The Ben Simmons Conundrum: Where Can the 76ers Trade Him?
It is all but inevitable that the 76ers will trade Ben Simmons. However, manufacturing a trade for the former #1 pick is extremely complicated
IT’S BEEN TWO months since the Sixers’ disappointing second-round exit in Game 7, and the Ben Simmons trade discussions have quieted.
A split seems inevitable for Philadelphia and their embattled star. However, as has been widely reported, Daryl Morey’s front office has demanded a James Harden-esque package for Simmons, requiring at least an All-Star and draft compensation. In almost any scenario, even one where Simmons returns to Philly and shows noticeable improvement, Morey won’t get that type of trade offer.
Adding uneasiness to the situation is the flurry of rumors surrounding the team.
Simmons and Doc Rivers’ relationship reportedly rook a significant step back after the postseason. If you’ll remember, Simmons was enthusiastic to play for a new coach entering the season, and he was “elated” to not be traded for Harden. During the season, Rivers was Simmons’ biggest supporter, going so far as to question Sixers fans who continued to critique the All-Star’s lack of a jump-shot.
Yet, by the end of Game 7 and Simmons’ historically bad performance at the free-throw line in the playoffs, Rivers was defeated. He admitted he didn’t know if Simmons could be a “championship point guard,” and he went from being adamant that he would leave Simmons in fourth quarters regardless of any “Hack-A-Ben” strategies to benching his star guard in Game 7.
Outside of Simmons’ rocky relationship with Rivers, there are also rumors that he has ignored Joel Embiid’s attempts to contact him, as well as the Sixers’ attempts to send a training staff with him. The former issue may just be inconsequential: Sixers teammates like Danny Green have stated that they’ve given Simmons some mental space after last year’s struggles. The latter issue, however, is a problem.
Rivers was firm in his conviction that he had an offseason plan that would help Simmons develop his game. Yet, social media videos suggest that Simmons has stayed with famous NBA trainer Chris Johnson, who has worked with him for multiple years (and hasn’t unlocked Simmons’ shooting). One might remember that Brett Brown tried to fix Simmons’ shooting with an offseason regiment that was ignored by his star guard; the fact that this scenario may be repeating is not a good sign for Philadelphia.
Regardless of his flaws, both on and off the court, Simmons is still admittedly a terrific basketball player. He’s a blessing on the court, one of the few star players in the NBA who takes pride in playing defense and setting up teammates. As the talent on his team has increased, he has continually recommitted to the less glamorous aspects of the game, while remaining as an elite fast-break playmaker and a strong finisher.
Still, his flaws have dictated where he (and the Sixers) are today; projecting a landing spot for the All-Star depends on two major factors: where could Ben Simmons succeed, and what would the Sixers get in return?
WHILE SIMMONS’ STRENGTHS and weaknesses are generally well known, there are some minute details in his game that need to be pointed out.
The first has to do with playmaking. Simmons is generally known as an elite passer and terrific playmaker. In reality, his passing abilities need a closer examination.
Simmons has the traditional makings of an elite passer: his assist rate has been around 31–37% in his four seasons and he has averaged 7.7 assists per game.
Yet, be it a lack of aggressiveness, a fear of being fouled, or another reason, many of his assists come off of basic passes where he does not threaten the defense at all.
The perfect example of this is Game 7 against the Hawks, where Simmons’ 13 assists do not tell the whole story. Most of his assists are a result of simply swinging the ball to teammates; his lack of aggressiveness (which eventually resulted in him passing up a dunk late in the game) is evident.
Watch the video for yourself. I’d argue that his assist total could be cut in half if the scorekeeper was less generous with his definition of an “assist.”
What makes this reality damning is that, should a team trade for Simmons, they have to decide whether or not he will be their primary playmaker. One can argue that on a team with Joel Embiid, Simmons does not have much space to be a downhill playmaker. That’s fair, and there have been many instances where Simmons has looked like a superstar when playing alongside four three-point shooters.
Yet, in the clips above, he looks oddly passive as a lead guard — that is likely why most contending teams view him as a Draymond Green-esque player. But is Draymond Green worth a star player and multiple first-round picks? Is he even worth an All-Star player?
The answer to those questions is no, and it puts Daryl Morey in a predicament. Simmons, to the Sixers, is an All-Star caliber player. He is the lifeblood of their transition offense, their best perimeter defender, and one of their few players who can attack the basket consistently.
Yet, to other teams, Simmons’ trade value has depressed to that of a younger, more athletic Draymond Green — still valuable, but not worth the haul that Philly will want.
CAN BEN SIMMONS be a top option on a contending team?
