Brick by Brick: Pyramid Entries — Jokic and Embiid

The resume:

• 2x MVP (2021, 2022) — 13th back to back winner
• 3x All-NBA First Team (’19, ’21, ‘22)
• 1x All-NBA Second Team (2020)
• 4x All-Star (19–22)

It’s not that hard to imagine a world where we don’t even know Jokic’s name. After being drafted 41st overall in 2014, Jokic didn’t even join the Nuggets until the following year. In his rookie season in 2015–16, Jokic showed flashes of greatness, but had struggle fitting next to Jusuf Nurkic, also drafted in 2014. Fortunately for Denver fans, the Nuggets traded away Nurkic the following season, in 2016–17. We may never know what converstations took place in those Denver offices, but the butterfly effect of the Nuggets keeping Jokic is hard to measure. Nurkic is a good player in his own right, but not long after Jokic was the lead big man, he began to flourish.

In some respects it feels like Jokic is just arriving. The Nuggets have only been legit contenders for the brief period after the Aaron Gordon trade at the 2021 trade deadline before the Jamal Murray injury, and then now heading into this season. Usually there is a steady build, but a blend of mediocre management and injuries have kept the Nuggets out of the mix.

My point is, this will be year 7 of Jokic being a very solid NBA player. year Jokic finished second in Most Improved Player in 16–17, behind Giannis, and ahead of Gobert. In 2017–18, his age 22 season, Jokic even garnered All-NBA buzz, enough to be voted All-NBA Third Team by Zach Lowe and others. In 2018–19, Jokic finished First Team All-NBA, and fourth in MVP voting. It’s crazy to hear that, given his steady improvevement on both ends of the floor. He is now 27. Given that his game is not predicated on athelticism, feels like there is still plenty of room to grow.

Without too much poetic waxing, as usual, let me let Ben Taylor do the talking:

In the context of our most recent top 100 list, 6 years may not feel like a lot, but Jokic’s career already fits in comfortably amongst the quirkiness of every player from #60–100. Objectively 5 strong seasons, four at a First-Team level, and back to back MVP’s to boot. No one can dispute Jokic’s floor raising ability, and his passing and shooting gives no one pause to his ceiling raising abilities either, especially given the brief flash we saw with him flanked by Murray, Gordon, and Porter Jr. Jokic is already in the conversation for top 10 greatest offensive players ever. That’s how special he has been. Though this doesn’t add any inherent merit to his case, doing it in a new, unique way — similar to Steph — adds extra intrigue. It proves how many pathways to greatness there are — that it’s not just a Shaq, Jordan, or LeBron type that can be the best player in the league.

Simmons adheres to the rule that if you’re an MVP winner, you should automatically be put into the Level 3, unless there is a spectacular reason. We have pushed back from that slightly, but generally agree with the essence of the statement, regarding how talented one must be to win MVP. Other than McAdoo and Derrick Rose, every other MVP is in the top 50. (Westbrook is technically #52, but functionally in the tier of top 50 players) Iverson is currently slated at #44, as our final Level 3 player — shut out of Level 4, but still given a minimum respect level given his MVP.

We currently have Jokic pegged at #66— I often use Bernard King (#66) and Bob McAdoo (#67) as measuring sticks. Bernard should probably be moved down, but is a good measuring stick as a high ceiling, short peak guy. Ditto to McAdoo, who won MVP in 1975.

King only has 4 All-Stars. He finished second in MVP at aged 27 behind Bird in 1983–84. He finished 7th in 84–85, but tore his knee, and missed the last 30th games. He missed the entire next season, and was never the same. McAdoo actually had a slightly longer peak, winning in 1974-75, and finishing runner-up behind Kareem in the surrounding seasons. He was an All-Star for 5 years from 1974–1978. He also won the ’82 and ’85 Finals with the Lakers. He was actually a good Sixth Man for the Lakers in the ’82 title run, averaging 16 PPG on 27 MPG. In the Lakers 1985 run, he still averaged 11PPG on 20 MPG. So McAdoo put together a respectable career of 10 or so decent seasons, with a few legitimately good ones. He gets knocked slightly for flourishing during the very weak mid-70s, but it’s right place right time with the Lakers and he did still accomplish it, so credit must be given.

All that said, Jokic’s peak is already much higher, and going to be longer. Although he doesn’t have the playoff accolades, he has performed well in playoff time. The 2020 WCF the Nuggets played is a nice feather in his cap, but slightly fraudulent, given the collapse of the Clippers. With Murray there, they could’ve given the Lakers a real shot.

The next benchmark for me mentally with Jokic is Dwight Howard at #56. Dwight didn’t log an MVP, but played up to MVP level for a couple seasons (2009–11 range). He also has the 2009 Finals to hang his hat on. But he only has 8 All-Stars, with essentially no extra contribution to his historical standing after 2015 (except maybe an ever-so-slight bump with the 2020 Lakers title). Think about Bill Walton at #43, with 1.5 MVP seasons plus a ring. Jokic is not that far behind — as its hard to imagine him slowing down in the next 4 years, even if we are being pessimistic. I personally think he will age like a fine wine, given his skillset. Though Jokic isn’t at Howard yet, it’s evidence of how accomplished he already is. Given his ceiling and untapped potential of the teams he’s lead, there’s no doubt in my mind he’ll comfortably be top 50 in the next few years alongisde Davis, and hopefully knocking on the door, or in, Level 4 (top 30 range), alongside Giannis, in the next few years.

