The Ultimate Guide to 2020 NBA Free Agency
Projecting potential suitors and flight risks in a limited NBA free agency class
Find a full free-agent list at Sportrac
FG% = Field-goal percentage, FG3% = Three-point field-goal percentage, FT% = Free-throw percentage
AS TEAMS LOOK to gain a competitive advantage in an increasingly competitive league, they’ve consistently turned to free agency. However, unlike many star-studded free agent classes of recent season, the list of available players in 2020 are not particularly deep or talented as a whole.
Still, there will always be valuable players to hit the open market, the names of whom I have listed.
Firstly, I categorized the players into one of four distinctions: players who are either a lock to stay (resign) with their current team, “flight risks” to join another team, young talent that can be acquired, or veteran role players that will be targeted by contending teams. Secondly, I identified potential suitors for each player, as well as a prediction for where each player will sign, as of the writing of this piece.
The Locks to Stay
The following players, for a variety of reasons, will not be joining other teams in free agency.
Anthony Davis
26.7 points, 9.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists; 51.1 FG%, 33.5 FG3%, 84.5 FT%
Anthony Davis quietly had an MVP-level campaign this season, only overshadowed by his teammate, LeBron James. He is easily the best lob-finisher in the NBA, and he combines brute post-scoring with flashes of guile and grace that resembles a point guard, not a 6'11" forward. Defensively, Davis is an elite rim protector and one of the best help defenders in the NBA, while quietly taking on more defensive responsibility to guard the opposing team’s best front-court player (including players like Kawhi Leonard at times).
He made it clear that he wanted to go to L.A. or New York when he demanded a trade — and he got his wish.
Los Angeles has it all for a rising star like Davis: a contending roster, another superstar, nice weather, and the Hollywood lifestyle. There is no reason why Davis would leave LeBron James and the Lakers for another team, even if he wants to return to his hometown of Chicago.
Among the reasons why this free agency class has been so dully covered is the fact that a generational talent in “AD” is off of the board.
Verdict: Case Closed — Anthony Davis will resign in L.A.
Brandon Ingram (Restricted)
24.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists; 46.6 FG%, 38.7 FG3%, 85.8 FT%
Things didn’t always look great for Brandon Ingram in L.A., particularly because his outside shooting was suspect and didn’t show much improvement from year to year.
But in New Orleans, Ingram blossomed into an All-Star, showing why he was so often compared to Kevin Durant. He greatly improved his jump-shot, which has made a huge difference for him, as defenses have to honor Ingram’s scoring ability from all over the court.
Though Zion Williamson’s arrival did make Ingram’s numbers take a hit, that is to be expected when an athletic specimen like Zion takes the court. And, more importantly, the triumvirate of Ingram, Williamson, and Lonzo Ball has shown too much potential for New Orleans to afford for any of them to leave. With the Pelicans having matching rights on any contract offers for their All-Star forward, Ingram will be in New Orleans next season, no matter the cost.
Verdict: Ingram will sign a maximum rookie-scale contract extension — like Ben Simmons and Jamal Murray — or the Pelicans will match any free agent offers signed by Ingram
Andre Drummond
17.7 points, 15.2 rebounds, 2.7 assists; 53.3 FG%, 14.3 FG3%, 57.5 FT%
Here’s an interesting name. Unlike Davis or Ingram, whose superior skill and upside make them invaluable to their franchises, Drummond is one of the most devalued “stars” in the NBA — if the star label hasn’t been removed from his name already.
Frankly, Drummond is more than likely to stay in Cleveland — which is far from the ideal basketball situation — because he has no choice. No other team will offer anything close to a max contract for a player, who, throughout his career, has shown in indifference to defense and is limited on offense.
The exchange of Drummond for John Henson, Brandon Knight, and a 2nd round draft pick was an overwhelming indication of how low the former All-Star’s value is around the league. He should take as much money as he can get, while he still can, by staying in Cleveland.
Verdict: Drummond chooses to opt-in on his contract for 2020–2021
*Update: Drummond recently said “I definitely will be in Cleveland” when asked about his contract — meaning he is opting-into his contract.
Gordon Hayward
17.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists; 50.2 FG%, 39.2 FG3%, 84.7 FT%
While Gordon Hayward hasn’t been the same since his days in Utah, he did bounce back from a disappointing 2017–2018 campaign by having a highly efficient season.
