Brick by Brick: Chris Paul (Part 1)
Chris Paul doesn’t tend to do things quietly. He’s outspoken on the court, he’s president of the NBA Players Association, and he’s known for setting up thunderous jams (no pun intended). Yet when it comes to his standing in the all-time rankings, he frequently goes overlooked. At different times in his career he’s been labelled as the next big thing, the best point guard in the league, one of the worst chokers ever, one of the unluckiest players ever, washed up, and everything in between. Some of those labels have stuck, some of them haven’t. But who is Chris Paul really? And why is it so tough to figure out where he belongs all-time? Let’s dig into a storied and strange career.
The case for Paul’s greatness is never going to be built on accolades alone — not that Paul doesn’t have them in spades. Going by All-NBA teams, First Team selections, and All-Star appearances, he’s certainly in the top 5 most decorated point guards of the modern era. He was All-NBA 8 times in 9 years, and missed out on at least two more due to injury. He made 4 First Teams during an era when one of the guard spots was penciled in for Kobe before a game was played on the season. And while his 10 All-Star appearances are ‘merely’ average for a player of his ability, he’s still in the top 5 among modern point guards, and could very well tack on one or two more before he hangs it up. His on-paper resume is helped by the fact that few players of his calibre won championships in their prime. Granted, Magic Johnson, Isiah Thomas, and Steph Curry all have multiple rings, but players Paul could reasonably be stacked up against — John Stockton, Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, Gary Payton — either retired ringless or had been reduced to role players by the time they won a championship. Paul’s playoff woes are well-documented (more on that later), but he’s far from the only guy in his class who’s lacking in that department.
It seems strange to say, but Paul often goes overlooked as one of the great players of the 2000s and 2010s. For a run of about 7 years from 2008 to 2014, Paul was unquestionably a top 5 player, behind only some combination of Kobe, LeBron, and Durant in any given year. Even after the emergence of the Curry/Harden generation, Paul remained elite, making 2 more All-NBA teams and missing out on at least 2 more due to injuries. He has just four top-5 MVP finishes, but that resume doesn’t do him justice. Look closer and you’ll see years like Paul’s 2007–08 and 2008–09 seasons, where he twice finished behind Kobe in MVP voting. During that stretch, Paul put up 10 more Win Shares on a team that won fewer games, had a PER 5 points higher, nearly doubled Kobe’s BPM (a measurement of net contributions to a team), and in 2008 was passed over for All-Defensive First Team for Kobe in what can only be described as an insult.
But let’s throw all that out for a moment. Throw out the awards, the accolades, the team success, and just look at what’s on the court. It’s under this microscope that CP3 comes into focus. Even if he wasn’t one of the four or five greatest point guards — and he almost certainly is — he would still be one of the best. Paul is, in every respect, the quintessential point guard. Over Paul’s 10-year peak, from 2007–08 to 2016–17, he averaged 19/4/10 with 2.3 steals, 2.4 turnovers, a 26.5 PER and .587 TS%. It’s a run that equals or beats any point guard you could stack him up against. The figures below represent per 100 possession numbers, removing differences in minutes and pace of play from the equation.
While he compares admirably to his competition in conventional stats, it’s advanced analytics where Paul truly shines, beating the other great point guards by a significant margin in all three major categories.
In addition to having a 10-year run as good as anyone, Paul also quite possibly has the case for the best single season by a point guard in league history, with the possible exception of 2015–16 Steph Curry:
Again, Paul easily wins out going by advanced stats — by an even wider margin than the first comparison — while also equaling his peers in the traditional categories. What’s truly crazy is that, by accolades, this isn’t Paul’s best season. That would be the year before, when he made his first All-NBA First Team and finished 2nd in MVP voting. In 2009, he led the league in assists and steals, put up the first and only 22 PTS/11 AST/2 STL season in NBA history, and took a team starting Hilton Armstrong to the playoffs. For his trouble, he made the All-NBA Second Team, shut out by a fairly standard Kobe season — on the 1st seed Lakers, granted — and a truly great Dwyane Wade season (30/5/7.5, taking a pretty putrid supporting cast with Michael Beasley as the #2 option to 43 wins). He finished a distant 5th in MVP voting, largely due to team success, despite ranking behind only LeBron in a number of key categories.
This is where the dichotomy of Paul comes into focus. He is, objectively, one of the greatest players of the last 20 years. Since the turn of the century, he ranks 4th in Win Shares, 2nd in VORP, 2nd in BPM, and 1st in WS/48 — yes, above LeBron. Yet he’s rarely talked about in the same breath as other truly great players. His teams have played at a 50-win pace or better for the last 9 years… yet he’s never played in an NBA Finals. He just had an All-NBA level season at age 34… yet he is consistently hampered by injuries. So bearing this dichotomy in mind, just who is Chris Paul? Maybe the best place to start is by understanding what kind of a player Paul is, and what makes him truly great.
With the possible exception of Rajon Rondo at his peak, Paul is undoubtedly the best passer of his generation. Even in the current NBA era, where star players have the ball in their hands more than ever, Paul’s playmaking prowess is head and shoulders above the rest. He’s led the league in assist percentage (a measure of how frequently he assisted on teammate’s made baskets) six times, in addition to leading the league in assists per game four times. For a ten-year stretch of his career (2007–08 to 2016–17), Paul averaged over 10 assists per game; in the last 20 years, only 9 other players have averaged 10 assists in a single season. He’s one of just six players to record an assist percentage over 50%, and one of just three — along with Stockton and Nash — to do it multiple times. He’s currently 7th all time in career assists, and even accounting for his declining athleticism and sometimes shaky health, it’s not unreasonable to say that he could finish as high as 3rd.
