The Playoff Implications of the NBA’s Trade Deadline Frenzy
With a hectic trade deadline, here is the current landscape of the race for the NBA championship
OVER THE COURSE of the past week, the NBA has seen many transactions go through, as Thursday’s trade-deadline loomed over the league. While there were no groundbreaking trades involving star-level players, many teams improved on the margins, while others simply added talent when given the opportunity (Andre Drummond to Cleveland, anybody?).
As has been mentioned repeatedly mentioned throughout this season, however, is the distinct lack of a overwhelming favorite to win the NBA Finals. The Golden State Warriors fully committed to making this season a rebuilding season, and last years champion, the Toronto Raptors, no longer look like an extremely formidable threat now that Kawhi Leonard resides in L.A.
Below are the championship contenders who made trades, with the potential playoff implications being discussed.
Note: Because this list only has contenders, other blockbuster moves like the D’Angelo Russell trade will not be discussed.
Philadelphia 76ers
Received: Glenn Robinson III and Alec Burks (via Golden State); the L.A. Lakers’ 2020 second-round pick
Traded: James Ennis III and three second-round picks (2020 Dallas, 2021 Denver and 2022 Toronto)
Waived: Trey Burke
By far the NBA’s most frustrating and disconcerting team thus far, the Sixers are struggling due to their apparent locker room issues, poor roster construction, and lack of cohesion. The new, radiant aura that the team presented after sending out mercurial superstar Jimmy Butler is gone — and the tense and fractured state of their locker room has returned.
In fact, on the first game of TNT’s doubleheader, a graphic showed just how far the disconnect for the Sixers has gone amid their struggles.
Firstly, newcomer Josh Richardson called out the team for a lack of “accountability” — which opened up the vulnerability of a Sixer locker room that has seen many conflicts play out over the years. Also, throughout the season, their star center, Joel Embiid, has consistently complained about a lack of an “offensive identity,” hinting at a rift with Ben Simmons, who called the team “soft” after their loss to the Miami Heat. And Al Horford, a player who was signed to a massive contract in part due to his professionalism, even claimed, “There’s some stuff going on in our locker room.”
In fact, throughout this extended struggle, only forward Tobias Harris hasn’t openly griped about the team — though his struggles to thrive when Simmons and Embiid share the court with him must be a personal point of contention.
To help solve their woes, GM Elton Brand acquired Alec Burks and Glenn Robinson, both of whom were signed to cheap contracts in free agency by Golden State and are on expiring deals. They won’t solve the Sixers very real chemistry issues, as the team sent out a very professional player in James Ennis III to acquire them, but they will improve the Sixers’ shooting and bench scoring, two glaring needs.
Burks projects to fill the role that was envisioned for Trey Burke, an explosive, “microwave” scoring threat who is athletic, can create his shot and play on/off the ball. He will likely slot in as the “6th man” in Brett Brown’s rotation. In the playoffs, when the Sixers are likely to shorten their rotation to leave out a true back-up point guard, Burks will likely team up with Richardson to run the offense by committee when Simmons is on the bench.
For the rest of the regular season, Burks can be incorporated in multiple ways: with Embiid on the floor, he can run pick and rolls or space the floor when Embiid posts up; with Simmons, he is likely to look to score in transition and move off Philadelphia’s complex system of off-ball screens to look for drives and three-point shots.
Robinson III’s fit is more fluid, as he was primarily brought in as a strong spot-up threat who will compete on defense. He projects to fight with rookie phenom Matisse Thybulle and Furkan Korkmaz for reserve minutes on the wing. He offers less defensive ability than Thybulle, though his shooting ability may keep him on the floor longer than Thybulle. He also is less valuable as a shooter than Korkmaz, who is better at running off of screens, but Korkmaz’s slow feet on defense will make him less appealing to Brett Brown in the playoffs, in all likelihood.
Philadelphia has already gone “all-in” on contending for the duration of Harris and Horford’s contracts, and for as long as they can keep the Simmons and Embiid together. Their mid-season trades have aided two of their biggest needs, but will these changes save them against Boston, Miami, Toronto, or the ungodly Milwaukee Bucks?
The Sixers may be able to out-muscle the Heat and Celtics in a theoretical playoff scenario, but they are equally to be run off the floor by the cohesive, athletic, and fast-paced style of their opponents. And unless Brett Brown makes drastic changes (e.g. benching Al Horford in favor of Robinson III against all playoff teams except Milwaukee and Indiana), these new mid-season acquisitions will not move the needle in a playoff series.
