Rebuild or Reload? Assessing Some of the NBA’s Mediocre Squads
Analyzing the teams in the “No Man’s Land” of the NBA
No man’s land. You aren’t good enough to contend but you aren’t bad enough to gain access to a top 10 draft pick. It’s the worst position to be in as a team, yet there are routinely squads in every league that sit in this place of terror for years.
After so many seasons and following off-season’s of mediocrity, a decision arises: Should we blow it up or try to make 1 or 2 moves to save the team? It’s an emotional decision in a league that’s all business, as in most cases it requires GM’s who built the squad to tear it apart after years of hard work. I’ll be going over a few squads that need to make that hard call and a team that needs to go all-in right now.
Orlando Magic
Verdict: Rebuild
When Markelle Fultz drove to the right, lost his balance on a spin move to the left, miraculously regained his footing and delivered a perfect pass to Nikola Vucevic for an easy two, the Orlando Magic put the finishing touches on a shocking Game 1 upset against the Milwaukee Bucks.
Yet, in the next four contests they played… well, how they were expected to play. The Bucks would take the next four convincingly, and the series became a microcosm of the Magic’s last decade: once in a blue moon they show you something, only to revert to mediocrity for most of their games.
This is a team that had won 50 games 4 years in a row before trading away star center Dwight Howard back in 2012. Through the trade, they had gained access to solid role players like Arron Afflalo and Nikola Vucevic (who took time to truly develop); not to mention a ridiculous 5 new draft picks to retool their team — a roster that had been to the Finals just a few years prior. Considering the haul they got for back-to-back-to-back DPOY Dwight Howard, it would be understandable if they were terrible for a few seasons. The point was that they’d eventually make something of those assets and get back to winning.
Instead, they sat at the bottom of the Eastern Conference for the better part of a decade before finally making it to the playoffs in their last 2 seasons. Each postseason run ended as quickly as they began, getting eliminated in the first round both years, but at least this elevated the Magic from utter garbage to mediocrity.
But, this is a place the Magic cannot stay. It does no good for players in their prime like Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier to be going nowhere fast on a roster that simply isn’t good enough to make noise in the postseason. It certainly does the Magic no good to have assets like them not contributing to the team’s long-term goals, so the simple answer here is to make trades. Orlando is not a huge sports market and even if it was, the roster they have would simply not go to the Finals with the addition of single superstar talent. They need to blow the operation up.
Will it be messy? Oh man, you bet it will. This isn’t the Big Three Celtics’ rebuild where they had legends to use as trade chips. GM John Hammond and the Magic will need to instead parlay guys like Fournier and Gordon into draft capital and will need to accept the fact they will be a bottom tier team for years to come. But at least it beats being a consistent 8th or 9th seed in a small market heading towards decades of 15th seed finishes.
So if we have established Gordon and Fournier should be moved soon (with Jonathan Isaac out for the season, they may not feel as confident about moving Gordon), what should happen with the rest of the roster?
Former #1 overall pick Markelle Fultz and the former #6 pick in Isaac figure to be the glue guys for this rebuild. Fultz has been a prove-it story since his time with the 76ers went… not so well. This should lead to a cheaper price tag in future contract discussions and Fultz will likely be a solid option at point guard after starting 60 games for Orlando in 2019–20. Jonathan Isaac on the other hand will likely miss the 2020–21 campaign with injury, so he will be in a prove-it situation farther down the line in 2021–22.
Although they both have lots to prove in terms of showing they can stay healthy and grow as shooters, the Magic have some solid young talent to last them through what will be a tough few years.
Portland Trail Blazers
Verdict: Reload
The Blazers have something not many middle-of-the-pack squads can claim: a generational talent. Damian Lillard is in the discussion for the best point guard in the league and showed it in a gutsy series of performances that willed Portland to a playoff spot in the bubble.
As good as he and the Blazers were in huge moments last year, however, they are still a 35–39 team that showed they have a lot more roster building to do before we can consider them a contender the likes of which could compete with Golden State or the Lakers.
What did Portland do badly last season you might ask? Well, they ranked bottom five in points allowed and have only a few real defensive pieces currently on the roster; those two being the inconsistent Hassan Whiteside and a great 3 and D option in Trevor Ariza, who they were missing in the bubble.
