What Does the Future Hold For Giannis Antetokounmpo?
Like LeBron James and Kevin Durant before him, Milwaukee’s long-limbed, home-grown, MVP is set to hit unrestricted free agency with tons of suitors. His decision could send shockwaves around the entire league
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With 7 seconds on the clock, the score is 94–98, and the championship hopes of the Bucks are hanging on by a thread. Pascal Siakam, the Raptors emerging star, is at the line for the second of two free throws.
But first, how did the Bucks even get to this low point? They were far and away the best team in regular season, led by new coach Mike Budenholzer. Giannis Antetokounmpo was the league’s MVP, Budenholzer collected his second Coach of the Year award, Khris Middleton made his all-star appearance, and starters Eric Bledsoe and Brook Lopez saw a revival in their play in a new offensive system.
The Bucks were supposed to show their dominance and make it to the Finals, even with star-studded rosters in Philadelphia, Boston, and Toronto to contend with. They blitzed their competition in the first two rounds, including the Celtics, who many analysts favored over them, despite the Celtics’ struggles throughout the regular season.
When the Raptors won two straight games at home, and then took the pivotal Game 5 in Milwaukee, Antetokounmpo promised the Bucks would exact their revenge and get back into the series. “We’re not gonna fold,” he claimed. “We’re the best team in the league.”
The Bucks came out swinging in Game 6, leading by as much as 15 points. But in the fourth quarter, the Raptors took control of the game, and with 29.6 seconds left, the Bucks trailed by three, and eventually had to intentionally foul.
Siakam shoots his second free throw. It bounces and rolls around the rim until it… ends up in the hands of Kawhi Leonard, the Raptors superstar who would become Finals MVP. And just like that, the fairy tale season of the Bucks was over, and an offseason of questions loomed over the team and the franchise.
Four of the Bucks’ top players were unrestricted free agents in the offseason, yet their impending contracts all seemed like an afterthought compared to the one question that will decide the future of the Bucks franchise, and possibly change the course of NBA history: where will Giannis Antetokounmpo go in 2021 free agency?
A youthful and rangy Giannis Antetokounmpo sent out a tweet. “I’ll never leave the team and the city of Milwaukee till we build the team to a championship level …,” he said. This was in 2014, when he averaged a meager stat-line of 6.8 points and 4.4 rebounds.
Today, as Giannis has blossomed into a strong, powerful MVP-level player, his words are eerily prophetic, given that the Bucks are now one of the NBA’s top contenders.
But, reading his words literally, is Antetokounmpo content with leaving Milwaukee now that he has built the team into a title contender? This is undoubtedly the question that the Bucks will think about all season long, and it will decide their future.
After all, the Bucks molded their team to become the NBA’s next champion this season.
On May 17, 2018, the Bucks hired Mike Budenholzer, a former Coach of the Year in Atlanta whose teams have consistently performed well on offense and defense. He emphasized floor spacing, which opened up driving lanes for athletic point guard Eric Bledsoe and the team’s crown jewel, Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Khris Middleton, who had been criticized for taking too many inefficient shots earlier in his career, started shooting three-pointers at the highest volume of his career, en route to his first All-Star appearance. And Brook Lopez, who the Bucks signed for less than $3.4 million, resurrected his career under Budenholzer, shooting threes at an unprecedented volume for a center.
They opened up their season in the Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee’s shiny, brand new, $524 million arena that is nearby to the Bucks’ $31 million training facility. The new arena represented the Bucks’ new hopes of winning an NBA title, replacing the older, over the hill BMO Bradley Harris Center.
With one of the NBA’s top starting units and midseason trades for veterans George Hill and Nikola Mirotic to flank their bench, Milwaukee created the league’s most formidable team this season. They had the top defense in the league, led by All-Defense performers Bledsoe and Antetokounmpo, had the fourth-best offense, and made the second-most threes per game in the league. Until a two-game losing streak in early March, the Bucks didn’t lose more than one game in a row.
But after their surprising defeat against the Raptors, the honeymoon phase was over for the Bucks. They now had to answer many pressing questions.
With Malcolm Brogdon, who was at times the Bucks’ second-best player against the Raptors, and the aforementioned Lopez, Middleton, Hill, and Mirotic all becoming unrestricted free agents, Milwaukee had to choose which players to keep on their roster. The underlying issue surrounding free agency for Bucks still revolved around Antetokounmpo. The Bucks couldn’t afford to bring back all of the free agents from their 2018–2019 roster, so their choices would have to keep Antetokounmpo happy.
Their first move, before free agency even began, was to resign Bledsoe to a 4 year, $70 million extension during the season. Effectively, they were choosing the mercurial Bledsoe over Brogdon, who, despite being injury-prone, offers more shooting ability and upside than Bledsoe. After the playoffs, in which Bledsoe’s shooting abilities from the regular season fell off, his contract is now of poor value to the Bucks, and it may easily become one of the worst valued contracts around the NBA.
