Brick by Brick: 2022–23 Tiers
As we recently profiled Embiid and Jokic’s entrance onto our Top 100, it got me thinking further about the slate of other present players set to make our list one day.
We took the list of names from the CBS Top 100 players heading into the 2022–23 season, plus some other names of players we felt worth mentioning. As I keep repeating — there are so many good players in the league right now, as evidenced by the fact we could easily go 150 deep on players we find of intrigue or having something to offer. Apologies if you’re favourite up-and-comer / longshot to make an All-Star team one day doesn’t get a shoutout (see the Chuma Okeke, Landry Shamet, and Georges Niang subreddits for further outrage). Pretty sure in 100 years no one will notice I forgot to list Goga Bitadze in my power rankings, but who really knows? With zero research involved, realistically, if their not in the top 100 after their rookie season, what are there odds of making the top 100 one day? Anyway, I still threw a bunch of extra undeserving names on for fun.
Let’s go through some tiers of players at different stages of their career, and on our ranking.
The Vets
On the list
- LeBron
- Curry
- Durant
- CP3
- Giannis
- Harden
- Davis
- Westbrook
- Howard
- Jokic
- Klay
- Draymond
- Carmelo
- Embiid
- Paul George
- Lillard
- Butler
Close, but no cigar
The guys who never cracked our top 100, and our likely to ever do so. Barring our estimation of them drastically changing, or the eleventh hour of their career breaking extremely well, it’s unlikely to see them get over the hump. In no order:
- Kevin Love
- Blake Griffin
- Kyle Lowry
- Lamarcus Aldridge
- Al Horford
Don’t pretend to know
- Kyrie
Just on the edge of the list, I have Kyrie currently off due to a shortened amount of span as a genuinely impactful player. As important as shotmaking and championship pedigree is, the impact is often not there, and he has probably never been considered a top 10 player. He could certainly make this list, but for now, he sits on the outside with the no cigar group.
Good but not good enough
- Paul Millsap
- Kemba
On a top 250 list these make it for some mix of accolades and talent. This group is in the good not great category, and had things break pretty well on their respective teams, not unrelated to their presence. And yet, they never really stood a chance of cracking the 100.
Never quite got there
- Danny Green
- Eric Gordon
- Isaiah Thomas
- Dragic
- Brook Lopez
- Serge
- Jeff Green
- DeAndre Jordan
- Lou Will
Tier 7 — Time left
1B — Time left, but hard to see a map
- John Wall
- CJ McCollum
- Hayward
- Capela
Similar to the 1As, these guys topped out at least a couple tiers below the best players in the league (John Wall of course had the highest peak here). Highly talented, but not necessarily on the right teams either, I have a slightly harder time foreseeing major improvements historically to nudge them into a conversation (with the close, but no cigar group at the very least)
1A — Time left
- Beal
- Holiday
- Middleton
- DeRozan
Both Holiday and Middleton have rings, and are in a pretty good spot to contend for another for a few more years, despite their age (32 and 31, respectively). Beal is 29, and even with his bleak situation could be traded to a contender and compete at a high level offensively in the next few years. Coming off what was very possibly a career year at aged 32, DeRozan is still climbing his way past other players in the top 150. He’s basically improved ever year his been in the league, and though I think this year might be high tide to short that trend, I wouldn’t bet against him to keep being great. These guys are on the outside looking in, given their peak tops out around top-15 player, but their is a roadmap, or at least one to be close.
Tier 6 — Unlikely
These players have a few years under their belt, and should look back on their careers in a very fond way for what they have (or will have) accomplished as being top-60 or so in the world in their respective profession for a number of years. These guys never get the credit they deserve.
6D — i.e Respectful of me to mention
- Nance Jr.
