Hindsight Bias: Why You Make Terrible Life Choices

Nir’s Note: Discover other reasons you make terrible life choices like confirmation bias, distinction bias, extrinsic motivation, fundamental attribution error, hyperbolic discounting, and peak end rule.

By: Erik Johnson and Nir Eyal

In 2000, a 69-year-old man began experiencing a persistent cough, chest discomfort, and weight loss. His physician recommended a radiograph of his chest to identify the root of the issue, which revealed a large tumor. A biopsy confirmed the worst: malignant thymoma, a cancer hiding between the lungs consuming the patient’s body from the inside out1. Though the tumor had been growing for years, if left untreated, the man would die of the disease within 16 months.

Shocked, the man struggled to understand how this could have happened. Three and a half years earlier, he’d had the same chest radiograph done as part of a routine examination. The radiologist who did the original exam found nothing out of the ordinary. Now, because of the bad test results, there was little time for treatment.

The patient decided to sue the doctor who missed the tumor.

In the trial, the patient’s attorney showed the initial x-rays to other radiologists, who had no trouble identifying the tumor. There it was. The doctors corroborated; they could all see…