It is yet to be seen whether the Blazers will re-sign Carmelo Anthony, a solid offensive contributor at 15 points per night, or defer to get help defensively. One option for a subtle Blazers reload would be to let Melo walk and instead opt to trade for Rockets forward Robert Covington. With Daryl Morey and Mike D’Antoni walking away from the Rockets recently, there seems to be a possibility that Houston starts reshaping its roster away from the small ball look they became synonymous with. A possible trade could see the Blazers trade Hassan Whiteside for Covington, who would be an instant upgrade on defense over Carmelo Anthony.
It should be noted that Anthony said in January that he would like to finish his career in Portland, so if they get Covington and wish to honor his choice, he could resign for the veteran’s minimum as a key bench piece.
Covington would also add to what this team does well with Anthony already: spacing the floor. With a starting lineup of 4 great shooters last year, the Blazers finished 3rd in 3-point percentage. Their starters weren’t the only snipers on the roster though, as they had consistent shooting from guys like Gary Trent, Rodney Hood, and promising big man Zach Collins at times.
This team excels in youth and shooting and next year they will need development out of young guys like Collins and Anfernee Simons to take this bench to a new level.
But what are other places the Blazers could improve in? Well, they don’t have many true playmakers outside of Damian Lillard right now. This isn’t a team that needs a star to get better (Giannis wouldn’t hurt), but rather a few more subtle pieces. Rajon Rondo is expected to decline his player option with the Lakers this offseason, so he could be another guard that contributes to keeping this offense running with Dame off the floor.
The Blazers are a few pieces away from truly becoming contenders in a vicious Western Conference, now all they need to do make moves that get them there fast.
San Antonio Spurs
Verdict: Rebuild
As tough as it is to comprehend, the mighty San Antonio Spurs may need to spend a few seasons among the league’s worst teams. An unfathomable reality for such a historically great franchise, the Spurs don’t have the talent to consider themselves one piece away from contention. On the contrary, they have valuable pieces that could get them a step ahead in the rebuilding process.
It feels like only yesterday that DeMar DeRozan was ripped away from his best friend Kyle Lowry in a trade that sent Kawhi Leonard to the eventual champion Raptors. Since being shipped to San Antonio, he and co-star LaMarcus Aldridge have combined for a 66–62 record in games they play together, just about as average as it gets.
With Aldridge hitting 35 years old and DeRozan in his early 30s, these guys will not be in the league long enough for the Spurs to build a true contender. Considering they are averaging 18 and 22 respectively, the best option for San Antonio here would be to make these guys available for trade and then just stock up picks from there.
Although DeRozan’s mid-range game is a trademark of a style of play that is seemingly gone, it becomes clear that he plays like a man possessed when on a contender. He still has the potential to finish top 10 in scoring anywhere he goes and should draw first-round picks if made available.
Aldridge will likely yield less value, as he is close to retirement and teams will likely be cautious of a drop-off in production soon. Either way, any assets the Spurs can muster for Aldridge would be productive for their long-term goals.
Outside of DeRozan and Aldridge, both of which have contracts expiring at the end of the upcoming season, there is still some veteran presence on this roster. Patty Mills, who could be gone soon due to his expiring deal after this year, has experience on championship rosters and could be an essential piece for San Antonio if they choose to extend him. Rudy Gay is also part of the lengthy list of expiring contracts after 2020–21 so he could be a trade option as well as the best player on this squad while the rebuild.
Another reason a rebuild could go rather smoothly for the Spurs has to be their youth. Guys like Dejounte Murray, Lonnie Walker IV, and Derrick White fit the mold of the classic Spurs. They have fantastic fundamental games and play solid D, and they are sure to be part of any rebuild options.
Their solid youth infused with the marketable trade pieces they have make rebuilding the obvious choice for a Spurs franchise that has always been obsessed with building dynasties. Although a rebuild would likely encourage legendary coach Gregg Popovich to retire after his contract expires in a few years (although there’s no telling with Pop), the Spurs need to look to the future. They are more than a few pieces from being the conversation of contender and will need a full rebuild to get going in the right direction.
At the end of the day, any of these teams can put themselves in a position to succeed down the road. While it’s hard to accept the end of a historically good run or simply to blow up a team in general, these are the decisions that are remembered years later when the franchises that made the hard calls eventually win it all. All that remains now for these 3 squads is to pull the trigger and hope they made the right call.
