Belarus, or the “last dictatorship of Europe” has been suffering for many years of low media coverage and was considered as a modern version of the soviet time. This situation has changed for the past 2 years, a split and warring country on the south, a threating brother on the East and a push and pull union on the West have led the current president A.Lukashenko to look for promising exit from this anxious and worrying situation.
Indeed, Belarus is by geographical and political reasons influenced by two main international players. This dualism within the society with on one side a russification of the country through the Russian language as a vector of social rise and openness and through the Orthodox Church and a common historical heritage; and on the other side a shy and early stage attract to Europe, its institutions and values. We will discuss in this essay; how the situation in Ukraine has been a trigger element of change for A. Lukashenko policy towards Europe and Russia; what are the actual capacity of the European union to get closer to Belarus.
Before solving these problematics, an overview of both Belarus-EU and Belarus- Russia relations is needed.
Overview of the Dualism: European Union versus Russia
The close relation between Belarus and Russia is obvious, strong and explicit. This relation is the consequence of a common historical heritage, a same language and a deep economic cooperation. This close partnership could be summarized in the current “Union State of Russia and Belarus” since 1997 that aims to provide greater political, economic and social integration. Indeed, almost up to 20 percent of the GDP of Belarus comes from Russian subsidies. However, since the Russian recession, the Russian willingness to subsidize the Belarus economy has been reduced and had led to a change of A. Lukashenko’s policy towards the West. In addition, it’s relevant to stress on the linguistic and cultural narrowness of the two countries; unlike Ukraine where there are cultural and linguistic differences, in Belarus the Russian language is widely spread through all the territory as the Orthodox Church that represent 80 percent of the population beliefs.
Concerning the relation with the European Union, relations have had their high and low points. The first sign of closer relation came from the early 90’s through the European Union Association Agreement in 1995. Despite this first reconciliation, the relation with the EU has never been close until the end of the 2000’s. The main reason of this weak collaboration explained from the EU is the questionable situation over the democracy and human rights situation in Belarus, especially concerning the use of the death penalty. The EU is asking for “progress in the area of the Electoral Code, freedom of expression, media, freedom of assembly and association”.
Concerning the willingness of the civil society to join the European Union if there is a referendum, the outcome is changing through time:
We notice that 60 percent of the population in 2000 were agreed to join the European union. This large score against “no” decreased during all the 2000’s; the main reason could be the economic growth and development of the Belarus economy, that did not need at that time a closer economic integration with the European Union.
Another possible explanation is the sanctions from the EU towards Belarus that complicated the process to obtain a visa for the Schengen area. To sum up the relation with the EU and Belarus, we can compare this relation with a “dialogue of the deaf”; because A. Lukashenko’s did not show any clear evidence of reforms concerning human rights and democracy based on the EU criteria. We can quote Andrew Wilson; Researcher on Eastern Europe at European Council on Foreign Relations ; in an article in Foreign affairs of March 2014: “ But any shifts toward the EU are going to be a gradual process; Lukashenko is still a dictator, after all, who has little interest in meeting Europe’s democratic standards ».
The Russia-Ukraine Crisis as a trigger event in the relation with neighbours
Saying that the Russian aggression of one of his neighbours have not alarmed A. Lukashenko would be misleading. We notice a change in behaviour in his foreign policy concerning Russia, the new government in Ukraine and the European Union (EU). Indeed, A.Lukashenko had a negative view on the Russian involvement in Crimea and recognized the current government in Kiev. How can we explain this new surprising policy of A.Lukashenko ?
One of the most obvious reason of this change in policy could be that Lukashenko doesn’t want to become a second Viktor Yanukovych. This change in policy should not be considered as a termination in the relation with Russia, that would be a no sense; this change in policy seems to be more related to Lukashenko and its growing fear of Russia; despite structural differences with Ukraine that make the comparison biased. Another key factor that had influenced Lukashenko’s policy is the deteriorating situation of the Russian economy and the decreasing amount of subsidies received by Moscow; so there is a necessity for Lukashenko to find new sources of financing in this uncertain economic and politic environment. Considering these two arguments, it should not be surprising that the president of Belarus wants better relation with the EU, especially concerning possible subsidies or loans for the EU. This desire from Lukashenko did not remain a dead letter; we notice closer ties with the EU, with an increasing number of diplomatic meeting.
This closer relation could be also notice once the EU decided in 2016 to lift the ban against Belarus.
Since the Ukrainian conflict has started, Belarus relations with his neighbours are now entering in an uncertain future. Russian intervention in Ukraine and the global economic downturn have pushed A. Lukashenko to look for new opportunities other than the Russian one. Despite a desire from both Belarus and EU to get closer, a deeper integration (culture, human rights, democratic values, …) seems headed to failure because of the common historical and culture heritage and economic ties that both Belarus and Russia are sharing.
The current excitation of Belarus to redefine his relation with neighbours would therefore appear as temporary than deeply; mainly due to a uncertain economic context and fear about Russia.