His role on the Celtics is well-defined, he has a close bond with Coach Brad Stevens, and he would not receive an offer over the $32 million he is set to make in 2020–2021, if he opted in.
Hayward’s best bet is to prove himself in the playoffs and the following regular season by asserting himself even more on offense. He was at times hesitant this year, and he suffered other injuries that held him back from his full potential. If he has a strong 2020–2021 campaign, he can sign another near-max contract with any team of his liking — a victory for Hayward considering the traumatic injury he suffered in 2017.
Verdict: Hayward chooses to opt-in on his contract for 2020–2021
The Flight Risks
The following players are candidates to not stay with their current teams, for issues relating to their team’s roster or salary cap situations.
Montrezl Harrell
18.6 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists; 58.0 FG%, 65.8 FT%, 58.0 eFG%
Montrezl Harrell is one of the best sixth men in the entire NBA, as a perennial Sixth Man of the Year candidate. The refining of his skills in isolation/post-up scenarios is quite promising, but there are certain needs that Harrell simply cannot fill.
For one, Harrell is not a strong rim protector or defensive rebounder, though he does offer above-average perimeter defense for his position. Also, Harrell needs a playmaking guard like Lou Williams to maximize his scoring ability.
Harrell comes with enough red flags that many teams may not put forth the offers that he would expect, so expect Harrell to stay in L.A. — unless he grows tired of a sixth man role or Jerry West and the Clippers front office decide not to give Harrell the contract he likely desires.
Potential Suitors:
- L.A. Clippers: Harrell’s success began in L.A., and it should continue in L.A. The only question is whether or not Doc Rivers will ever start Harrell over Ivica Zubac
- Charlotte Hornets: Harrell has proven to be successful as a pick-and-roll partner before; pairing him with two talented guards in Charlotte could be successful. Also, the Hornets need a consistent front-court scorer, which Harrell has become in recent years
- Oklahoma City Thunder: OKC has a multitude of expiring contracts this summer; Harrell could become a long-term partner to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as the Thunder look to reshape their roster for the future
Prediction: Harrell re-signs with the Clippers
Hassan Whiteside
16.3 points, 14.2 rebounds, 3.1 blocks; 61.8 FG%, 68.0 FT%, 62.1 eFG%
Hassan Whiteside had a conflicting season. On the one hand, he recovered from his nagging injuries in Miami to post some of the best numbers of his career. On the other hand, he did little to uplift Portland’s defense, and he didn’t fix his blasé attitude towards guarding players outside of the paint.
With Jusuf Nurkic coming back this season, even off of a devastating leg injury, all signs point to Whiteside’s time in Portland being done. In a specific role, Whiteside may excel, but handing out a huge contract to a player who has struggled with motivation before is a worrying proposition — just ask the Miami Heat, who saw Whiteside’s overall productivity and energy decline after they signed him to a huge extension.
Still, for all of his flaws, Whiteside will be signed somewhere, perhaps on another expiring contract. His fit in Portland is gone, and another team will need to roll the dice on him.
Potential Suitors:
- Charlotte Hornets: Desperately need a center to shore up their defense and free up their two scoring guards on offense
- Toronto Raptors: There is a huge vacancy at center in Canada; if Serge Ibaka and/or Marc Gasol are not resigned, then Whiteside becomes a somewhat attractive, but expensive replacement
- Boston Celtics: In the scenario where teams turn their back to Whiteside, the Celtics could offer a cheap, “prove it” style of contract (similar to DeMarcus Cousins with the Warriors) — though this is unlikely
Prediction: Whiteside signs with the Hornets
DeMar DeRozan
22.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, 5.6 assists; 52.6 FG%, 26.7 FG3%, 84.3 FT%
Since leaving Toronto, DeMar DeRozan has had a bumpy two seasons in San Antonio. His scoring numbers have taken a hit, and his defense has fallen to the point where he is one of the worst defenders in the league.
However, his playmaking and shot-creating abilities (at least in the regular season) should leverage DeRozan into receiving a big contract. He is reportedly unhappy in San Antonio, and as the Spurs look to rebuild, DeRozan is a likely candidate to move on from the team.
Contending teams would be wise to stay away from offering DeRozan a huge payday, however — the former Raptors’ star has never performed t his best when the lights are brightest.
