The ‘Boom or Bust’ Potential of the Toronto Raptors
For the defending NBA champions, 2020 is an opportunity to sign impactful players and potential stars — but it comes with a risk
This past offseason has been as eventful and impactful as any free agency period in recent history, rivaling the 2010 class featuring the Miami Heat’s “Big 3”, and the 2016 offseason in which Kevin Durant moved to Golden State. The offseason a year after an eventful free agency in the league is always less impactful and less exciting, because most teams use up their cap space in the prior offseason.
For some teams, however, off-season’s that do not have the most popular players in the sport are a chance to quietly improve the team by signing veteran players or build for the future by signing potential stars. The 2020 offseason fits into this category.
The Toronto Raptors will either benefit greatly from the 2020 free agency class or will regret their decisions in the future.
First, it is important to mention the one name that stands above the rest in 2020: Anthony Davis. If the LeBron James and Anthony Davis pairing goes wrong for L.A., and Davis looks to play elsewhere, then the potential acquisition of Davis will likely take precedence for the Raptors over all other free agents.
This would be a comparable situation to the Kawhi Leonard’s free agency this past summer, because multiple NBA teams, including the Raptors, would stop all of their offseason plans for a chance at Davis the same way the Lakers, Raptors, and Clippers did.
Assuming Davis resigns with the Lakers, which is likely whether or not the Lakers make the NBA Finals, there are no other All-NBA caliber players left in 2020. But what makes 2020 so intriguing is the potential of many players available.
Having just won the title, the team is filled with quality veterans like Serge Ibaka, Marc Gasol, and Kyle Lowry, but also has young talent including last year’s Most Improved Player, Pascal Siakam, and developing wing OG Anunoby.
There are three possible routes the Raptors can take, all of which will be outlined in this article. The Raptors can either go all-in, rebuild, or retool their roster in 2020. Their choices will have a lasting impact on the team.
The first option for the Raptors is to resign and acquire veteran pieces in hopes of contending for the remainder of Lowry, Ibaka, and Gasol’s careers while Siakam enters his prime. Certainly, there is no shame in taking this route, because with the 2019 championship core excluding Kawhi Leonard, the Raptors will probably remain as a strong playoff team until their veteran players retire. The issue with this, however, is that doing so lowers the Raptors’ ceiling and makes winning a championship very unlikely.
Also, the Raptors essentially already chose not to take this path when they traded their franchise player, DeMar DeRozan, for Kawhi Leonard. Keeping DeRozan and Lowry ensured successful regular seasons and multiple playoff appearances for years to come, but Raptors GM Masai Ujiri chose to go all-in for a championship instead.
The second option is to trade their veterans on expiring contracts, which are Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka, and Marc Gasol, in exchange for some combination picks and younger players. This is the most assured way of getting future assets, because there will be multiple playoff teams in need of the services of anyone of those three Raptors veterans around the trade deadline. Toronto can capitalize on teams going all-in by trading away those veterans for assets.
There are multiple risks in play, however, because there is no guarantee any young players or draft picks the Raptors receive become stars or high-level complementary pieces for the Raptors. Because all of the valuable veterans on the Raptors are aging rapidly (Ibaka is the youngest, and he will turn 31 this season), any trades will probably not yield them any potential stars or select draft choices, which are the best way for Toronto to build a future contender. Expect the Raptors to opt for this route only if they have a poor record at the trade deadline.
Lastly, the Raptors can opt to offer large contracts at several restricted free agents’ summer, in hopes of finding a second star to pair with Pascal Siakam. The risk they would run by doing this is if the player they sign does not live up to their potential or has injury problems. On the other hand, the Raptors are in the unique position to offer exorbitant amounts of money at those restricted free agents, to the point where the players’ original team would be inclined to let them leave.
The two most valuable restricted free agents are Brandon Ingram and Jaylen Brown. Ingram and Brown are both 23, with lots of untapped potential. Ingram has lots of talent, and he is a consistent jump-shot away from being an all-star caliber player, but the Raptors would be investing around $30 million annually for a player who has battled injuries and just dealt with blood clots. Brown may not have the same injury issues as Ingram, but he has only thrived as a cog in a great offensive system, and has not shown many signs of being a shot creator or playmaker in Boston.
Of course, Ingram or Brown could reach their full potential and team up with Siakam to become a terrific duo that makes Toronto a contender. But it is equally as likely that the Raptors could find themselves regretting their decision to hand out maximum contracts to two unproven players, and Ingram and Brown never develop into stars.
If Ingram even becomes available for the Raptors, it will likely mean that the Pelicans either do not trust in his health or his long-term fit with Zion Williamson. Both of these are red flags for the Raptors because Ingram’s fit next to Williamson is comparable to his potential fit next to Siakam, and Ingram’s health may derail his career.
All in all, this raises Toronto’s ceiling to contender status, but it comes with a risk. It would not be surprising if Toronto opts for this route, because as the 2019 Raptors just showed, it takes risk to win a championship. The same way Toronto took a chance on the expiring deal of Kawhi Leonard, they can take a chance on Jaylen Brown, and maybe even watch him blossom into a home-grown version of Leonard. The players the Raptors could potentially sign is why the Raptors may either boom or bust.
Toronto’s future is in flux, with no true direction yet. They have become one of the most interesting championship teams ever, to some degree. They are one of the few championship teams that does not have a realistic chance at repeating.
With so many potential moves the Raptors could make, it will be fun to see what GM Masai Ujiri has up his sleeve. After all, the last time Ujiri made a risky move, he became a champion.
Update 9/26/19: Jaylen Brown is seeking a near-maximum contract extension from the Celtics, with chances of an extension being reached reportedly “slim.” This opens the possibility of the Raptors acquiring Brown by offering him a max contract.
