Who Will Win the 2020–2021 NBA MVP?
A preseason prediction for the NBA’s Most Valuable Player award
AFTER AN UNPRECEDENTED NBA season which began with a return to parity, multiple strong MVP candidates, and an extremely high level of play overall, it feels like the right time to reassess the landscape of the league.
What players might take a “leap” this season, going from star to superstar? Likewise, what superstars might see their MVP case take a hit?
Since the 2015–2016 season, the MVP has gone to the player with the best statistical case for the award, yet, with Giannis Antetokounmpo having won the award in back-to-back seasons, it feels like a new player will be crowned.
Additionally, with the context of an abbreviated offseason for most playoff teams, as well as the implication that the losing teams in the 2021 Playoffs could see their top players walk in a stacked free agent class, there are many factors to consider in this year’s race.
With that being said, here are some key factors I considered when making this list:
- Statistical Dominance: The easiest way to win voters is by simply having a dominant statistical season — which appeals to the analytics-driven crowd and to more traditional basketball audiences as well.
- Narratives: The ever-changing aspect of the MVP race, narratives can be the difference in how voters interpret a player’s season, which, as has been proven in the past, can make a huge difference in the MVP race.
- Wins: A general rule of thumb is for the top MVP candidates to be in a Top 2 seed in their conference.
- Availability: If LeBron James consistently emphasizing the fact that he did not load manage last year didn’t prove that availability matters, I don’t know what will. Rumors of aggressive load management plans are already being rumored, so the star player who pays the most games will have an edge in the MVP race (for this year especially).
Without further ado, here are some of the top MVP candidates for 2020–2021, as well as my prediction.
On the Outside Looking In:
Here’s the category of players whose MVP candidacy peaks at receiving a third-place vote for the award. These honorable mentions are star players, but for one or more factors, will likely not win the 2020–2021 MVP.
Chris Paul and Devin Booker
Last year, Chris Paul was a great example of how a shifting narrative can impact a player’s perception. With the Thunder, he regained superstar status as the media narrative around him began to focus on his redemption after a poor season in Houston, as well as his statistical brilliance.
Likewise, the narrative around Devin Booker has shifted after his undefeated run in the NBA bubble. Once labeled as being an empty stats scorer, Booker gained respect around the NBA for his bid to make the postseason last year.
But my issue with these two guards simply comes down to wins. I’m not sure if the Suns will be a Top-4 seed, which is where I would draw the line for being a serious MVP candidate. But, who knows? The Suns caught me by surpruse in the bubble, and maybe they will do so again this season.
Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal
The Wizards have two stat-stuffing, high volume scoring guards in their dynamic backcourt. Like the duo before them, however, they will likely struggle to accrue enough victories to make them serious threats for this award.
I like the fit of Westbrook and Beal to an extent, provided Westbrook plays in a similar style to his last season OKC (eschews threes, focuses on playmaking, takes a secondary role as a scorer).
What would be problematic is if Westbrook’s latest star partnership was like his first season with Paul George-— when Westbrook actively took shots away from his teammates by being a #1 option and insisting on controlling the offense in close games.
Overall, there’s too many holes in this star-studded backcourt for me to label them as true contenders for the award (and this is with me assuming they will win more games in the East then say, Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks).
Rudy Gobert
If voter fatigue applies to Gobert’s Defensive Player of the Case, then there really is no scenario in which he wins an MVP award. Unfairly or not, he is labeled as being a defensive specialist with little offensive skill — despite posting an unworldly offensive rating last season.
The subtleties in Gobert’s game — which made him more valuable than Donovan Mitchell for many seasons — are overlooked in the more broad headlines that dominate MVP conversation.
Add in the fact that Gobert is not a go-to scorer or a lock to be a #2 seed, and the former DPOY’s case for the award is significantly harmed.
Ben Simmons
Simmons checks many of the boxes to be an MVP: he has been durable, he posts great numbers, and plays for a (mostly) winning team. Yet, he would need to take another leap from stardom to superstardom for him to become a serious MVP candidate.
The Simmons we saw last season was a great all-around player, someone who was a DPOY candidate, a primary playmaker, and a second option on offense. Yet, for Simmons to win MVP, he would likely need to be Philadelphia’s closer and even more of a go-to scorer.
I simply do not see that happening, and the East is competitive enough that I’m not convinced that the revamped roster around Simmons is enough for Philly to be a Top-3 seed either.