Perhaps these trades will revitalize the Sixers’ season, much the same way that the mid-season acquisitions of Marco Bellinelli and Ersan İlyasova did three seasons ago. But as of now, the Sixers are putting bandages on bullet wounds.
Houston Rockets
Received: Robert Covington, Bruno Caboclo and Atlanta’s 2024 second-round pick via the Golden State Warriors.
Traded: Clint Capela, Nene Hilario, Gerald Green, 2020 first-round pick
Waived: N/A
Whenever Mike D’Antoni has reminisced on his past contenders in Phoenix, built around point-guard maestro Steve Nash, he has consistently expressed one regret: his teams never completely bought into his offensive philosophies. Whether it be roster construction or players’ shot attempts, all signs point to the mid-2000’s Suns teams being innovative, but not fully invested in three-point shooting and analytics.
With Thursday’s 4-team, 12 player trade, D’Antoni will never express regret over this rendition of the Houston Rockets no buying into floor-spacing and three-point shooting.
Now, the Rockets are rolling out a team with 6'5" P.J. Tucker as the starting center, and have fully bought into the five-man lineups that have brought them success in the past. But until the playoffs, it is impossible to call their decision to trade away starting center Clint Capela for Covington a success or failure.
Sure, the Rockets may go on a roll to end the regular season — but with a team led by James Harden, regular-season success is a given. Whether they kept Capela or not, they would have regular-season success just based on the offensive brilliance of Harden.
For the past two seasons, they have rolled the Utah Jazz in the playoffs, relying on the famed “Tuck-Wagon” lineups that have featured Tucker at center against Rudy Gobert. If the two teams meet again, the Rockets have more than enough talent (and shooting) the overwhelm the Jazz and render Gobert to no more than a net-zero player. This same scenario works against the Dallas Mavericks, as the Rockets could swarm Luka Doncic while keeping a top-notch perimeter defender on Kristaps Porzingis at all times.
Against the rest of the contenders (the two L.A. teams, Denver, and even OKC), however, the Rockets strategy is questionable, though an undeniable fact is that Capela was not the answer against the best teams in the Western Conference. Since being promoted to a starting role, his numbers have increased, but his impact has only diminished.
Despite adding Russell Westbrook, the Rockets pick and roll frequency has plummeted, as they have looked to expedite their offense by relying on isolations over pick and rolls. With virtually no screening opportunities, Capela’s greatest value was taken away, and his performance on defense did not justify keeping him. Houston also appeared to have buyer’s remorse since signing Capela to an extension, so it was time to move on.
They paid a hefty price for Covington, without a doubt, but his defensive abilities and shooting fits in perfectly with the Rockets. However, it is unclear if Covington’s regular-season value will hold up in the playoffs. His only experience in the playoffs came in 2018, where he was replaced by backup point guard T.J. McConnell due to his offensive struggles. That was two seasons ago, but the Rockets cannot afford for their shooters to go cold again in the playoffs (a similar story happened with Houston’s Danuel House last year).
Out of the top three contenders in the West (Denver and the L.A. teams), Houston matches up well with the Clippers. If Westbrook and Harden out-perform Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, the Rockets may have a chance. But the Clippers’ small-ball lineups, now featuring the newly-acquired Marcus Morris Sr., may have more two-way potential than the Rockets. Defensively, if Covington and Tucker take on the two toughest assignments in Leonard and George, then the Rockets will be left with one of Harden, Westbrook, House, or Eric Gordon, to guard Montrezl Harrell, a brutal reality considering Harrell’s viability on defense against the Rockets.
The new-look Rockets just defeated the Lakers on Thursday night. But giving LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the super-sized Lakers lineup seven games to score on a lineup whose tallest player is 6'8" (Covington) is a recipe for disaster. The teams will meet again in the future, which will reveal more about this potential playoff matchup, but in reality, the Rockets will probably only be able to win if Westbrook scores on high volume and efficiency, something he hasn’t done in the playoffs for many years.
That leaves the Nuggets and the young duo of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. The Rockets are the litmus test for Jokic’s superstardom, as his ability to exist defensively against a five-out attack led by Harden as well as his ability to punish mismatches in the post will prove how viable he truly is as a no. 1 option. The Rockets have had success in the recent past against the Nuggets, mostly due to Harden’s ability to pick apart Denver’s defense, so Daryl Morey is highly unlikely to be stressing over a potential second-round matchup with Denver.
These new-look Rockets are pushing the boundaries of what modern basketball truly is, but as always, this group’s success hinges on the NBA Playoffs, where nothing is certain about this team.
L.A. Clippers
Received: Marcus Morris Sr.