Potential Suitors:
- Orlando Magic: If the Magic want to continue making the playoffs, they will need another shot-creator to help Nikola Vucevic and Markelle Fultz. DeRozan is, for all of his flaws, a talented scorer
- Atlanta Hawks: Though DeRozan’s shooting is a major liability, he would alleviate the load on Trae Young should the Hawks look to move on from John Collins — who seeks a max contract
Prediction: DeRozan signs with the Magic
The (Somewhat) Young Talent
Though there is a dearth of young talent that is available in free agency, there are still three players in particular who have yet to reach their full potential that are available this summer.
Fred VanVleet
17.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, 6.6 assists; 40.9 FG%, 38.8 FG3%, 84.3 FT%
Fred VanVleet became a Canadian hero in the 2019 Playoffs, and he continued his success in a larger role this season. In those playoffs, he proved to be a clutch shooter, someone who is not afraid of the moment, and his disciplined defense made VanVleet, and not Kawhi Leonard or Danny Green, the Raptors’ top choice to guard Steph Curry in the NBA Finals.
This season, though he dealt with injuries, VanVleet grew as a player, particularly as a player who could create his own shot. All of his advanced metrics portray a high impact player, and his ability to coexist with stars or take over individually makes him an ideal fit on most teams.
Kyle Lowry is aging and may not last long in Toronto. At any rate, it will take a huge effort to pry VanVleet from Canada, but if a team manages to do so, they will receive a proven NBA champion.
Potential Suitors:
- Toronto Raptors: VanVleet could be Toronto’s guard of the future, as Kyle Lowry ages. We’ve seen signs of what VanVleet can be as a lead guard this season, with injuries being the only potential downfall in keeping the fan-favorite guard
- New York Knicks: Whether or not the Knicks draft a guard in the Draft, VanVleet would help the Knicks as a scorer who can play on/off the ball as R.J. Barrett develops
Prediction: VanVleet re-signs with the Raptors
Bogdan Bogdanovic (restricted)
14.5 points, 3.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists; 43.3 FG%, 36.1 FG3%, 72.4 FT%
Last fall, Bogdan Bogdanović turned down a $51.4 million extension, betting on himself to continue improving. He did exactly that. Though his shooting percentages are nothing to marvel at, Bogdanović brings a certain savvy, grace, and skill that are not easy to replicate.
It’s telling that the Kings started Bogdanović over Buddy Hield, and perhaps it is even more telling that Sacramento went on a roll after the lineup change. For months now, reports coming out of Sacramento have claimed that the Kings are keeping Bogdanović at all costs.
But with teams now being strapped for cash, perhaps another team can acquire Bogdanović’s services, through offering a contract or making a sign-and-trade.
Potential Suitors:
- Sacramento Kings: The Kings somewhat prioritized Bogdanovic over Buddy Hield when they benched Hield, and all signs point to Sacramento keeping their talented European guard on the roster
- L.A. Lakers: The Lakers need playmaking and shot-creation, and a sign-and-trade with the Kings would acquire them a strong playmaker in Bogdanovic
- Orlando Magic: Markelle Fultz’s struggles to shoot are notorious, so pairing him with a talented shot-creator, as opposed to the off-ball scoring of Evan Fournier, is an attractive proposition
Prediction: The Kings match any offers for Bogdanovic in free agency
Christian Wood
13.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.0 assists; 56.7 FG%, 38.6 FG3%, 74.4 FT%
After showing flashes of immense potential in the final games of the Pelicans’ 2018–2019 season, Christian Wood was signed by the Detroit Pistons. Early on, his performance fluctuated as he was behind Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond in the rotation.
But with Drummond traded and Griffin suffering numerous injuries, Wood took the spotlight as a young talent who is athletic, skilled, and, most importantly, an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. He defends with passion, finished around the basket, and is a borderline elite shooter for a player of his physical stature.
He has been compared to a “poor man’s Anthony Davis” for his length, versatility, and skill, all of which makes the opportunity to acquire his services so pressing for many teams this summer.
Potential Suitors:
- Detroit Pistons: The Pistons have committed to rebuilding, outside of trading Derrick Rose and the cumbersome contract of Blake Griffin, and the potential Wood showed makes him an ideal building block for the future
- New York Knicks: The Knicks had an overload of forwards who (outside of Marcus Morris) didn’t fit with R.J. Barrett. They could fix their mistakes by acquiring Wood
- Atlanta Hawks: If the Hawks don’t want to pay John Collins the max that he desires (they shouldn’t), then Wood becomes a strong replacement who has shown more willingness to play defense than Collins
Prediction: Wood re-signs in Detroit on a hefty extension
The Valuable Role Players
Scoring Combo Forwards:
If there are two traits that are more valuable than anything else in the NBA, it is three-point shooting and versatility. Forwards that can light it up from downtown and play multiple forward spots are invaluable additions for contending rosters.