- Holmes
- Looney
- Connaughton
- Patty Mills
- Hield
- Adams
- Rozier
- LeVert
- Beasley
- Monte Morris
- Bruce Brown
- Morris twins
- Olynyk
- Reggie Jackson
- Kyle Anderson
- Finney-Smith
- Royce O’Neal
- KCP
6C — i.e Respectful of me to mention these vets
- Batum
- Ingles
- Bojan Bogdanovic
- Joe Harris
- Robert Covington
- Fournier
- JaVale
- Eric Bledsoe
6B/6A — Some combination of respectable players/respectable careers
- Harrison Barnes
- Crowder
- Caruso
- Porzingis
- Portis
- Norm Powell
- Seth Curry
- Vucevic
- D’Angelo Russell
6A
- Sabonis
- Smart
- Jonas Valanciunas
- Tobias
- Wiggins
- FVV
- Randle
- Mike Conley
Tier 5 — Unlikely young-ish players
All players who will likely one day move into one of the three above groups. Highly admirable, and can contribute to winning on high level teams in the right situation, of which their success is often dictated by. There is lots of time left for some these players to develop further, and even into All-Star territory (I see you OG).
I also feel comfortable having seen enough to say they will never be Hall of Fame tier players, even if things go well and they wrap with a championship or 1–2 All-Stars.
5D— Probably not even worth mentioning
Still all fairly young, but all fit the description, with most set to regress into Tier 6 in the next few years.
- Mo Bamba
- Jonathan Isaac
- Tim Hardaway Jr.
- Dort
- Huerter
- Brooks
- Strus
- Martin brothers
- Oubre
5C — Probably not worth mentioning / young players that we are already out on their high-level potential
- Killian Hayes
- Quickly
- Okoro
- Okeke
- Sengun
- Kevin Porter Jr.
- Banton and Flynn
- Tate
- Bagley (RIP)
- Dosunmu
- Jaxson Hayes
5B — Respectable
- Poeltl
- Lonzo
- Brogdon
- Jerami Grant
- John Collins
- Myles Turner
- Aaron Gordon
- Kuzma
- Nurkic
- Cam Johnson
- Bogdan Bogdanovic
- OG
- Trent Jr.
- Brunson
- Wendell Carter Jr.
- Miles Bridges
- Clarkson
- Derrick White
- Josh Hart
5A
A notch above not necessarily for being better, but just being slightly greener that gives me a sliver of hope that they could turn into something more one day. More than likely destined for the above group.
- Hunter
- Simons
- Herb Jones
- Kuminga
- Wood
- Precious
- Suggs
- Cole Anthony
Tier 4 — Prove-it
Moving officially into the more up-and-coming half of this article, it’s a certainty that some of these promising players will simply stagnate/top out. Some will eventually end up in one of the five previous “unlikely” groups. Some will end up in the eventual “still time left.” That’s simply how it works — not every player will progress into the promise they once showed. On the other side of the coin, two players below may finish their careers qualitatively equal, yet we will likely view one in a far better light simply due to winning bias. Success is situational.
Let’s specify the sub groups a little bit.
4D
Not much to say for blue-chipper rooks and sophomores other than we need to see it first. As loterry picks go, you’d like to think that surely one of them will make the Hall of Fame one day, but even still, so much has to go right. A few games into the season, Paolo seems like the surest bet. By the end of this season, we will see some movement into the upper and lower tiers. Perhaps they deserve a tier of their own, but, as the title suggests — they do need to prove it.
- Paolo
- Jabari
- Chet
- Ivey
- Keegan Murray
4C
Dudes mentioned above, such as Turner, Gordon, Isaac, Lonzo, and others, may have all been in this below group at one point. With this group, we remain optimistic for what portends. They need to make an extra leap to remain in any sort of conversation. If they’re lucky, they could crack “close, but no cigar.” They are still talented enough to have a chance.
- Maxey
- Pat Williams
- Barrett
- Bane
- Giddey
- Wiseman — played 40+ games in two season) — I feel comfortable allowing him here for that reason.
