwaukee Bucks.
The 33-year-old veteran has averaged 9.6 PPG, 2.9 APG, and 3.0 RPG on 66.8 TS%. Compared to other 6MOTY candidates, Hill has considerably appeared less on the court as he has played 1103 minutes this season (Lou Williams has played 1757 minutes and Derrick Rose has played 1298 minutes).
His base stats may not impress the average fan, but it’s the efficiency that gets avid NBA fans to gush over his productivity off the bench. On the perimeter, Hill averages 48.0% from three (on 2.9 attempts) and 83.1% from the free-throw line (1.6 attempts).
Considering that he only plays 21.2 minutes per game, Hill has been a fantastic 6th man for the Bucks. Ramp his minutes up by eight or nine minutes and his base stats will be more impressive, catching more casual eyes.
He’s not a prolific scorer such as Lou Williams or Derrick Rose, but his impact is unmatched. George Hill is an amazing shooter for a team that needs space around their franchise cornerstone, and he’s been a positive defender, unlike his competitors. If you were building a contender from today’s game, Hill would be one of your choices to come off the bench.
Traditionally, the Sixth Man of the Year award is awarded to those with the highest points per game figure. Now, it’s time to not focus all of our attention on the heralded points per game averages. After all, basketball is a team game, and George Hill is the perfect team player who’s been a valuable bench asset for the Milwaukee Bucks.
2. Dennis Schröder
On paper, Dennis Schröder fits the bill as the stereotypical 6th Man of the Year award winner. He’s a score-first guard who can create some instant offense off the bench. In his second year in Oklahoma City, Schröder has improved his on-court performances by a noticeable margin and has been an important player for the overachieving Oklahoma City Thunder.
In his (arguably) best season yet, Dennis Schröder has recorded 19.0 PPG, 3.7 RPG and 4.1 APG on 57.3 TS%. He’s played 31.0 MPG, the third most behind Chris Paul and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Speaking of Paul and Gilgeous-Alexander, Schröder has found the most success alongside these two other guards, producing 19.4 points when they all share the court. With them off the court, Dennis Schröder struggles mightily, but the Thunder’s thin bench may have a hand in this.
Similarly to Lou Williams, Dennis Schröder isn’t a very reliable defender. He’s a 6’1” point guard who can’t hold his own on the defensive end. But this is not his primary task, and he’s a better defender than Williams. Schröder’s job is to score buckets off the bench against other bench units.
Schröder is an efficient player for someone who fits the mold of a volume shooter, averaging 38.1% from three (on 5.1 attempts) and 83.9% from the free-throw line (on 3.7 attempts). He has averaged the highest PPG for all bench players, paired with impressive efficiency. Additionally, he is a good playmaker with respectable vision. He’s essentially been a better version of Lou Williams this season, hence why he is ranked higher than the Clippers veteran guard.
Overall, Schröder has been a consensus top-two pick for the 6th Man of the Year Award. He’s been a valuable scorer for the Oklahoma City Thunder, a team that has struggled with depth issues. The narrative is on his side, which is excellent for him as narratives have single-handedly swayed award ceremonies. Despite his amazing 2019–2020 season, Dennis Schröder is not the best 6th man in the league because this trophy goes to…
1. Montrezl Harrell
The streak is broken, a big man has finally won the 6th Man of the Year award! For the third straight year, a Los Angeles Clipper has earned himself the 6MOTY trophy. This time, it comes in the hands of the big man, Montrezl Harrell. For the past couple of seasons, he’s been a valuable bench piece for the Clippers, but his comrade Lou Williams always overshadowed him. Well, not this year.
Harrell has been a phenomenal 6th Man for the contending Clippers this season, averaging 18.6 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 1.1 BPG on 60.7 TS%. He’s played fewer minutes than his bench buddy in Lou Williams, yet he’s been the better player this season.
In the past, Harrell had been looked down upon as a negative defensive player, but this season, he’s steadily improved his defensive abilities in the paint.
On the offensive of the game, Montrezl Harrell is similar to Lou Williams in the sense of providing instant energy on the court. He is a player who gets down and dirty, chipping away at his opponents. He’s a rim-running big man who gets his points inside the paint and grabs boards with ease despite being an undersized center at 6’7”.