That is the second major question he has yet to answer, and while it seems prudent to give his elite playmaking abilities the benefit of the doubt, there is little indication Simmons can be a first or second option on offense.
For one, his finishing skills at the basket are less impressive than one might expect.
Simmons has had a strange preference for shooting layups with his right hand predominantly, a trait that leads many to think he shoots with the wrong hand and causes him to shoot many awkward attempts. Furthermore, he shies away from contact at times: he is probably the only player in the league who attempts many sweeping, fading sky-hooks; he does so in favor of aggressively seeking contact at the basket.
This also relates to his free throw woes, as his mental struggles at the line affect his finishing skills.
As mentioned earlier, there are times where Simmons does show the type of downhill, aggressive finishing that led his comparisons to LeBron James and Magic Johnson.
As shown in the video above, Simmons’ finishing wasn’t perfect, but it’s clear his downhill style in that game improved his effectiveness as a scorer and as a playmaker.
It’s games like these that draw optimism towards Simmons not having to compartmentalize his game. Which team will be willing to give him that chance remains to be seen.
The elephant in the room regarding Simmons game isn’t his passing, scoring, or aggressiveness, however. It is his shooting.
Of course, he just had a historically bad showing at the free-throw line in the postseason, but he has eliminated mid-range and three-point attempts from his arsenal as well.
The only room for optimism regarding his shooting would be two separate moments of time.
First, Ben shot 70.7% from the line in his first postseason run, which would be the best mark of his career (and a good sign given that he shot 56.0% in the regular season). Secondly he, according to Brett Brown, underwent a “paradigm shift” regarding taking three-pointers early in the NBA Bubble; there was some evidence that he would take corner threes in the Sixers’ offense. However, he got injured, and he never regained that progress.
If it feels like I am grasping at straws with these notes, it’s because I am: there is almost no reason to expect Simmons to become even a competent shooter going forward.
Perhaps the better question is ask is, will it matter?
Simmons could shoot 30% from three on 3+ attempts per game. The impact that doing so would have on his offensive game is overstated. Teams dare Russell Westbrook and Giannis Antetokounmpo to shoot threes just as willingly as they do with Simmons. The most pertinent difference is that, with everything on the line, Westbrook and Antetokounmpo strike fans as players who are willing to risk failure for the chance of success; Simmons, as evidenced by his passivity throughout Games 5–7 in the playoffs, lets his fear of failure dictate his chances of success.
With that said, I think the biggest impact that shooting will have on Simmons’ game is that it will allow him to be more aggressive: if he does not fear being fouled, his aggressiveness at the rim can increase exponentially.
A secondary benefit is that it would give him a place to be when he does not have the ball in his hands (in a half-court setting). Currently, he stays in the “dunker’s spot,” a place traditionally relegated for ’80s power forwards who lacked offensive talent and merely fought for offensive rebounds. If he could spot-up for corner threes, he would have more offensive utility.
Simmons, for all of his gifts, is reduced to no more than a spectator when he plays off the ball, and it hurts players like Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris, who have less spacing on the court as a consequence. As it stands, Simmons is one of the best transition finishers and passers in the league, but he is below-average in a half-court setting.
Will that be enough to dissuade a team from trading for him, or will the potential of a 6'10", playmaking forward with elite defense and average free-throw shooting be enough for teams to go all-in on Simmons?
IT’S TIME TO look at some potential trade partners for Simmons, with one major concept tied in: “championship probability.”
Here’s my unofficial, hastily written definition of championship probability:
The odds of a team winning the title based on roster construction, injuries, seeding, and talent.
Last year’s Philadelphia team, believe it or not, almost maximized their championship probability: they were the #1 seed, avoiding the Nets or Bucks until the Conference Finals, and they could have realistically won the title by simply being the healthiest team left (assuming the Nets and Suns advanced and continually suffered the injuries that they did in actuality).
With that in mind, Daryl Morey (whom I think is too quickly written off as being a “one-trick pony” because of his stint with the three-point-obsessed Houston) will not trade Simmons for a player who eliminates almost any chance of them winning the title. Ben Simmons nearly makes it impossible for Philly to win given his shooting deficiencies and passivity, but other players, as we will see, will make it impossible for the Sixers to win.
The Pacers were the first team to be rumored with an interest in Simmons. Malcolm Brogdon is a terrific fit in Philadelphia, where Embiid’s presence will ensure he won’t be overworked as a playmaker. Will T.J. Warren be the difference-maker in the deal? I have to imagine no: there’s a lot of overlap with Warren and Tobias Harris, and not a lot of perimeter defense between the two.
