Russell Westbrook Instantly Raises Houston’s Ceiling and Lowers Its Floor
Russell Westbrook is now in Houston. Does this improve Houston’s title odds next season?
Houston — The Rockets, in a shocking offseason move, have just traded Chris Paul, first-round picks in 2024 and 2026, and pick swaps in 2021 and 2025 to the Thunder for Russell Westbrook, a former MVP.
For Houston, there has to be excitement due to the fact that they just combined two of the past three MVPs on the same roster. However, General Manager Darryl Morey might have just mortgaged his team’s future for three to four seasons of the Harden-Westbrook tandem. In particular, giving the Thunder a pick swap in 2025 and a first round pick in 2026, when Harden is exciting his prime and Oklahoma City should be entering contention, could turn out a huge mistake by Morey.
While acknowledging the fact that Houston may have just compromised its future for one aging star, I will solely focus on the fit of Harden and Westbrook and the potential of the new-look Rockets for this upcoming season.
The potential for this new Rockets team to regress from the previous season is massive. The Westbrook-Harden duo is, without doubt, the most dynamic, yet volatile tandem in the league. Add in a coach in Mike D’Antoni, who, for the past three seasons, has unleashed Harden by using him in an unprecedented amount of isolations and pick and rolls, and the Rockets may have an issue on their hands. The saying of “there is only one ball” was commonly used to describe the fit of Paul and Harden, and with Westbrook, this phrase is even more relevant. Both Harden and Westbrook have historic usage rates, and for the past three seasons, neither have developed the type of off-ball game that would suggest their games would complement each other.
Also, Westbrook’s performance as a scorer has been trending down ever since his MVP season. If he cannot recapture some of the magic that made him special during the 2016–2017 campaign — the clutch shooting, relentless finishing, 84.5% free throw shooting on 10 attempts per game, and the surprising career-high 34.3% from three on 7.2 attempts per game — than the Rockets could fall out of true contention, which would be devastating for a franchise that has been on the cusp of greatness over the past two seasons.
Westbrook and Harden is fairly redundant, and much more redundant than the pairing of Paul and Harden. Westbrook and Harden both need the ball to be effective. The Rockets’ offense may delve into the “my turn, your turn” isolation-heavy style of basketball run by the Thunder when they had Kevin Durant. While Westbrook may be better at isolating than the 34 year old Paul, there is a ceiling to that style of basketball — just look at the 2017–2018 Rockets team.
With all of these issues said (and there are many), adding Westbrook may turn out to be the right decision for the Rockets. Here’s why:
While it does seem unlikely that Westbrook and Harden can ever exist off the ball, it is a necessary step that both need to take in their careers. Harden has even hinted that he does not actually enjoy isolating over and over again. With Westbrook’s true skills as a passer, he should thrive feeding Houston’s shooters and Clint Capela, Houston’s athletic, rim-running center. If Harden finally decides to play more like a traditional shooting guard by utilizing handoffs and off ball screens more often, Houston’s offense may have better flow than it has in the D’Antoni era.
Defensively, while Paul has been excellent throughout his career, Westbrook fits Houston’s defensive system better than Paul. The Rockets have been famous for their extreme switching style of defense, and Westbrook, as a more athletic and bigger player than Paul, will fit right in with this style of defense. It also hides Westbrook’s biggest flaw on defense, which is off-ball defense, because he does not have to chase players off screens or handoffs anymore. When Westbrook inevitably gets switched onto a center, he will be at less of a disadvantage than any other guard in the league due to his athleticism. He is also probably the league’s all-time best rebounder as a guard, which is something that Houston has struggled with over the past two seasons.
Also, Westbrook’s career is at a crossroads. He has now been left high and dry by two of the league’s best players, one of whom he considered a “brother”, and another who he had a genuine friendship with off the court. If Westbrook cannot change his ways and adapt his game to play with other stars, than his career may ultimately be considered a disappointment. From all that can be gathered thus far, Westbrook and Harden are both determined to make this partnership work. Of course, this is true about all superstar duos in the NBA, including the failed Paul George-Westbrook tandem and Paul-Harden duo, so it will be interesting how close Harden and Westbrook actually are.
If Westbrook does prove to be an upgrade over Paul, then the Rockets may very well find themselves in the Conference Finals or NBA Finals next season. Certainly, with both Paul and Westbrook on extremely large salaries, it makes sense that Houston preferred Westbrook, who is 4 years younger than Paul. With Paul and Harden reportedly clashing throughout last season, it also made sense to move Paul as soon as possible.
The NBA is as competitive as ever, so Harden and Westbrook need to both play at a near MVP-level to survive in the playoffs. In Westbrook’s case, his habit of taking inefficient shots and getting caught up in personal rivalries in the playoffs will need to change if Houston is going to make a run for the title. Also, while Harden has shown he can be an effective #1 scoring option in the playoffs, he has not been able to consistently perform at his best against the top teams in the playoffs.
If Westbrook and Harden turn out to fit perfectly, then the Rockets will be among the top-3 teams in the West, along with the two teams in L.A. If not, then, in a few seasons, the Rockets will be peppered with questions about why they decided to give away their future for a player that made the team worse. Both Harden and Westbrook need to be able to coexist with each other, and only time will tell if they will.
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