2016–17 Western Conference Preview and Predictions + Finals Pick
The NBA season is almost upon us! In this post, I’ll answer some questions about the Western Conference as well as predict the playoff order, conference champion, and NBA Champion! I’ll be back tomorrow with awards predictions!
Who will be the West’s most improved team based on win totals?
The two teams I thought about for this question were the Lakers and Timberwolves.
The Lakers obviously aren’t yet ready to make the playoffs with all of their core players still so young and developing. The thinking here was a little bit like my Sixers pick for this question in the East. The Lakers were just so bad last year — winning just 17 games — that they have nowhere to go but up. With Kobe retiring, the Lakers can finally look toward the future and focus on the development of D’Angelo Russell, Brandon Ingram, Julius Randle, and Jordan Clarkson. I think the removal of Kobe form this team frees the Lakers up to play a new, running, three-heavy offense under Luke Walton, and they will win more games than expected, maybe in the 30–32 range.
However, the Baby Lakers are not my pick.
The fact that the Timberwolves have Tom Thibodeau won me over.
In his first season as head coach of the Bulls in 2010–11, Thibodeau led Chicago to an increase of 21 wins and the number 1 seed in the East. The T-Wolves probably aren’t ready to compete at the top of the conference like that, but, I expect them to be much-improved nonetheless. Karl-Anthony Towns already looks like he will be a future MVP, and he should make a bit of a leap towards that this season. Ricky Rubio is still a good point guard for this team, but he could also be used as a trade piece should rookie Kris Dunn emerge as a player deserving of a starting role. Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine should only continue to get better, and the youth and athleticism the Wolves possess should allow Thibs to build the kind of lockdown, aggressive defense that he is known for. In their first year under Thibodeau, I like Minnesota to vault into the playoffs with around 45–47 wins.
Will the Warriors break the wins record again?
No. Despite adding Kevin Freaking Durant (not his actual middle name, but much more exciting than Wayne) to a 73–9 team, Golden State will actually win less games this season.
The Warriors went all-out towards the end of the season to achieve the record last year, and I think they recognize that this really hurt their performance in the playoffs. I think Golden State will decide to rest more this season, even sitting one or more of their big four in multiple games throughout the year, and still win 70 games.
That’s how crazy good I think this team is.
I think this team fits together much too well to deal with the issues that plagued the Heatles and led to a 9–8 record to start their first season together in 2010. The Warriors will get out to a fast start and coast to a somehow-easy 70–12 record and the number 1 overall seed.
What will the Western Conference Playoff standings look like?
- Golden State Warriors
- Los Angeles Clippers
- San Antonio Spurs
- Houston Rockets
- Utah Jazz
- Portland Trail Blazers
- Memphis Grizzlies
- Minnesota Timberwolves
I don’t really see too much changing at the top of the West — with the Warriors remaining there obviously — but I think the Clippers win enough this year to get the 2-seed and home court advantage in the second round. Maybe this is the year Chris Paul can finally get to the conference finals?
I have the Rockets at 4 because, despite losing Dwight Howard, I think Houston is in for a rebound year. The addition of Mike D’Antoni as coach is perfect for the Rockets’ and James Harden’s style of play, and I think now point guard James Harden will be an MVP candidate this year and lead Houston back toward the top of the playoffs.
The Utah Jazz and the Minnesota Timberwolves entering the playoff picture after missing out last season.
Utah was everyone’s pick last year to finally make a push into the playoffs, but injuries and a bad start to the season derailed those hopes. This offseason, the Jazz filled one of their only remaining holes, point guard, by trading for George Hill. Dante Exum will return after missing the entire year last season. Gordon Hayward is expected to miss the first couple of weeks of the season with a finger injury, but I think Utah holds down the fort until his return, finally puts together the playoff-type campaign that everyone has been waiting on the last few years, and makes it all the way up to the 5-seed.
For the Jazz and T-Wolves to make the playoffs, two of last year’s playoff teams will have to miss out, and I think that will be the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Dallas Mavericks.
The Thunder and Russell Westbrook are great, but there are just too many good, playoff-caliber teams in the West for them to make it. They lost a big part of last year’s team not only with the departure of Durant, but also Serge Ibaka. Those two were the big, tall, athletic core of the defense that made the Thunder so special and got a 3–1 lead on the Warriors last year, but now both are gone. Westbrook is probably going to play like a madman this year (when does he not if you think about it), average close to a triple double, and be an MVP candidate, but I think OKC just doesn’t have enough else to make it into the playoffs in the loaded West. I think they finish with 43–44 wins and the 9-seed.
It feels like we say this just about every year with the Mavericks, but I think this is finally the year that Dirk can’t do enough to drag the Mavs into a playoff spot. They’ve proven that to be wrong time and again, but I just don’t see it this year. They lose Chandler Parsons and Zaza (the man needs only one name) and bring in Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut. To tell you the truth, there really isn’t a good reason that Dallas won’t make the playoffs. I think they are still going to be a really good team, but there are just too many slightly better really good teams in the West.
Can anyone in the West prevent Warriors v Cavaliers III?
The Contenders: Spurs, Clippers
The Dark Horses: Rockets, Jazz, Timberwolves
I don’t think any of the Rockets, Jazz, or Timberwolves can actually knock off Golden State, but they match up well (as well as you can against them anyway). Houston is going to have the type of offense that might be able to keep up with the Dubs for stretches, and Utah and Minnesota have the type of size that can exploit the Warriors’ weakness at the center position, but I am pretty much just grasping at straws at this point.
The Spurs, Clippers and Thunder have been the teams over the past couple of years that have given the dubs the most trouble in the West. OKC is obviously now no longer a part of the equation because Kevin Wayne (Freaking) Durant is now on the Warriors. (That being said, Thunder vs. Warriors will still be some of the most exciting games this season just because I want to see Russell Westbrook try to break Wilt Chamberlain’s record and score more than 100).
Anyway, the Spurs and Clippers might be the West’s best chance at knocking off the Warriors, but I just don’t see it happening.
Warriors v Cavs III just seems like an inevitability.
So, with that said…
Who wins the 2016–17 NBA Championship?
It is probably a boring prediction to pick a Warriors-Cavaliers Finals because everyone is saying it, but that’s precisely why I have to pick it. Barring a major injury to LeBron, Steph, or Durant, I just can’t imagine a scenario where the season plays out any other way. Warriors-Cavaliers might be this generation’s Lakers-Celtics.
However, despite it feeling like Los Angeles and Boston met in The Finals during the 80s, the two teams never met in three straight. In fact, if we get Warriors v Cavaliers III this season, it will be the first time in NBA history that the same two teams have met in The Finals for three straight seasons.
The Warriors blew a 3–1 lead in the Finals last year.
This year, they’re back with a vengeance (and Kevin Freaking {Wayne} Durant).
Finals Prediction: Warriors over Cavs in 6