4B
This trio has all proved just enough for me to put them in a tier of above the previous, while simulatenously being young enough that I am more excited about their upside than the following group. Poole and Herro have some playoff experience (although both faultered at the tippy-top), and Hali remains the far steadier defensive presence that raises shooting guards’ floor so immensely. Franz doesn’t look the part, but has perhaps the highest ceiling of anyone here.
- Poole
- Herro
- Haliburton
- Franz
4A
The margin between 4C-4A here is razor thin, perhaps enough that it’s unfair to split these hairs. These players are slightly older, and slightly more proven. You could take that as good or bad. They have more defined abilities. They also come with some bigger question marks about long term potential. They still show some high upside, all of whom could bring different offerings to the table, and thus stand out as “currently better.” We could probably separate them further, or even bump them into Tier 3 into a slot.
- Ayton
- Fox
- Sexton
- Robert Williams
- Mikal Bridges
- Jarrett Allen
Tier 3 — Proven commodities, but have question marks
Not talented enough to make this list in any scenario, but if things break right in terms of team success, pure longevity, or if they jump up a level into top 10–15 status, they could get there.
Plenty of the #100–75 on the list probably fell into this group at one point, before they progressed the right way, and landed in good situations. It’s hard to separate this group — they are all highly talented playes who have or are likely to make All-NBA teams at some point.
3C — The What-ifs
- MPJ
- SGA
- Garland
- Jaren Jackson Jr.
- Ball
All four of these players show remarkably high upside, yet pose massive questions. Can Garland be even a decent defender? Can Lamelo put all his gifts together consistently? Can MPJ stay healthy? Can SGA develop given his tenure in Oklahoma purgatory? Will JJJ develop beyond the idea of him that’s been incepted into our brains? I love all these guys, and that’s why they are above Tier 4, but have yet to prove what the rest of Tier 3 has.
3B- The Ifs
Perhaps not as talented as 3C, but more proven. I’m comfortable saying they will never be top-10 players. More reliable, and in the right situation, I do believe these dudes can play 2nd or 3rd fiddle on high level teams. To make the top-100, they’d still have to take mini-leaps into perennial All-Star, and probably All-NBA, status.
- Lavine (27)
- Jaylen Brown (26)
- Ingram (25)
- Dejounte Murray (26)
- Jamal Murray (25)
- Siakam (28)
There is an argument to be made Murray and Siakam could be in 2C. That is more a credit to the other three guys, and how high I am on them.
3A — Who TF knows
Higher pedigree than pretty much all of the previous group, with a case to be made for Tier 2. Both of these guys have shown more promise and more upside than the rest of the group. Yet they concurrently pose some of the most confusing trajectories in the league. Can they win MVPs one day? Maybe. Can all max out as a disappointing 1st overall pick barely ever reaching top-10 status, forever defnined by their failures and basketcased-ness? Definitely. If you pretend to know, you’re either lying or crazy. You’re also crazy if you think their upside in perfect situations isn’t stupidly high.
- KAT (26)
- Simmons (26)
Tier 2 — The betting favourites
2C — If things break right.
- Young (24)
- Mitchell (26)
- Bam (25)
Now that we’re down into the top groups, we can get into the nitty gritty of each player. Bam, Young, and Mitchell have all showed greater flashes of First Team (and greater) potential. They all still have flaws that need to be ironed out. It’s hard to imagine, yet there does have to be ten top-10 guys. They are the most likely to be part of the group that fills out the top ten once the upperclassmen are (finally) out of their extended primes.
They have already suffered some historical maneuvring due to the upperclassmen LeBron, Durant, Curry, CP3, Lillard, Harden, PG, Kawhi, and Butler being so good in their early to mid to late 30s. It remains to be seen if that becomes the norm with scientific advancement, or an abberation (like the early aughts QBs).