Traded: Jerome Robinson, Moe Harkless, their 2020 first-round pick and a 2021 second-round pick (via Detroit)
Waived: Isaiah Thomas
The arms race is on in L.A., as the Clippers snagged Marcus Morris from the Knicks (and the Lakers), by sending out Moe Harkless, struggling sophomore Jerome Robinson, and a first-round pick.
Morris himself won’t be the difference in a potential WCF matchup between the Lakers and Clippers, but he is another dangerous addition who could swing a playoff series with some hot shooting. He is also a tough, gritty veteran who competes on defense, though his lateral quickness leaves much to be desired.
Be wary of Morris’ inflated numbers, even his extremely efficient three-point shooting, as Morris will have to settle into a role where his shots attempts are decided by George, Leonard, and the other talented Clipper players.
One analyst projected that this trade could see Morris turn out like Tobias Harris did for the Sixers last season, struggling to find a role and having decreased shooting percentages as a result. That is a pessimistic projection, yet one that is very likely heading into the stretch run of the NBA season.
Morris also fits in well with lineups featuring Leonard, George, Montrezl Harrell, and Lou Williams as a tertiary playmaker, complimentary scorer, and decently switchable defender.
Against smaller teams like Dallas and Houston, Morris could find himself being guarded by slow big men, small guards, or superstars trying to rest on defense. Those scenarios project well for Morris, who has been tuning his isolation and playmaking abilities while serving as the Knick’s best scorer.
Against teams like the Lakers, Nuggets, or Jazz, Morris will find success as well, though likely with fewer mismatches to take advantage of on offense.
All in all, Morris is a strong piece for the Clippers who will immediately help them as Leonard continues to “load manage” and George struggles with occasional injuries. And in the playoffs, we will in all likelihood see the impact Morris could have had for the Lakers, showing the impact that he truly has for the Clippers: another piece that is ready to go to war against the Lakers.
Miami Heat
Received: Andre Iguodala, Solomon Hill, and Jae Crowder
Traded: Justise Winslow, Dion Waiters, James Johnson,
Waived: N/A
The Heat invested even more into their potential for a championship this season, adding veterans Jae Crowder and Solomon Hill from Memphis while also winning the Andre Iguodala sweepstakes. They now have more versatility and depth, as Crowder and Hill can fit into the rotation and exceed the production of the departed Dion Waiters and James Johnson.
They made these trades while retaining cap space for the summer of 2021, where they are expected to make a run at Giannis Antetokounmpo, Victor Oladipo, and other star free agents to pair with Jimmy Butler.
But the most disconcerting part of the Heat’s trade deadline was their willingness to ship out forward Justise Winslow, whom the team had heavily invested in developmentally and signed to a team-friendly contract. Was the guarantee of Iguodala’s elite defense and secondary playmaking more valuable than the untapped potential of Winslow as a 3&D wing with above-average handles?
Injuries robbed the Heat of truly testing the Butler-Winslow dynamic, the biggest issue in Winslow’s fit on the team. But why the Heat are so confident in the abilities of Iguodala, who has been largely unproductive in recent regular seasons remains unclear. Perhaps, with the emergence of Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro as sharpshooters and the development of Kendrick Nunn and first-time All-Star Bam Adebayo as playmakers, Winslow was seen as expendable.
The Heat are currently 4th in the East, a place that has them set for a first-round matchup against Philadelphia. However, they could move up in the standings and/or their opponents could slide in the standings, so no playoff matchups are guaranteed. It’s difficult to confidently claim that Iguodala will have a profound impact in any playoff series, especially against Philly, as the Heat often play zone against the Sixers, negating any 1-on-1 defense, which is Iguodala’s primary value. His fluky three-point shooting will also be an issue, as teams will dare him to make open shots all game long.
Iguodala will be more useful against the rest of the East, especially against the likes of Milwaukee and Boston, who have multiple scoring wings. But again, will the value of a 36-year old Iguodala negate his offensive deficiencies?
The Heat missed out on the true piece to take their team over the top, Danilo Gallinari, who they reportedly were attempting to include in the Iguodala trade, though they could not agree to an extension before the deadline, stalling all trade talks. Gallinari’s versatility would be perfect in Miami, and his experience as a veteran makes him significantly more valuable than Robinson or Herro come playoff time.
Still, the Heat are playing the long game, believing rightfully or wrongfully that they are the frontrunners to land Giannis Antetokounmpo. But while they are preserving cap space for 2021, they don’t seem very concerned about preserving Jimmy Butler’s health, a concerning idea given Butler’s reliance on athleticism and his injury-plagued past.
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