China’s Novel Coronavirus: What we know so far, combining different reliable sources(Updated)
This is the 1st part of a series of fact-based articles trying to understand the pneumonia-causing virus that has world on its feet and Wuhan City in lock-down.
What is this ‘Coronavirus’ ?
These are a family of viruses that has a knack for infecting your respiratory tract. Most of the common colds are caused by them, but they can also be deadly and cause life-threatening pneumonia like the SARS virus in 2003.
These viruses are called zoonoses, because they are transmitted from animals to humans. SARS virus was found to be transmitted from civet cats to humans, but the original habitat of the virus was probably bats. It could also transmit from human to human, making it contagious and dangerous.
Scientists have analyzed the genetic makeup of this novel coronavirus causing an outbreak in China; it’s at least 70% similar to SARS and has the ability to adapt and change. As per initial clinical records the infection in humans causes symptoms including fever (>90% cases), malaise, dry cough (80%), shortness of breath (20%) and respiratory distress (15%).
So What Happened (and is happening) in China?
Here’s a brief timeline to the event, check out this space for updates, as the situation related to the virus is changing rapidly.
31st December 2019 : China informs WHO(World Health Organization) of an outbreak of pneumonia of unknown cause.
1st January 2020 : The cluster of patients who suffered with pneumonia are all linked to the Huanan Whole Sale Seafood Market in Wuhan which also sold wild animals. Market is identified as the origin(‘epicenter’) of the infection and is closed down.
7th January, 2020 : China health authorities rule out the usual suspects : SARS, MERS coronavirus and Influenza. Geneticists confirm a new coronavirus as the culprit causing the outbreak and find that its at least 70% similar in genetic sequence to SARS. WHO names it 2019-nCoV.
10th January, 2020 : China confirms the 1st death due to the virus. Victim was a 61 year old man with an abdominal tumor and liver cirrhosis. 41 diagnosed cases are identified in the initial cluster of patients. A married couple is identified among the patients with one not visiting the market, raising the possibility of human-to-human transmission.
12th January, 2020 : Genetic sequence of 2019-nCoV is shared with WHO and other countries who can now conduct their own analyses and develop PCR tests to diagnose the virus.
13th January, 2020 : First confirmed case outside China is reported from Taiwan. The patient is a resident of Wuhan but did not visit the Huanan Market.
16th January, 2020 : Japan reports is first confirmed case, a traveler from Wuhan with a possible contact with a pneumonia patient.
19th January, 2020 : China reports its first cases outside Wuhan, one in the southern province of Guangdong and two in Beijing; The number of confirmed cases rises sharply to 201 and death count to 3, suggesting the virus is more contagious than previously thought.
20th and 21st January 2020 : South Korea, Taiwan and USA all confirm first diagnosed cases of 2019-nCoV infection, all travelers from Wuhan. Chinese Health authorities confirm the human-to-human spread of the virus.
22nd January 2020: WHO gathers to decide whether the outbreak should be classified as a ‘Public Health Emergency of International Concern’ (PHEIC), committee fails to reach to a consensus due to lack of information.
New cases pop up from Hong Kong and Macau, Death toll rises to 17 in China and the total confirmed cases stand at 517 inside China.
23rd January 2020 : Wuhan in lock-down: China decides to ban all flights and trains in and out of Wuhan effective at 10.00 AM local time (02.00 AM GMT) the place where it all started. Public transportation is cut-off in the city, although Chinese media claims that around 300,000 people fled Wuhan before city closure. China attempts to quarantine a city of over 10 million people.
China bans all public gatherings all over the country, cancelling celebrations of the country’s much awaited event, Lunar New Year, which falls on Saturday, 25th of January. Neighboring cities in the Hubei province are also facing travel bans to contain the spreading virus. Beijing’s Forbidden City, one of the country’s top tourists attractions, also said it would close until further notice.
New cases are reported from Singapore, Vietnam and Saudi Arabia. Total confirmed cases stand at 647, 632 coming from Mainland China. Death toll remains at 17.
23rd January, 11.31 pm local time : 8 cities join Wuhan in lock-down.