Overall, Montrezl Harrell deserves this award over his competitors for his total effect on both sides of the floor. Harrell’s been a consistent figure for the Los Angeles Clippers, as his game has steadily improved each season. He’s got the narrative to win it all, as a valuable bench piece for one of the title favorites. With all of this, Montrezl Harrell is our pick for the 2020 6th Man of the Year award.
Honourable Mentions:
Davis Bertans — 15.4 PPG, 4.5 RPG and 1.7 APG on 62.8 TS% and 42.4 3P%
Bertans was a revelation for the Wizards, and he helped them have a surprisingly elite offense at times this season.
Christian Wood — 13.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG and 1.0 APG on 65.9 TS% and 38.6 3P%
Wood, as mentioned earlier, was excellent when given minutes on the Pistons.
Maxi Kleber — 9.2 PPG, 5.4 RPG and 1.2 APG on 60.3 TS% and 37.4 3P%
Kleber is one Dallas’ best players, and though he doesn’t get much recognition, he is a good shooter, smart defender, and above-average athlete coming off of the bench.
Coach of the Year — Jaden Pelayo
5. Brad Stevens
Much of the Boston Celtics’ recent success can be accredited to head coach Brad Stevens. The Celtics are about to appear in their sixth straight postseason as the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference, boasting a 43–21 record.
Advanced stats paint the Celtics as one of the elite teams in the association, ranking fifth in offensive rating (112.3), fourth in defensive rating (106.2) and fifth in net rating (6.1). These astonishing statistics can be attributed to Brad Stevens. He’s been a revered figure around the NBA because of his defensive expertise. The one flaw to his coaching tactics is Stevens’ offensive knowledge, but that can be something that can be improved.
The emergence of stars such as Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart has had a hand in the success of the Boston Celtics. But don’t discredit Brad Stevens. Without him the team would not be in the same position they are in, they would be inferior without Stevens compared to with him at the helm.
Despite this, Brad Stevens doesn’t have the narrative to slingshot him into the top three of this race. He has lost the likes of Kyrie Irving and Al Horford but the performances of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kemba Walker, and others have canceled out these holes. What he has done with his Celtics squad is impressive, but everyone touted Boston as a serious championship contender. Thus he is positioned at #5 on our list.
4. Frank Vogel
After a disappointing stint with the Orlando Magic, Frank Vogel was let go by the organization. Vogel sat on the couches of unemployment until someone rang his phone and offered him a coaching position. The Los Angeles Lakers were building a fierce title contender after trading for superstar Anthony Davis and needed one last block for the foundation of the team. They called Frank Vogel and presented a head coaching job for the former NBA coach. Thus began Vogel’s time as the head coach of the Lakers.
In his first season with the franchise, the Los Angeles Lakers have been one of the few title favorites, possessing the first seed in the Western Conference with a 49–14 record. The Lakers are among the best in advanced stats as they are fourth in offensive rating (112.6), third in defensive rating (105.5), and second in net rating (7.1).
Vogel’s key calling card is his defensive schemes, backed up by the Lakers’ impressive defensive rating. Having the luxury of having LeBron James and Anthony Davis on your team will send you to the upper echelons of the NBA. But this doesn’t mean that Frank Vogel has been nothing but a yes man. It’s quite the opposite, holding players accountable to their mistakes and maximizing their talents.
Looking at the Los Angeles Lakers season record from the 2018–2019 season to this ongoing year, the Lakers have astronomically improved. They attained a 37–45 record last season, and they have already surpassed this victory tally by a considerable margin. The addition of Vogel has also been a factor in this improvement as a coach for a contending team such as the Lakers can make or break their title hopes. He’s got the narrative to win it all, but in our books, it’s just not enough.
3. Mike Budenholzer
Nobody in NBA history has ever repeated as back-to-back Coach of the Year winners. Could Mike Budenholzer be the first to break this unbeatable record? Nope. Sorry, Mr. Budenholzer.
The Milwaukee Bucks are arguably the best team in the NBA, thanks to coach Mike Budenholzer. The Bucks are atop of the association in terms of record as they boast a 53–12 record, ahead by four wins compared to second place. Diving into the advanced stats truly shows how scary this team is — sixth in offensive rating (112.3), first in defensive rating (101.6), and first in net rating (10.7). They possess an all-time great defense, ranking as fifth-best in the highest margin of victory in NBA history.
