Brick by Brick: James Harden (Part 2)

The Bad

“Harden is accurately rated. His numbers are all-time, he raises a team’s floor immensely. When Morey says Harden is the greatest offensive player ever, people disagree, but they don’t gawk. But the playoff woes are too real — there are too many to discount. […] You don’t necessarily have to win the Finals, you just have to get there and play pretty well vs. a presumably other very good team. If you do that people won’t hold it against you.”

• Zach Lowe, a huge Harden fan, on The Book of Basketball Podcast (paraphrased)

As much as I love Harden, I have to agree with Zach; Finals losses aren’t held against players to the same degree as other playoff failures. It happened with Jerry West, Barkley, Malone, Iverson, Drexler (pre-Houston), Dirk (post-2006). Kawhi would have been exempted in a similar way if Toronto had lost in the 2019 Finals. LeBron got this credit in 2007, and his Finals losses are further mitigated by the quality of the teams he faced.

If Harden brought his team to the Finals, there’s no doubt the narrative around him would change — but he hasn’t even been able to do that. And yes, he plays in a historically good conference, and have run into the Warriors four times in five years. But he has twice been the best player on a legit contender, and came up short when his team — perhaps the most superstar-reliant in the league — needed him most. Two other times he has been on pseudo-contenders, and been unable to help his team win, despite the fact that on one occasion his team did manage to win the series.

Harden’s Playoff Woes

As mentioned throughout the methodology article, we don’t just want to look at the surface-level narrative arcs that get built up for players. Instead, we’ll take a closer look at Harden’s playoff resume, and hopefully get to the truth of his postseason performance. Is the criticism deserved? Let’s dig in.

2014–15 Season

We’ll start our journey in 2015, the first year the Rockets could be considered genuine contenders, earning the 2 seed in the West and a tie for the 3rd-best record in basketball. While the Warriors were the clear top team throughout the season, the Rockets were part of a second tier morass that included the Cavaliers, Hawks, Clippers, Grizzlies, and Spurs. Unfortunately, an injury to Patrick Beverley 70 games into the season hampered what was a solid chance of challenging the top teams.

Round 1 — Beat Mavericks (4–1)

Round 2 — Beat Clippers (4–3)

Despite the Rockets eventually winning this series, this is still in the top three black marks on Harden’s playoff resumé. Behind stellar all-around play from the Clippers, the Rockets fell down 3–1 before taking Game 5, leaving them with a chance to go the distance if they could just win Game 6 on the road. Harden had been solid through the first five games, averaging 25 points and 9 assists on characteristically solid shooting. But none of that is remembered in the wake of Game 6. Harden played under 30 minutes, a bizarre figure for one of the league’s superstars playing in an elimination game. After not scoring at all in the 1st quarter, he scored 17 of his 23 points in the 2nd, leaving the Rockets down just 2 at halftime. But he shot just 1/7 in the 3rd quarter, and the Clippers’ lead ballooned to as much as 19.

With Harden sitting on the bench, the Rockets orchestrated an all-time playoff comeback in the 4th quarter, with Josh Smith and Corey Brewer as the unlikely heroes. Harden’s total contribution in the 4th quarter? Subbing in on a free throw, then, after a loose ball foul was committed, subbing back out. He didn’t even play a second of actual game time as the Rockets won by 12. Harden showed out in game 7 with a game high 31 points, along with 7 rebounds and 8 assists. It didn’t matter; the damage was done. The image of Josh Smith looking positively Harden-esque as he hit stepback 3s and made crosscourt passes on the fast break will never fade. For many superstars, a game like Game 6 would be the worst mark on their playoff record. Unfortunately for Harden, it’s not even his worst performance in a must-win Game 6.

Round 3, WCF — Lost to Warriors (4–1)

It sounds silly, but the Rockets had a legit chance in this series — there were some swing moments in all of the first three games that made this closer than people think. But this does not count as a stain on Harden’s record. He averaged 28/8/6 on tremendous shooting, and it didn’t matter; it still would’ve taken a miracle to win.

2015–16 Season

Call it a hangover from last season, call it coming into the season out of shape, call it Khloe Kardashian. Regardless of the reasons, Harden and the Rockets came out of the gate flat, prompting Kevin McHale’s firing in November. After 56 wins in a tough conference, a 1st Team All-NBA appearance, and an MVP runner-up, the Rockets won just 41 games, and Harden fell off the All-NBA team entirely; yes, he should have won over Klay Thompson, but the fact that there was even a discussion shows how horrific this season was for the Rockets.

Round 1 — Lost to Warriors (4–1)

Much like last season, there was little chance for the Rockets to come out on top in this series. The Warriors were better than they were in 2015, and the Rockets were worse. Harden didn’t play up to his regular season numbers, but it was still an acceptable performance for a superstar, especially one facing a truly elite team.