24th January, 2020 : Wuhan city under quarantine, The provinces and municipalities of Hubei(where Wuhan is located), Anhui, Tianjin, Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Sichuan, Jiangxi, and Yunnan declare a level 1 public health emergency(the highest level)
Total count as of 24th January : At least 881 confirmed cases in China, 11 cases abroad. Total number of Deaths: 26.
25th January, 2020 : Chinese Media reports that Total confirmed cases rises to at least 1297 in Mainland China and 19 and Total death count 41. WHO’s latest report on 24th January gives a number of 849 Total cases, 830 cases in China and a total of 25 deaths(all in China).
29 out of 34 provincial-level jurisdictions in China activate highest emergency response.
Malaysia and Australia report their first confirm cases.
26th January, 2020 : As per Chinese media reports, The confirmed cases stand at at least 2,070 in China by 26th January evening, with 37 cases abroad and 56 Deaths (all in China). Situation seems to be rapidly escalating with the counts rising from 1287 at the end of 24th January to 1975 at the end of 25th January; a 54% rise in just 24 hours.
27th January, 2020 (morning) : As of 12 midnight on 26th January(2400 hrs) the National Health Commission of China in their official website reports a total of 2,744 confirmed cases in 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) of China. They also report 461 severe cases, 80 cases of deaths, and 51 cases of hospitalization. There are 5794 suspected cases according to the website. Death toll rises to 80.
Total cases abroad is at least 37 as of 27th morning with confirmed cases in USA rising to 5. However, there’s no high level risk announced in any of the countries except China.
China warns that the virus could spread in the incubation period(period from the date where a person is infected to the date he/she has symptoms), but evidence is still pretty low.
China also postpones Lunar New Year celebrations to February 2nd.
28th January, 2020 : Confirmed cases: 5,997 in China, 57 abroad. Total Deaths: 132.
WHO is launching a Global 2019-nCoV Clinical Data Platform to allow Member States to contribute anonymized clinical data in order to inform the public health clinical response.
29th January, 2020 : Confirmed cases: 7,736 in China, at least 75 abroad. Total Deaths: 170.
WHO, together with World Economic Forum, launches a public private partnership called “The Pandemic Supply Chain Network (PSCN)”, a platform for data sharing and collaboration.
30th January, 2020 : First confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease in Finland, India and Philippines; all had travel history to Wuhan City.
Total confirmed cases : 8149 in China, 82 abroad in 18 countries. Total Deaths stand at 170. (all in China)
WHO is proposing ‘2019-nCoV’ as an interim name of the virus. The final decision on the official name of the virus will be made by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses who is meeting today.
WHO RISK ASSESSMENT (as of end of 29th January):
- China- Very High
- Regional Level- High
- Global Level- High
LATEST UPDATE (30th January) : WHO has now declared Wuhan coronavirus to be a public health emergency of international concern. CDC(USA) reports the first confirmed human to human transmission in the country. Previously all confirmed cases had a travel history to Wuhan, China.
So who’s at risk and what measures can be taken?
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC), the national Public Health Agency in USA has issued a Level 3 Warning against traveling to China.
So what can the public do? What precautionary measures can be taken? We have discussed it in graphical detail here. (free access with this link)
Until then, stay safe! (and go through this infographics provided by WHO)
References :
Hui, D. S. et al. (2020) ‘The continuing 2019-nCoV epidemic threat of novel coronaviruses to global health — The latest 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China’, International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 91, pp. 264–266. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.01.009.
Huang, C. et al. (2020) ‘Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China’, The Lancet. doi: 10.1016/S0140–6736(20)30183–5.
Novel Coronavirus in China — Watch — Level 1, Practice Usual Precautions — Travel Health Notices | Travelers’ Health | CDC . Available at: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/watch/novel-coronavirus-china (Accessed: 24 January 2020).
Novel Coronavirus 2019.|WHO. Available at: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019 (Accessed: 24 January 2020).
What do you need to know about the new coronavirus in China? | South China Morning Post (no date). Available at: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047066/what-do-you-need-know-about-new-coronavirus-china (Accessed: 24 January 2020).