Paul George
George has been in the top tier of MVP candidates before — hence why L.A. had to trade a historical haul of draft capital for him, but this may be the end for George’s true MVP case.
He is clearly not the best player on his team, he suffers from nagging injuries constantly, and frankly, he would have to perform at a historic level to regain the favor of the media narrative.
I think George can be an All-Star or even an All-NBA player, but the MVP seems out of reach at this point.
Mid-Tier Candidates:
Nikola Jokic
Does Nikola Jokic care about the regular season?
It’s a fair question to ask given his annual slow starts, and based on that pattern, Jokic will not win the MVP. He threatens to be a Top-5 player when the Playoffs start, but his regular seasons have been filled with lackadaisical efforts and a marked lack of aggressiveness.
Could this change? Possibly, but I think the more likely scenario is that Jamal Murray and Jokic split scoring responsibilities during the regular season, and this would mean that “The Joker’s” statistical case for MVP could be harmed.
Also, Denver might not be a Top-3 seed in the West this upcoming season, and if they do fall out of the Top 3, there might be no way for Jokic to realistically win the MVP.
Joel Embiid
Two years ago, when Joel Embiid averaged 27.5/13 and 2 blocks per game, while also leading the Sixers to the third seed in the East, he was in this position in the MVP race.
Now, he has a chance to repeat that success, with a roster that makes sense around him.
Last year saw a demotivated and sloppy Embiid, who was visibly less engaged on defense and sometimes passive on offense. This year, that cannot be the case — both for if Philly wants to win a championship, and if Embiid wants to win the MVP award.
Unfortunately, barring unforeseen changes, I don’t think the Sixers’ success or a media narrative will be enough to push Embiid into the top tier of MVP candidates.
Jimmy Butler
To be honest, Jimmy Butler only moved up from the third tier of MVP candidates because of his playoff performance and Top-10 player in the league status.
Butler plays hard during the regular season, but he is also willing to let his teammates take a high volume of shots — which actively takes away from his counting numbers.
There’s a scenario in which the Heat take the #1 seed in the East, proving that their Finals run wasn’t a fluke and actively boosting Butler’s case for the MVP award. But in all likelihood, Butler will take a more conservative approach to this season, having had an incredibly short offseason after a grueling playoff run.
Jayson Tatum
Tatum can win the MVP — but he might need to take one more leap as aa superstar talent in order to do so. Without a doubt, he proved to be a two-way star who was efficient as a volume scorer, a good defender, and an above average playmaker.
To win the MVP, however, I think Tatum would either need to drastically improve his scoring volume or his playmaking, and I’m not sure either of those will improve to the level at which he can realistically win the MVP.
Still, the Celtics have a good chance of being a Top 2 seed and Tatum has a good chance of being an All-NBA Second team member, so he slots in here.
Donovan Mitchell
If Donovan Mitchell turns a corner as volume scorer and puts up regular-season scoring numbers that are comparable to his 2020 playoff stats, then I genuinely see a case for him to be in the top tier of MVP candidates.
Unfortunately, the historical evidence overwhelmingly points to Mitchell being a good but bot great player in the regular season who does not contribute anything outside of scoring at a superstar level.
So what will we see? Like Jokic, Mitchell seems to always hit a new gear in the postseason, but to win the MVP, he will need to post historic scoring numbers for 72 games — while also being a Top 2 seed in the loaded Western Conference. It’s a tall task for sure, but there is a pathway for Mitchell to be a dark-horse MVP candidate.
Top Picks:
LeBron James
My initial caveat about availability applied most directly to LeBron James, who, after playing the majority of his team’s games last season, and making a strong push for the MVP, likely won’t win the award this year.
He, at 36, is in the business of winning championships, and especially after such an abbreviated offseason, his goal of winning a ring does not overlap with winning the MVP.
I think LeBron will not only aggressively load-manage his body this year; I think he will spend most of the games he does play in ingratiating himself with his new teammates by being a primary playmaker.
The Lakers are the preseason favorite to win the NBA Championship, but it is LeBron’s star teammate, not him, who I would give the edge to as an MVP candidate.
Giannis Antetokounmpo
The only valid reason why Giannis Antetokounmpo might not win the MVP this season is voter fatigue.
The Bucks have the regular season down to a science: their reigning MVP puts up super-human numbers while playing limited minutes every season. Yet, after two straight MVPs (and two straight playoff flame-outs), I do not think Antetokounmpo will win a third straight MVP.