2016-17 Season

The 16–17 season was a bounceback season for Harden and the Rockets in many respects. Mike D’Antoni was brought on as a permanent replacement for McHale, and his trademark uptempo style immediately paid dividends, returning the team to 55+ wins and a #3 seed. Harden delivered one of the greatest statistical seasons in NBA history; unfortunately, his incredible year was overshadowed by Russell Westbrook’s 30 point triple double year, and he finished as All-NBA 1st Team and MVP runner-up for the second time in three seasons.

However, the playoffs were difficult for Harden, and in many ways cemented Harden’s reputation as a perennial playoff disappointment.

Round 1 — Beat Thunder (4–1)

One of the more forgotten series on Harden’s resume, the Rockets took care of business against the Thunder as Harden got some degree of revenge for his lost MVP. Harden averaged 33/6/7 with strong efficiency (helped by over 13 free throw attempts/game), but was overshadowed by Westbrook’s 37/11/11. At this point the narrative that Westbrook’s team was far inferior to Harden’s was already well-established, so the win did little for Harden’s standing around the league.

Round 2 — Lost to Spurs (4–2)

This is the big one. Granted, the Spurs had won 61 games and had the best defense in the league. Granted, Harden had a very strong first 5 games of this series; in two of Houston’s losses, he posted a 43-point game and a 33-point triple double. But it was the latter game, game 5, that came to be a defining black mark on Harden’s legacy.

With the game tied and Houston holding the ball for their final possession of regulation, Harden was called for a push-off on Jonathon Simmons. Although the Spurs failed to score and the game went into overtime, it might have been better for Harden if it hadn’t. Harden had 3 turnovers in 5 minutes of overtime and went 0/3 from the field, including a game-tying buzzer beater attempt that was blocked by a nearly 40 year old Manu Ginobili in iconic fashion. Given the opportunity to put his team up 3–2, Harden thoroughly and unequivocally choked. He followed it up with a truly putrid game 6, with he and the Rockets looking defeated right out of the gate. San Antonio put up a 13–0 run to go up 18 in the second quarter, and never let the game get closer than 15 for the remainder of the game. Harden shot 2/11 for 10 points and had 6 turnovers.

Yes, San Antonio was the superior team. But to have a performance like that in a career-defining game is a stink that does not wash off easily. Unfortunately, this was just the first of a string of tough playoff losses Harden has endured in recent history.

2017-18 Season

17–18 was a major sea change in Harden’s career, as the Rockets made the daring move to acquire an aging Chris Paul from the Clippers. Despite numerous questions about how two ball-dominant stars would play together, the Rockets would demonstrate the equalizing power of talent. With a strong season from Paul and key additions like PJ Tucker, Gerald Green, and the emergence of Clint Capela, the Rockets won 65 games, capturing vital playoff homecourt and earning Harden his first MVP trophy.

Round 1 — Beat Timberwolves (4–1)

Harden was solid in this series, suffering from his characteristic decrease in efficiency but otherwise putting up similar numbers to his regular season form despite being regularly matched up against Jimmy Butler (and, granted, Jeff Teague and Derrick Rose).

Round 2 — Beat Jazz (4–1)

Harden largely continued to roll here, but some cracks began to show. Whether this was evidence of Harden’s playoff struggles or merely the luxury of Chris Paul allowing him to take a backseat is up for debate. Harden was largely outshone by CP3 in this series, most notably in the clinching game 6 when Paul had a vintage 41 point/10 assist performance, while Harden went 7/22 for 18 points. The Jazz were a very tough defensive team, and game-planned extensively for Harden. But one hallmark of greatness is being able to make the shots everyone knows you’re taking. Kobe, for all his faults, was one of the greatest of all time at this, and it’s gone a long way towards cementing his legacy.

Round 3 — Lost to Warriors (4–3)

This is truly a backbreaking loss. Would I be surprised if we looked back at Harden’s career and simply said “well, his best years he just ran into the Warriors”? Absolutely not. But don’t let revisionist history fool you — this Rockets team absolutely, unequivocally, could have beaten the Warriors. I don’t think Harden was completely abominable in this series, despite shooting woes that saw him shoot 24% from 3 for the series. The Rockets as a team famously shot 7/44 from 3 in a decisive Game 7, including an 0/27 stretch lasting nearly two full quarters (Harden shot 2/13).

Granted, the Rockets were missing an injured Chris Paul, no doubt a crushing blow; before the injury, they had the luxury of being able to have a Hall of Fame-calibre point guard on the court at all times. Without him, their lack of depth was exposed — just 6 Rockets players played 20+ minutes in game 7. For a brief stretch, D’Antoni resorted to playing Ryan Anderson at centre — the Rockets were outscored by 12 in the 8 minutes he was on the court. In spite of this, if Harden and his team shoot even decently, they very well could have won the game. Harden wasn’t good, but he wasn’t passive either. There’s no doubt this is a game that keeps you up at night if you’re a Rockets fan.