Marcus Morris Sr.
17.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists; 43.3 FG%, 41.0 FG3%, 82.3 FT%
In the past two seasons, Marcus Morris Sr. has transformed himself into one of the most coveted role players in the NBA. He brings floor-spacing, shot-creation, defensive versatility, and toughness to his teams.
In New York, Morris honed his isolation skills as he became the team’s number one option on offense. That stretch of games, paired with his success in 2018–2019, was the reason why there was a bidding war for Morris’ services at the trade deadline.
However, Morris struggled mightily after joining the Clippers, which makes his free agency even more interesting. Would the Clippers pay him as if he was performing at the level he was at in New York? Are other contenders wary of signing Morris after seeing how he struggled when surrounded by other ball-dominant stars?
Potential Suitors:
- L.A. Clippers: Morris added to the stable of two-way wings in Los Angeles when the Clippers traded for him — the only question is whether or not L.A. will pay enough to keep him
- Dallas Mavericks: Morris fits nicely as a complementary piece next to Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. His shot-creation slightly lightens Doncic’s workload, and his perimeter defense helps Porzingis avoid guarding quicker forwards.
- New York Knicks: No hard feelings…maybe? Morris took advantage of increased responsibility in New York, and he was having the best stretch of his career there. The fit remains in NYC unless the Knicks finally commit to rebuilding.
Prediction: Morris re-signs with the Clippers
Danilo Gallinari
19.2 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.1 assists; 43.9 FG%, 40.9 FG3%, 88.6 FT%
Danilo Gallinari quietly was an All-Star snub in 2018–2019, and he continued his resurgence after being traded to the OKC Thunder this season. He is a player who fits on any team, and this showed with the Thunder as he played perfectly off of Billy Donovan’s triumvirate of guards (Chris Paul, SGA, and Dennis Schroder).
He is one of the best shooters in the league, particularly at the power forward position, and he makes room for elite guards to attack and make plays.
This shooting ability makes Gallinari appealing to all teams, contending or not, and thus, his free agent decision will be particularly interesting.
Potential Suitors:
- Oklahoma City Thunder: All signs point to OKC trying to be competitive with Chris Paul for one more season, and Gallinari is a necessary component to carry momentum from this year to the next for OKC
- Philadelphia 76ers: Another Al Horford replacement. Also, Gallinari would be paired with Tobias Harris, whom he played extremely well with in 2018–2019, and Al Horford could be reunited with Billy Donovan. Make it happen!
- New York Knicks: If the Knicks want room for R.J. Barrett and their young prospect from the 2020 Draft (presumably a guard) to grow, then Gallinari is an ideal piece in the frontcourt
Prediction: Gallinari stays in Oklahoma City
Elite Three-Point Shooters:
The three-point craze hasn’t slowed down one beat in the past year. Teams are shooting more threes than ever. As a result, the players who are most efficient at shooting threes have seen their value increase two-fold in recent seasons, and this offseason should be no different.
Joe Harris
13.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.1 assists; 47.1 FG%, 41.2 FG3%, 74.7 FT%
After a scorching 2018–2019 campaign that saw him shoot 47.4% from three, Joe Harris somewhat came down to Earth this season. His percentages went down, likely in large part because of the ever-changing roster around him.
When Kevin Durant returns from a torn Achilles and Kyrie Irving returns from a shoulder injury, however, Harris projects to be an ideal role player around them. His three-point shooting has a similar “gravity” to other shooters like J.J. Redick and Klay Thompson — meaning teams go out of their way to prevent him from shooting.
His marksmanship is a mostly proven commodity — though, in his only true playoff appearance, his shooting completely flopped at 19.0% from three. Overall, with three-point shooting being one of the most valued commodities in the NBA, Harris will receive a significant salary — from the Nets or another team.
Potential Suitors:
- Brooklyn Nets: The Nets need to surround Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving with complementary pieces, and Harris fits perfectly as a knockdown shooter
- L.A. Lakers: Danny Green regressed mightily from his scorching season in Toronto to his initial season with the Lakers, and though L.A. was an elite team this season, they weren’t elite from distance, which Harris could change
- Philadelphia 76ers: If the Sixers find a way to complete a sign-and-trade for Harris, their poor outside shooting would suddenly become a strength. Harris could thrive while playing in the “J.J. Redick-role” for Philly.