If he were too, however, that would likely indicate that he developed his skillset, particularly as a shooter and ball-handler — which would spell trouble for the rest of the league come playoff time.
Anthony Davis
Davis had a decent case for MVP last season, but after a historic playoff run, Davis’ case for the elusive award is even stronger. In particular, Davis took on many unique defensive assignments (guarding Russell Westbrook in one series and Jimmy Butler in another, for instance), and his shooting reached new levels of efficiency.
If his Kevin Durant-esque levels of shooting translate to the 2020–2021 season, and Davis wins Defensive Player of the Year, the MVP award might be his.
Of course, having LeBron James (unfairly or not) actively takes away from Davis’ MVP bid, and so will the Lakers potentially resting him for many games to save him for the postseason.
Weighing all of these factors, I would put Davis as a Top-4 candidate for the MVP, but probably not the favorite to win the award.
Kawhi Leonard
For the first time in a while, Kawhi Leonard has something to prove.
He had a great regular season last year, but his poor performance against Denver and his load-management strategy puts a ceiling on his MVP case.
However, this season, if Leonard truly goes all-out in this regular season, then I think he can be a Top 3 candidate for the award, much like he was in his last healthy season in San Antonio.
He already showed strides as a playmaker last year: perhaps he can grow on that skillset and continue to be an uber-efficient volume scorer.
The Clippers as a whole disregarded the regular season last year, but if they truly push to be the top team in the NBA, then Kawhi Leonard will have a very good chance at winning the MVP.
James Harden
Will James Harden even be on the Rockets by the end of the season?
Harden is the MVP constant, the player whose scoring totals and team success make him a perpetual MVP candidate.
But with so much uncertainty in Houston, this might be the season Harden finally drops out of the Top 5 candidates for the award.
Kevin Durant
While I have little doubt that Kevin Durant will be a superstar coming off of his injury, I do have my reservations about his MVP case — especially with a roster around him that has so many guards and scorers that take the ball out of his hands.
In his only MVP season, Durant played the majority of his season without an injured Russell Westbrook. This year, he plays with a ball-dominant star in Kyrie Irving, but also talented young guards in Caris LeVert and Spencer Dinwiddie.
Adding in the likelihood that Durant rests throughout the season in recovery from his injury, and I just don’t see KD winning his second MVP this year.
Damian Lillard
Damian Lillard might have a Top 3 case for the MVP, and it all hinges on whether or not his team can be a Top 3 seed in the Western Conference.
Lillard already puts up superstar scoring numbers and has gained respect around the league for his dominant play. Now, with a healthy roster that fits around him, Lillard and the Blazers are looking to contend, and if they truly are contenders, then Damian Lillard might win the 2019–2020 MVP.
If the Blazers don’t win enough games, however, then we will see a repeat story for Lillard: All-NBA consideration and superstar status, but no hardware to show for it.
Steph Curry
Like Lillard, I think Stephen Curry is in a position where he simply needs to win enough games to persuade voters to give him to MVP. He, in the absence of other perimeter superstars, will likely put up scoring totals we haven’t seen since 2015–2016.
But, I’m not sure if the Warriors are true contenders — and their status in the league is mostly dependent on how dominant Curry is in the regular season.
Again, like Lillard, I think the Warriors’ regular season standing and success will largely decide Curry’s fate as the MVP this year.
Luka Doncic
Possibly the early favorite to win the award, Luka Doncic was already an MVP candidate last year, and he can win it this year.
Firstly, if Kristaps Porzingis is healthy and his team builds on their success, Doncic might have the team success to win the award.
Secondly, Doncic put up historic numbers on relatively poor efficiency — if he improves his efficiency this year, he will see a major boost to his candidacy from a more analytics-focused crowd.
Lastly, Doncic probably does not need a specific media narrative to his advantage — having already taken the league by storm in his first two seasons.
This season has many factors to consider, making it an irregular MVP race to predict. However, there are still candidates that stand out from the rest, and I have the following as my top candidates:
- Luka Doncic
- Anthony Davis
- Kawhi Leonard
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
This feels like a probability experiment more than anything else, and the players who are locks to have strong winning records and statistically dominant seasons have an edge above the rest.
But, rest adds an unpredictable variable into the equation, and because of rest (as well as the stakes of the 2021 Playoffs), I have to pick Luka Doncic as my early choice for the 2020–2021 MVP.
Here’s hoping I was right.