It also needs to be restated that the 2017–18 iteration of the Cavs, could barely beat a Kyrie and Hayward-less rookie Celtics team in the weakest Conference Final ever, or an even worse Pacers team in the first round. They never stood a chance versus the only team that made the Warriors look like a legitimately bad offensive team at times.

2018–19 Season

The 18–19 season didn’t have much chance of being better than a largely successful 2017–18 campaign. The season was largely notable for Harden’s scoring, as he averaged 36 points per game on his way to his fourth top 2 MVP finish in five seasons. Though Chris Paul dealt with nagging injuries for most of the season, it seemed like the Rockets could enter the playoffs healthy and hopeful they could challenge the Warriors yet again.

Round 1 — Beat Jazz (4–1)

Round 2 — Lost to Warriors (4–2)

Though I wouldn’t necessarily pin this entire series on Harden, he unfortunately didn’t seize the opportunity to erase the stigma rightfully surrounding him. No, this Rockets team probably wasn’t historically great in the way the previous years’ was, but they were also gifted a massive break in the form of Kevin Durant going down in the 3rd quarter of Game 5. The Rockets were only down 3 with more than a full quarter to play, and no Kevin Durant to deal with — despite this, they ended up losing the game by 5. Harden was roundly criticized for not taking a shot attempt for 8 minutes of the 4th quarter; this video, made by Ben Taylor of Thinking Basketball (a channel that I consider to be easily the best analytical basketball content on Youtube) explains why his lack of attempts was not a result of passivity.

At this point, it was all but assumed the Rockets would take Game 6 at home, setting up another pivotal game 7. It’s safe to say that had the Rockets won this series, they would more than likely have prevailed in a Conference Final against the Nuggets or Blazers. Harden was good. He had 35 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, and 4 steals. He shot 6/15 (40%) from 3. But the enduring image of the game is his horrific inbounds pass off a Curry three. Down 2 points with 90 seconds left, it felt like a premature waving of the white flag.

Curry outshone Harden with a legendary 33 point second half, but there’s a chance it could’ve all been for naught. Curry had 0 points in the first half. Curry, who wrestles with his own narrative as a choke artist, could have been the scapegoat. We’ll never know. The Warriors circumvented a Game 7, and subsequently walked through the Conference Finals against the Blazers. What was a good series was, in some ways, erased in a moment. He can say what he wants, but perception is reality. We said we don’t want to pick on players for bad moments, but this does not come down to poor play; rather, it’s Harden’s poor attitude and leadership that plague him in the playoffs. We’ll get to more on that later.

The top five choke jobs of the past decade probably include LeBron in the 2011 Finals, CP3 & Blake Griffin in the aforementioned 2015 series against Houston, and three of Harden’s performances.

I’ll go to my grave saying Curry was injured in 2015–16. But besides that, he played decently, and fortunately for him his sheer presence requires a great amount of attention. Davis hasn’t really had a chance. Giannis didn’t replicate his regular season MVP form in the 2019 ECF, but was still effective. It was more his supporting cast that was completely outplayed by the Raptors’ supporting cast (i.e. Bledsoe vs. VanVleet). Multiple Westbrook series could qualify, but I just don’t think he’s on these guys level. Ditto for Lowry and DeRozan (obviously).

When things get tight in the playoffs and no one wants the ball, the alphas have to step up; that level is what is expected from a top 5, superstar-level player. LeBron, Durant, Kawhi, and PG all ramp up their games in the playoffs. Dwyane Wade was the same in his early Heat years. Chris Paul, who deserves a re-litigation of his own playoff performances, did as well.

The Harden narrative may be slightly overblown, but at the end of the day is probably still deserved. The best players in basketball matter more to their team than the best players in any other sport. This goes doubly for a team with a system as centred around their star as Harden, and he has not delivered when necessary. But we can’t boil his career down to him never making a Finals either. It’s hard to argue with the notion that the winner of the Warriors-Rockets series in 2018 and 2019 would prevail in the Finals once they got past each other. That was the major consensus, and we haven’t seen anything since to disprove that. So, we can’t necessarily fault him for being seeded on the wrong side of the bracket; compare it to Toronto having the misfortune of being matched up with Cleveland because the Cavs somehow fell into the 4th seed.

So while his playoff reputation might be justified, he’s not totally undeserving of some leeway either. Many players are able to wash off the stink of playoff failure with a title win — Kevin Garnett and Dirk Nowitzki are just two recent examples of a single championship undoing years of criticism. Even LeBron majorly reshaped his legacy with a single title win in 2016. Only time will tell if Harden is able to do the same.

Written by Isaac O’Neill with additional editing and contributions by Chris Howson-Jan