Middleton, who the Bucks prioritized keeping to ensure Antetokounmpo was happy, received a hefty 5 year, $178 million contract. Now, Middleton has gone from being one of the league’s most overlooked and underpaid players to an overpaid, low-tier All-Star. Even if he makes improvements in his performance with a larger role next season, he will almost surely be overpaid for the duration of his contract. Ultimately, Middleton’s value to the Bucks can probably be summed up to whether or not he helps them keep Antetokounmpo in Milwaukee.
Lopez, who was one of the league’s biggest surprises and most valuable contracts, signed 4 year, $52 million contract to return to Milwaukee. He is being paid a fair amount, and he is more valuable to the Bucks than any other team in the NBA because his floor spacing is so valuable paired with Antetokounmpo’s driving ability.
The difference between last season’s roster and this season’s roster for the Bucks comes down to one simple fact: value. More specifically, the Bucks had many players whose value on the court far surpassed the money they were being paid on their contract. Now, with so many players who are being paid more than they are worth, the Bucks are losing all flexibility in improving their roster.
They have two starters in Middleton and Bledsoe who are essentially untradeable, so their only means of improving their roster is Antetokounmpo further improving his performance.
Antetokounmpo is now seeing himself in a similar position to LeBron James in 2010, whose team, the Cleveland Cavaliers, peaked at a Finals appearance in 2007 and a sweep at the hands of the Spurs. James saw a roster that he was consistently being forced to carry throughout the season, winning back to back MVPs and averaging 35.3 points per game in the 2009 Playoffs, only to lose to the Magic in the Conference Finals.
Antetokounmpo will likely realize his best chance at winning a title is elsewhere. Also, if he does stay, he would do so on a “Super-max” contract, which would fill up the Bucks cap sheet, and with Middleton, Antetokounmpo, Lopez, and Bledsoe’s salaries, the Bucks would have to fill out the rest of the roster with minimum salaries, which would only get them replacement-level players. This would further hinder the Bucks’ title chances in the future.
So, if Antetokounmpo ultimately decides to leave Milwaukee, the city where he bloomed into a full-grown international superstar, how would his decision affect his legacy and the NBA as a whole?
Is Giannis Antetokounmpo different? There seems to be no indication from Antetokounmpo that he wants out of Milwaukee, or that he is unhappy playing for the Bucks. The only comment he has made on free agency is calling it “disrespectful” to his teammates to ask him about free agency months before he has to make a decision (he is a 2021 unrestricted free agent, and he is eligible to sign a “super-max” extension this summer).
Yet, we have all seen this story before. As cities like Cleveland, Oklahoma City, New Orleans, and Utah know, stars will often suddenly demand trades or leave their teams high and dry, and give no indications they are leaving during the season. Names like LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis, Gordon Hayward, and Paul George are all examples of this.
There is no uniformity in free agency; no rhyme or reason as to why some stars leave and some stay. Some players are transparent, others are secretive, but the common trait in all of free agency is unpredictability.
Some players want to create a “super-team,” others want to join a pre-existing one. A few stars want to leave their original teams to seek out nicer weather or a bigger market. Even fewer leave their teams to go play with their friends on one team. But all of them are seeking something, and that is a better situation.
And after 2010, when James left Miami and was villainized by the media, there has been a culture of player empowerment in the NBA, a culture which has allowed a countless number of stars to demand trades or sign with new teams without the same backlash they would’ve received a decade earlier.
So how does this tie back to Antetokounmpo? Well, Antetokounmpo’s career will be at a crossroads if he decides to forgo his contract extension and enters unrestricted free agency in 2021. Either Antetokounmpo will go down as one of the last stars to maintain complete loyalty to the team that drafted him, cut from the same breed as Kobe Bryant and Magic Johnson, or he will follow in line with the modern superstar, one who is willing to leave a good situation to go to a great situation.
There are a multitude of teams that will be looking to sign Antetokounmpo, whether it be New York pitching him on the bright lights of Madison Square Garden, the Warriors preaching about their culture, or the Mavericks trying to create a new “Big 3” featuring 3 of the NBA’s brightest international stars.
So again, is Antetokounmpo different than other NBA stars? Will he buck the trend of superstar movement? Only time will tell.
Antetokounmpo’s free agency is so captivating because, like 2010, every single team will be looking to sign him. With his free agency in question, Antetokounmpo will also face more scrutiny and coverage from the media than ever before. No longer is it good enough for Antetokounmpo to solely focus on winning basketball games. Now, if the Bucks go on a losing streak, or Antetokounmpo appears frustrated with a teammate, there will be non-stop questioning about his free agency.
Antetokounmpo’s legacy will be defined by his free agency decision. If he signs the “super-max” this summer, he will be celebrated as the first major victory of the “super-max” contract, a contract designed to entice stars to stay on their original teams. Otherwise, he will fall in line with Kevin Durant, LeBron James, and the rest of the NBA superstars who have changed teams in the era of player empowerment.
All it will take is for Antetokounmpo to “put pen to paper.”
All stats via Basketball Reference
All contracts via Spotrac
