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The Knee Surgery Dilemma: What My Mother-in-law Taught Me About Life’s Bets

The Secret Formula to a Lucky Life Is the Power of Compounding Your Bets

AI image created on MidJourney V6 by the author

A few days ago, my mother-in-law discussed her knee problem. She recently had an MRI and talked with the doctor, who recommended surgery to replace the kneecap.

According to the doctor, the surgery has an 80% chance of improving her knee pain and mobility, meaning that there’s a 20% chance of not improving the pain.

My mother-in-law then commented, “As unlucky as I usually am, most likely, I will be among those 20% that won’t recover from the knee pain. I don’t want to do the surgery.”

I totally understand her thought process. My mom had a very similar mindset, which ended up destroying rational decision-making and trapping her in an emotional trap.

This is the result of a “pessimism bias” where people have the tendency to overestimate negative outcomes.