2020–21 NBA Over/Under Results
I’m always surprised to hear just how hard small the margins are to win money gambling on sports. It feels like there are enough options out there that you can find plenty of locks to safely win a few bucks on. Once again I am humbled. Good bettors would love to hit something like 55%. I would have happily taken that percentage based on last seasons over/under predictions.
It was a tumultuous season, played under unique circumstances. There were a LOT of injuries, which may or may not have been related to the tight schedule. It was a revelation to me that the Lakers-Heat Finals was just being played this time last year. But there are no excuses. Tea leaves were misread. Money was lost. And pride was swallowed.
Here are the results:
Eastern Conference
- Isaac: 6 / 15
- Chris: 8 / 15
The Eastern Conference Finals played out like many predicted. Other than that, just about nothing went according to plan. As tough as it is to see yourself perform worse than a coinflip, the East was a volatile place to be up and down the conference.
The Vegas oddsmakers are impressive because they are so good at hitting the nail on the head as to where teams are expected to finish before the season. It’s hard to feel confident picking one way or the other with all 30 teams. Last season only three teams finished within 2 wins of their over/under total in the East. Compare that with the West, where five teams were within 2 wins, with two teams 2.5 wins off. Unsurprisingly, the Knicks had the biggest improvement from expectations, finishing 18.5 games over their expected win total. I even wrote about liking the Knicks before last season, and somehow still lost on the under. Technically speaking, the Rockets underperformed the most, at 18.5 games below. It’s hard to hold that against them since they lost Harden early on. Discounting them, it pains me to share that the Raptors underperformed the most, 15.5 games below their preseason over/under. The Celtics weren’t far behind — 9.5 games under — and teams like the Hawks and Hornets did some of the best outperforming league wide.
In terms of locks (in bold), I stand by my Pacers pick, which went under due to injuries and a variety of turnaround. The only lock we shared was for the Wizards. We remain faithful to Westbrook overs. Admittedly there was no 3rd team I loved for a lock, and I thought Giannis was going to continue to defy expectations heading into last season (Can I say I’m not technically wrong?). Chris did better, going 2/3, squeeeaking by with that Cavaliers under. Our only disagreement on over and under where the partner had also had a lock was the Celtics, and Chris unfortunately bore the weight of yet another disappointing Celtics season.
Western Conference
- Isaac: 7/ 15
- Chris: 11 / 15
Like I said, the West was far more flush than the East, and our predictions clearly showed we were able to capitalize on that consistency. I went 8/15 and am kicking myself for a couple picks. As you can see, Chris went an unbelievable 11/15(!), a highly impressive watermark to be sure.
The two that stand out to me are the Jazz and the Spurs — two consistent teams that I should have predicted would stabilize through the tough season. My Blazers lock proves I typically gravitate towards those types of teams. I have learned from my mistake. I regretted my Mavs pick almost immediately, seeing how much that over relied purely on the shoulders of Doncic. It’s nice we both had the OKC under, but would it have ever been frustrating if you bet the over, and watched the Thunder clearly prove capable of winning 22 games before their all time tank job to end the season. The Kings over may have been the most sneaky in the entire league — they basically stayed the same as the season prior
For locks, I went 2/3. Like I said, I need to pick the Spurs over every year until they prove me wrong. I use that mantra with the Blazers, and it proved correct. As much as I loved Zion the Pels situation was too volatile and too unpredictable to not bet the under. Given LeBron’s age and AD’s injury history I probably should have known better betting the Lakers, but betting against LeBron is rarely a wise move. I stand by it.
Chris also went 2/3. I think both of us would stand by the Warriors pick; and Chris even missed on his lock with the selection. It was over by just a half game. The Warriors were considered one of the highest variance teams heading into last season, and it took a monumental Curry season to just barely surpass the over. Nothing you can do there, and we would never root against Curry anyway. The Rockets under was an excellent choice for lock, given the shape and attitude Harden had coming into last season. The Clippers just surpassed their over as well, but a win is a win.
For interest, here are our disagreements amongst our picks last season. Clearly I need to listen to Chris for gambling advice more, as we hit on some nice ones we were extremely confident in, but missed too many little bets to win any money. I stand by my Haliburton Rookie of the Year pick, and I might just bet OG for DPoY every year until I die. I think from this year on out I am just going to bet Doncic for MVP every year, and trust the payoff in the years it wins will be enough. Same goes for Pat Mahomes.