Joel Embiid

Given all that has been said about Jokic, and measured up the players around him, how can we not put Embiid within spitting distance? To get the conversation out of the way — I do think Jokic is better than Embiid. He is more malleable, more dureable, and his offensive game is more efficient. Embiid’s durability is a real knock, but he has proven doubters wrong the past two years. Embiid has also yet to play in a system fully tailored to his style. He deserves some credit statistically for how he’s succeeded in spite of some clunky offensive fit. Joel is a respectable 3-pt shooter. And, he is comfortably one of the 5 or so best defensive big men in the game — something Jokic can’t boast. It is a big something, as there is a real question mark around Jokic’s ability to anchor a defence capable of winning a championship. That question doesn’t exist with Embiid. As long as the right players are around him, he will do enough on both ends of the floor.

Embiid still has plenty of time to win MVP, including this year, when it’s a little more wide open than people realize. The Curry, LeBron, Durant hive is too old and the Jokic and Giannis voters are fairly fatigued. The younger crowd of KAT, Simmons, Tatum, Zion, Morant, Booker and others are either not quite there, or not going to get there. Doncic is the big question mark, but I don’t love the Mavs chances of finishing in the top four in the West.

For my money, Joel is already on the short list of highest peaks to never win MVP. The list goes something like this:

• West and Baylor, Rick Barry, Isiah Thomas, Wade and Paul, Dwight Howard, Anthony Davis, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. These are blue blood guys who definitely had seasons of MVP calibre play and longevity, and things just didn’t break that way for them. Paul George might be a reach here, but his 2018–19 campaign in OKC where he finished 3rd behind Giannis and Harden is comfortably in this tier for me. It’s not unlike Bernard King
• We should mention Bernard King and Jason Kidd here in this 1B tier, and Havlicek and Pippen (although the latter two naturally functioned better as 1Bs/2s on their respective teams). I also think Doncic could probably already be here.
• There are other players who have finished as runner-ups (or close), like Lillard, Griffin, Dominique, Alonzo Mourning, Grant Hill, Webber, Penny, Payton, Ewing, Drexler, David Thompson, Artis Gilmore, and McHale, but were probably never considered true MVP candidates. Lillard is the really classic recent example here.

Measuring Embiid versus this list, if he never wins, I would have no hesitancy slotting him into that first group. That’s how high his 2-way ceiling is.

Still only 28, Embiid has plenty of room for growth, and improvement.

27 / 12/ 3 , with 9 FTs per game. He’s shot 36% from 3 on 3.5 attempts — a number defence’s must respect. Every metric here is impressive. Joel has appeared on the All-NBA Second Team 4 times — unfortunate for him due to the singular centre slot. I do think that should be considered.

I also think Joel deserves respect for his playoff performance. It’s a bit of a misnomer to say Joel himself has never made it past the second round. His Sixers’ 2019 loss to Toronto was a very tough one. That was a conference Finals, if not Finals, calibre team. They should have another one under their belt in 2021, if not for the Ben Simmons collapse. Joel deserves some blame there as well, but every metric points to him being an absolute titan in the box score in playoff plus/minus minutes — for that series, and basically every other one he’s played in. He gets a pass for the 2020 bubble playoffs when they were swept by the Celtics, given Simmons injury, and the laundry list of other extenuating factors.

Let’s look at the resume:

• 2x MVP runner-up (2021, 2022)
• 4x All-NBA Second Team (’18, ’19, ‘21’, ‘22)
• 3x All-Defensive Second Team
• NBA scoring champion (2022)

So where does that leave Embiid? The top end of the list of guys to not win MVP is hallowed ground — putting Embiid on a pace to finish similar to Jokic securely in the top 50. If you’re still gawking, that third list of guys finish no lower than 130 on our long list, and many have careers less impressive than Embiid’s last 5 years. He unquestionably deserves to be here. We threw Embiid into the #86 spot on our recent Pyramid update. Two spots ahead of him is David Thompson — a poor man’s Bernard King, in some respects. I’m comfortable slotting Embiid there for now at #84. That may seem a little wide between him and Jokic, but Jokic did win the MVP’s and got to the conference final. 20 spots isn’t as much as it sounds at this spot.

I’m looking forward to revisiting both centres after this season.

If I had to pick two teams heading into 2022–23, I’d go Warriors-Bucks. I think the Nuggets and Sixers are in the 1B tier — along with the Celtics, Nets, Heat, Suns, and Clippers. Really anyone’s game. 9 contending teams to split hairs with is an unusual amount. I’m sure that number will dwindle quickly. The Suns, Warrios, and Clips all have question marks. The Nuggets can very well be the 1 or 2 teams of that group to properly coalesce.

I do think the Sixers have a particularly good chance this year. Harden and Harris are not too old. Maxey needs to make a mini-leap. Embiid is really the anchor. That might not be something many would have expected the consensus to be, even 5 years ago. Even with the East as competitive as ever, it’s still wide open. The Bulls, Raps, Hawks, and Cavs aren’t ready. The Heat’s ceiling is questionable, the Nets, who knows.

The Celtics have obvious questions as well. As talented as they are, it took good coaching to get them over the top. Who knows what that will look like. Horford will not be the same. And Williams health is a perpetual question mark at this point. The Bucks are really the threat, and a serious one at that. It only takes one injury. And I do believe Embiid can play to the level of Giannis. It’s exciting to think about heading into the season, and I am excited to revisit both of these guys, to see how high much higher they can climb racking up more First Team All-NBA level seasons.