Prediction: Harris re-signs with the Nets
Davis Bertans
15.4 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists; 43.4 FG%, 42.4 FG3%, 85.2 FT%
Davis Bertans made quite the name for himself this year, going from a meager 8.0 points in limited minutes in San Antonio to 15.4 points with the Wizards this season. His shot profile resembles the aforementioned Joe Harris, along with other sharpshooters like J.J. Redick and Kyle Korver.
But what makes Bertans unique is that he is 6'10", and mobile at that. Teams that choose to put a smaller player on him face the risk of their contests not bothering the long-armed Latvian sharpshooter, while teams that put slower, taller players on Bertans will get left in the dust on off-ball screening actions.
The result is one of the most coveted role players in the NBA being put in unrestricted free agency, where Bertans looks to get a significant raise from the $7 million he made this season.
Potential Suitors:
- Washington Wizards: If D.C. wants to shock the world with the return of John Wall and/or keep Bradley Beal by at least trying to compete, they should resign Bertans
- Philadelphia 76ers: If the Sixers want to move on from Al Horford, there are only a few players who would better alleviate the Sixers’ issues than Bertans would
- Portland Trail Blazers: Portland has struggled to find a quality solution to their power forward spot — even turning to the aging Carmelo Anthony this season. Bertans would be a great fit with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum
Prediction: Washington re-signs Bertans to a long term contract
Veteran Pieces:
Role players with defined skillsets and clear roles are invaluable to building an NBA roster; the following two players are two NBA veterans looking to cash-in on their strong 2019–2020 campaigns.
Evan Fournier (Player Option)
18.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists; 47.0 FG%, 40.6 FG3%, 82.0 FT%
After dominating for the French National Team in FIBA competition this summer, Evan Fournier made huge strides in his development as a scorer. His three-point shooting was elite this season, and Fournier has always been above average at scoring off of screens.
His shot-creation took another step forwards as well; though he isn’t a natural playmaker, Fournier was confident as a scorer with the ball this season, which is important next to a player in Markelle Fultz who is not a good outside shooter.
But, even after a career season, Fournier faces a difficult choice. He could become an unrestricted free agent, turning down a guaranteed $17 million in 2020–2021, while knowing that this offseason could be the most unpredictable in years, or he could opt-in, betting on himself to continue his success from this season.
Potential Fits:
- Orlando Magic: Fournier has been a major reason why the Magic haven’t bottomed out in recent years; if Orlando wants to keep making the playoffs, they should keep their best shooter and scorer
- Atlanta Hawks: Trae Young needs scorers and shooters, and Fournier fits this bill. If the Hawks want to compete sooner than later, replacing Kevin Huerter with a player like Fournier could significantly improve Atlanta’s offense
Prediction: Fournier chooses to opt-in on his contract for 2020–2021
Aron Baynes
11.5 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists; 48.0 FG%, 35.1 FG3%, 74.7 FT%
Nobody made much of the Phoenix Suns trading for Aron Baynes in the 2019 offseason, but the move has proved to be incredibly beneficial for the Suns. When DeAndre Ayton was suspended for PED use early in the season, it was Baynes who took the reins of Phoenix’s front-court.
Always a reluctant shooter, Baynes began to launch from distance more than ever, and the result was a career season. He did this while continuing to be a stout post defender and solid rim protector in limited minutes.
While agility and stamina will always be an issue for Baynes, he resurrected his career in 2019–2020 and could look to capitalize on his success this summer.
Potential Suitors:
- Boston Celtics: Baynes has succeeded in Boston before, and the Celtics need all of the front-court help they can get. With Baynes’ newfound shooting ability, he instantly becomes more valuable than Enes Kanter, Robert Williams III, and Grant Williams for the C’s
- New Orleans Pelicans: While Jaxson Hayes develops, New Orleans needs another center to pair with Zion Williamson. Baynes offers the same physicality as Derrick Favors, also a free agent, but Baynes is also a three-point shooter, which is sure to help Zion.
- L.A. Lakers: LeBron James needs shooters around him, and Anthony Davis needs a center to take on the physical toll of playing center — Baynes fulfills both of these needs perfectly.
Prediction: Aron Baynes signs with the Boston Celtics
All stats via Basketball Reference