Much like Stockton before him, Paul isn’t as flashy a passer as a Nash or a Rondo. He is a true floor general, dictating the tempo of the game and controlling every possession. Unlike other players, who seem to favor a certain pace of play, Paul has seen success in both the methodical, steady offences of the Hornets and the uptempo style of the Rockets. His style has remained consistent, however — a steady diet of pick and rolls, using his supreme vision and basketball IQ to make the correct play at any given time. Long before Harden turned P&R decision-making into a science, Paul made it an art form. Whether playing with rim runners like Tyson Chandler and DeAndre Jordan, high post threats like David West and Blake Griffin, or stretch 4s like Peja Stojakovic and PJ Tucker, Paul can turn any big man into a threat simply by virtue of being part of a pick and roll with him. And while he’s not always the most electrifying passer in his own right, his name has become synonymous with the alley-oop.
But despite Paul’s skills as a playmaker, he is woefully under-appreciated as a scorer. As much damage as he can do as a creator on the pick and roll, he is incredibly dynamic using it to create his own shot. His mechanics on the drive are impeccable, allowing him to turn the corner on his roll man and dive to the basket at full speed before his man is ready for it. He’s also a very creative finisher around the hoop, seemingly able to throw anything at the basket and have it go down; look no further than his Game 7 winner vs. the Spurs as proof.
Paul’s offensive toolkit goes much deeper than his moves around the rim, however. His mid-range game is elite, with him drifting into the open court off a screen virtually a guaranteed bucket. His ‘throw it up and it goes in’ range extends up to the free throw line as he regularly nails tough floaters. And while he isn’t an elite 3 point shooter, he’s great on catch-and-shoots and more than comfortable stepping into 3s, especially after creating a mismatch off of a P&R. Even now, a decade past his athletic peak, he can still beat defenders with on-the-fly play-calling, a deceptively simple arsenal of dribble moves, and a robust hesitation and misdirection. His IQ as a passer has been apparent for many years now, but his intelligence and versatility as a scorer has only risen as his physical talents diminish. This level of scoring in addition to his level of playmaking is exceedingly rare; if Paul retired today he would join Oscar Robertson, Magic Johnson, and Isiah Thomas as the only player to average 18 points and 9 assists over the course of their career. He is just 1300 points and 400 assists from becoming the first player in NBA history to join the 20000 point/10000 assist club.
In addition to his offensive effectiveness, Paul is also one of the greatest defensive guards in NBA history. He’s second only to Kobe Bryant for the most All-Defensive Team selections as a guard, tied with legendary defensive guards like Gary Payton, Michael Jordan, Jason Kidd, Dennis Johnson, and Bobby Jones. Despite this, Paul is rarely mentioned as one of very best defensive players in league history. He’s led the league in steals 6 times, and unlike many players who get lots of steals, his ball-thievery doesn’t come at the expense of good defense. The same incredible hands, high IQ, and quick reaction times that make him an elite passer also allow him to read his opponents, allowing him to both pick pockets and intercept passes. He has fantastic lateral quickness that allows him to contain players on the perimeter, especially in isolation.
He can sometimes struggle with pick and roll and post defense due to his size, but more than makes up for it with effort and skill. He’s a tenacious defender who sells out on 50/50 balls and frequently wins hustle plays; it’s apparent just by watching his ferocity on the defensive end that he takes a level of pride in his defence that few superstars do. Advanced stats bear out his defensive acumen as well; he has the most seasons with a defensive BPM over 2 for a guard, and is the only PG in league history to lead the league in that stat. While he has certainly lost a step in recent years, he is still a high level defender, and there’s no question he’s one of the great defensive guards of this century.
Perhaps the most underrated element of Paul’s game is his level of ball control. There’s no other way to put it than to say that Paul is perhaps the least turnover-prone player of all time. Among players to average 9 assists/game in a season, Paul has the 3 best seasons by turnover percentage, and a staggering 9 of the top 12. In 4 separate seasons, he has averaged more than 10 assists per game and under 3 turnovers; every other player in NBA history has done it a combined 6 times, with only Muggsy Bogues achieving the feat more than once. He is the all-time leader in games with 10+ assists and no more than 1 turnover. For a 7-year stretch from 2007–08 to 2013–14, he totaled 1192 steals and just 1149 turnovers. Recording more steals than turnovers is not unheard of for a point guard; to do it while averaging more than 10 assists/game certainly is.
It might seem strange to go on at length about a player’s ability to not give the ball away, but it’s further proof of Paul’s prowess as a pure point guard. The traditional duties of a point guard are four-fold: make plays for your team, initiate offensive action and score yourself when needed, defend the perimeter, and take care of the ball. Paul is perhaps the only one of the great point guards who is elite in all four categories.
So, now that we know why Paul is one of the best to ever play the 1, how do we account for his often unbefitting standing in the all-time rankings? In Part 2, we’ll take a deeper dive into the context surrounding his career, and figure out where he belongs in the all-time rankings.