Even if this trio maxes out in the PG/Butler/Lillard range of never being a top-5 guy, or in the top-15 range similar to Aldridge/Love/Melo, they can very much find their way onto the top 100.
2B— Good chance of getting there
This tier succeeds what any other doesn’t have — these guys would more than likely be special anywhere they go. It’s more about the teams fitting stuff around them, than them fitting into their teams.
- Victor Wembanyama
- Barnes
- Cade
- Jalen Green
- Edwards
Okay, I’m being slightly facetious by putting Wemby here. But I think he does deserve mentioning, above any of the players in Tier 3, and the slightly lower ceiling guys of 2C. He is that exciting. I still don’t think LeBron tier given his frame, but probably a notch above the Zion/Doncic/Davis tier I’d peg as the next group of top prospects this century.
I love Barnes and Cade. I am slightly lower than most on Barnes’ superstar potential, and higher on Cades’ than most. I think I need this season, in order to put them in the upper echelon tier of the following.
Conversely some may think this is high for Jalen, who I am higher on than just about anybody else. I think his ability to attack the basket, and legitimately special diverse 3-point shooting prowess he has shown thus far, is enough to put him right in this group. Like Young and Morant, who have obviously shown more, its the defensive factor that remains a question. All three of those similar guards still need to take big steps to reach close to Curry levels of O, and will likely never have the frame Curry currently does to hang on D in high leverage situations. But you don’t have to be Steph Curry to win a championship. (You need to be him to win four).
Edwards has a chance to be an all-time personality, alongside the likes of Barkley, Miller, Shaq, and others. Regarding his on court ability, I think him and Zion are in a tier of their own athletically. But I still have questions about his passing ability long term, which I think really restricts the ceiling of a great guard (see “Westbrook”). Unlike the Young/Green/Morant trio, he has a chance to be a Marcus Smart level defender if he decides to care enough.
2A — Best chance
- Zion
- Morant
- Mobley
What needs to be said about Morant and Zion? They have both shown they are on track for MVP level talent, if they can stay healthy. They are on fun, scrappy, seemingly well-managed teams, that are show they can put depth around their superstars. Hopefully they can soon make the jump into true contender/juggernaut status.
I think Mobley has the best chance of the 2021 class to be a top 30 (i.e. Level 4) tier player. He is that exciting defensively. I love his touch, handle, and eye for passing. A decent jumper would of course round out his game perfectly alongside the talented duo of Garland and Mitchell. He has the ability to follow in the footsteps of Ewing/David Robinson/Garnett/Davis as defensive number 1s and offensive number 2s (or 1Bs) on championship teams. The difference being, he is already playing next to high level offensive guards.
Tier 1 — En route
1B — Probably already there
- Gobert
I think if I had to choose one player in the entire league to put on the top 100, not already on it, it would be Rudy Gobert. So why is he not 1A? For the obvious reason that Rudy’s upside is lower than the promise of the following players. More to come on The French Rejection in another article.
1A — Well on their way
- Booker (26)
- Tatum (24)
- Doncic (23)
It will take some sort of injury or wild scenario to see these guys fall out of contention. Tatum and Booker already have Finals appearances as key cogs, and 3 All-Stars a piece. Doncic has three First Team All-NBAs under his belt, and if this season goes well, could potentially already find himself on the 100.
I am likely going to write another article regarding the path these impressive players are on. At this point, it is fun imagining just how high the peaks they can climb are.
I want to once again formally apologize to the families of any semi-relevant NBA players I left off my overly detailed tiers. The massive list of players from Tier 4 and on show just how hard it is to make the top 100, as we know just how few are going to end up on it when their career actually wraps.
There were many different ways that I could’ve separated players, but I utlimately felt good about the cream that rose to the top of Tiers 3–1, and how delineated their trajectories currently feel. I’m happy to be wrong one day, and that is the excitement. Even amongst the 11 players in Tier 2 — aptly named “the betting favourites” — there is little guarantee. We’ll wait and see.