Mike Budenholzer is only at #3 mainly because he is the reigning champion of this award and no matter who you are, Gandhi, Jesus, or whatever your name is, you are not winning the Coach of the Year award in two consecutive seasons. But hey, give credit where credit is due, Mike Budenholzer is one of the best head coaches in the NBA.
2. Erik Spoelstra
Who would have thought the Miami Heat would be the fourth-best team in the Eastern Conference in terms of record? Aside from devoted Heat fans, nobody could have foreseen the Miami Heat finishing in the top five of the Eastern Conference. With the addition of Jimmy Butler in the offseason and seasoned veterans (Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala) during the season, Erik Spoelstra has had a hand in molding this unconventional team into serious title contenders.
As mentioned before, the Miami Heat stand fourth in the Eastern Conference with a 41–24 record. In terms of advanced stats, the Heat back up their elite status as they rank seventh in offensive rating (112.2), fourteenth in defensive rating(109.2), and tenth in net rating (3.0).
Erik Spoelstra has combined a ragtag group of players and has turned them into one of the best teams in the NBA. He’s made some unpopular coaching decisions (e.g., benching veteran Goran Dragic to make way for rookie Kendrick Nunn on the starting lineup), stuck by them, and proved everyone wrong as his selection paid dividends. Spoelstra’s one of the best head coaches in the league and he deserves a top-two spot in the COTY race, but he just comes short of the elusive award.
1. Nick Nurse
As a devoted Toronto Raptors fan, I could blabber on and on about Nick Nurse’s excellency for hours on end. To save you some time, I won’t but I will sing the highest of praises about the reigning champion.
Once Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green elected to live in the bright lights of Los Angeles, everybody and their mothers counted out the Toronto Raptors.
But, Nick Nurse had other plans.
Heading into the NBA restart, the Toronto Raptors possess the second seed in the Eastern Conference with a 46–18 record. Looking at the stat sheet, you’ll understand why the Raptors boast the third-best record in the NBA — 12th in offensive rating (111.3), 2nd in defensive rating (104.9), and 4th in net rating (6.4).
Nick Nurse has maintained an elite defense while fighting through heaps of injuries. Kyle Lowry, Marc Gasol, Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, and Serge Ibaka have missed a combined 76 games. Despite this lack of continuity, the Raptors have overcome this issue, which makes their 2019–2020 even more impressive.
Masai Ujiri, Bobby Webster, and the rest of the front office have dug deep for diamonds in the rough and Nick Nurse has transformed them into valuable rotation pieces. The Toronto Raptors boast one of the best bench units in the NBA with those such as Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Chris Boucher, Matt Thomas, and Terence Davis coming off the bench.
And who could forget about Nick Nurse’s unconventional coaching tactics? Remember, this is the same guy who ran a high school play against the greatest shooter of all-time in the NBA Finals. The crazy thing is, it worked! This season Nurse has employed full-court presses, man-to-man defense, zone defense, and his trusty box-and-one against contending teams.
The Toronto Raptors have exceeded expectations and then some thanks to Nick Nurse. His janky tactics and lovable personality has made him a prized possession in Toronto. The Coach of the Year award should undoubtedly go to one man by the name of Nick Nurse.
Honorable Mentions:
Taylor Jenkins (Memphis Grizzlies): 32–33
Nobody thought the Grizzlies would be in the Playoff hunt, but Jenkins has masterfully guided them this season.
Billy Donovan (Oklahoma City Thunder): 40–24
Donovan’s reputation was poor after two underwhelming seasons with Russell Westbrook and Paul George, but this season, he repaired his reputation and proved to be a great coach.
Doc Rivers (Los Angeles Clippers): 44–20
Rivers is an elite coach, but his team wasn’t dominant enough for him to seriously enter the COY competition. His impact should be felt in the Playoffs, however.
And at last, we are finally finished. Here’s to great 2020 Playoffs in Orlando, Florida. Below are our picks, summarized:
MVP: Giannis Antetokounmpo
DPOY: Giannis Antetokounmpo
ROY: Ja Morant
6MOY: Montrezl Harrell
COY: Nick Nurse