Philly will only make a trade if they replace Simmons’ talent and his defense; I’m not sure the Sixers would be able to make up the defensive loss by trading for Brogdon + Warren or Brogdon + Jeremy Lamb, but it’s not a bad fall-back option.
The Blazers are a highly rumored destination for Simmons, with C.J. McCollum being the guard that Philadelphia would receive in return. However, McCollum alone shouldn’t be enough for the Sixers: he’s limited by his athleticism and his size, and there would be such a tremendous offensive burden placed on his shoulders.
If Portland includes Robert Covington, however, these talks become far more enticing: Covington, at least as a help defender, can make up for a good amount of Simmons’ defensive value. There are still questions about this trade on Portland’s side, namely: does Simmons fit with Jusuf Nurkic, and/or can Portland acquire a stretch-five?
Minnesota is probably my favorite fit for the 3x All-Star, but a trade centered around D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley creates issues related to championship probability. What recent title team has had their top perimeter creator rely as heavily on mid-range shots as D’Angelo Russell does? How many modern title teams’ star guards do not finish well at the rim or get to the free-throw line at a low rate (like D’Angelo Russell does)?
Russell and Beasley represent a tremendous defensive downgrade, and their offensive upside doesn’t compete with the firepower of the Nets or even the Bucks. The way I see this trade going down, however, is if Minnesota cashes in on many assets for Simmons (Russell, Beasley, Jaden McDaniels, first-round picks, etc.) and Morey uses those assets as a way to pull off another trade.
The Bulls, once upon a time, were rumored to Zach LaVine for Simmons. That no longer makes sense from Chicago’s perspective — there is a lot of overlap between Lonzo Ball and Simmons — unless the Bulls want DeMar DeRozan to be their #1 option (hint: they shouldn’t). Speaking of which, a Simmons-DeRozan swap down the road is somewhat enticing because DeRozan is a great downhill scorer and elite playmaker for others, though I’m not sure the Bulls have many assets to give the Sixers commensurate value for Simmons via draft capital or role players.
The Raptors could trade for Simmons in multiple ways: a straight-up swap of Pascal Siakam (a former All-Star) for Simmons, or a package headlined by Fred VanVleet and O.G. Anunoby. Siakam’s fit on Philly is extremely shaky, and Morey probably doesn’t want to put anybody but Tobias Harris next to Embiid after seeing the results of the Horford-Embiid pairing. VanVleet, meanwhile, comes with the same concerns as Russell: he doesn’t finish particularly well at the rim, nor does he get to the free-throw line often. However, he and Anunoby are terrific defenders, so I’d highly consider making the trade, even if it is a significant talent downgrade.
The Warriors could trade Andrew Wiggins and some of their assets (James Wiseman, Johnathan Kuminga, or Moses Moody) for Simmons. His fit with Draymond Green is suspect, which reportedly is the cause of internal debates in the Golden State front office. Meanwhile, like with the Minnesota trade, Morey would have to involve a third team or make a secondary trade if he dealt Simmons to Golden State: Wiggins and unproven talents will not win Philly a title.
Some Honorable Mentions:
- The Kings could trade for Simmons, though unless they are giving up De’Aaron Fox, I don’t see how Morey would view Buddy Hield and Marvin Bagley as a step forward for his roster.
- The Mavs want to swap Kristaps Porzingis, but a Porzingis-Embiid pairing might be untenable defensively (and has tremendous injury concerns).
- The Cavaliers were tied to Simmons, but Colin Sexton is not the type of lead guard that would boost Philly’s championship probability.
- The Clippers and Lakers, no matter how much Simmons wants to be moved to a California team, are not options.
And there it is.
I’ve called Simmons’ situation a “dilemma,” I’ve called Simmons “the most polarizing star in the league,” and I’ve described him as a “blessing” and a “curse.” That rings true today, as I could talk myself into wanting a motivated, improved Simmons (who has worked tirelessly on his jump-shot in the offseason) over trading him for anybody offered above, except for maybe a package of Zach LaVine or a package of McCollum + Covington.
But isn’t that the trap that Simmons has left me, Sixers fans, and analysts in? Every summer he is supposed to improve his game, and every season he reinforces his value as a playmaker and top-notch defender, and yet, the result has been the same: failure in the postseason.
It’s probably untenable for Simmons to return to the Sixers: the pressure of fans, the organization, and teammates makes the idea of his rebuilding his game from the ground up unlikely. However, the Sixers also have an MVP candidate in his prime, and they’re not going to trade Simmons if it does not maximize Joel Embiid’s title-contending window. That’s why it is so difficult for Simmons to be traded, no matter how loud the calls for him to leave Philadelphia are.
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