Context Matters: The History of Most The Improved Player Award
In our Context Matters series we look to analyze NBA history and how we arrived at the state of today’s league. What trends and patterns exist. What historical pecularities influenced history. And how these outcomes can be predictive for future outcomes.
What makes the quirky Most Improved Player Award so much fun is determining what you value as improvement. Some may lean towards G-League players make the leap as consistent 8th men on a roster. Many are often persuaded by the leap from starter to All-Star. The jump from All-Star to All-NBA is another measurement. And although it has never been rewarded with enough votes to win the award, many voters strive to recognize the hallowed jump from All-NBA to MVP level talent (see Giannis in 2019). Or the even more rare MVP season level up to better MVP season (see Curry finishing 4th in 2015–16 where he averaged a record 6.3 PPG more than his previous MVP campaign).
In my memory of the past few NBA seasons, the Most Improved Player Award has shaped up into a fairly predictable race. There is a clear front runner by the 15 game mark of the season. Despite inevitable skeptics, they have remained consistent at that level for the season, and have deservedly gone on to win the award.
The past five winners in reverse are Julius Randle, Brandon Ingram, Pascal Siakam, Victor Oladipo, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis, Oladipo, and Randle all made Second Team All-NBA, with Siakam making it the following year. That seemed like a fairly unbelievable bar to set for an award that was until recently given to bench players evolving into strong starters. So I decided to look back on what minimum standard needs to be attained to win the uniquely fluid award.
In my opinion, there is a fairly significant delineation between Second and Third Team All-NBA. Many “good” All-Stars have attained one of two Third Teams. Many players who’ve reached the Hall of Fame. Second or First Team is almost entirely littered with blue chip no doubt Hall of Famers. For 3 of the past 5 winners to attain such a feat seemed unprecedented. Turns out, it is. In the 31 years prior to Giannis winning in 2017, only five players made All-NBA in their respective years awarded. Two of those were Paul George and Goran Dragic in 2013 and 2014, respectively, reaching the Third Team. That means 5 of the 8 All-NBA nominations in the history of the MIP award took place in the last 10 years.*
- *The other three we’re from Alvin Roberston (‘86), Kevin Johnson (’89), and Tracy McGrady (’01), who all reached Second Team themselves
With the talent explosion in the league, the bar for Most Improved Player has been raised. Developing from a serviceable backup into a serviceable starter is no longer sufficient.
Check out the winners from the past 11 years versus players from the years prior. Recency bias is not the only reason you recognize the more recent names.
The caliber of player awarded does not necessarily mean the MIP has evolved into different criteria, where lottery picks assumed to become excellent at some point are simply handed an award previously meant for journeymen.
There are just so many more good players, who are able to contribute heavy minutes to legitimate conteders, as the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th best player. The line for MIP has shifted accordingly.
The only retired player to win MIP that is currently in the Hall of Fame is Tracy McGrady. Zach Randolph and Jermaine O’Neal could theorically make it one day. And one could argue Danny Granger was on the proper path before injuries cut his career short. Love, George, Butler, and Giannis are all virtual locks for the Hall of Fame. If Oladipo maintained his level of play during his Most Improved season, I’m confident saying he would be too.
The average season of experience for the recipients awarded pre and post-2010 is Year 4. Age has also remained fairly stagnant — age 24/25 is the most common time for players to make a leap. So it is not as if we are now awarding young blue chippers who are making an expected leap. In fact, there is only a small difference in the percentage of lottery picks handed the award pre and post-2010. 6 of the first 8 MIP awards were handed to lottery picks. Yes, Love, Oladipo, and Ingram were blue chippers who won recently. But expectations had evolved from draft day. They made significant jumps after floundering early on in their respective situations. They’re awards represent different recognition than the early years of Alvin Robertson, Kevin Johnson, and Ron Seikaly; who were lottery picks that won the award in their sophomore season. In the past 21 years, only Gilbert Arenas and Monta Ellis — drafted 31st and 40th overall, respectively — have won the award in their sophomore campaign.
The criteria has evolved. Lotto pick sophomores are not winning. CJ McCollum and Kevin Love — who both won in Year 3 — are the closest players of the past decade to fit that mould. Doncic and Zion are two other recent players who garnered votes in their sophomore seasons, but that required transcendent seasons from the prodigious young stars to reach such status.
Pre and post-2010, the average draft pick of players is not significantly different statistically, jumping from an average winner being a former 20th pick to the 16th pick. In the world of the NBA that is not a lot. No one is surprised when a 20th pick turns out to be better than a 16th pick. And very few players outside of the lottery have become consistent All-Star players historically.
Some of the players from the past few years who have finished in the top three for the award but haven’t won include; Draymond. Gobert, Kemba, Giannis, Jokic, Capela, Adebayo, Doncic, Fox, Jerami Grant, and MPJ. All players capable of All-Star status, or one day reaching such heights.
Cherry pick a random season in the 90s, none of the players in contention really sniffed All-Star appearances. More players are developing into high level, impact stars than ever before in today’s game. The total number of All-Star and All-NBA seasons among all pre-2010 MIP recipients combined, is 51. The number of combined appearances amongst the past eleven winners (post-2010), is 49! That’s not including the many more appearances George, Giannis, Randle, Siakam, and Butler, are going to have! Siakam was on the bubble to become an All-Star in his MIP season in 2018–19, ultimately falling short. But are we really going to sit here and Pascal wasn’t both quantitatively and relatively a better player than maybe all eleven 1990s MIP winners who combined for a sum total of one single All-Star and zero All-NBAs?
As I outlined in a previous article, after nominating the obvious locks for the All-Star Game last season, there were arguments for 31 playes for the remaining 8 spots of the game. Players like Fred VanVleet had virtually no chance of making the game in spite of seasons more than worthy within the league 20 years ago.
This article is essentially one more piece of evidence displaying the fact that the league is by far the most robust in talent it has ever been to this point. In any way you slice it.
- At the top — in terms of players capable of leading you at a championship (I could make the case for at least 13 players).
- In the middle — with All-Star talent and the level of most teams starters.
- And at the bottom of the league — for the players in the 200–300 range — who are more than worthy of NBA minutes but are battling for roster spots on bad , middling, and good teams. Mo Wagner, Malachi Flynn, and Juan Toscano-Anderson come to mind.
The quirky Most Improved Player award will continue to be a source of fun debate for NBA fans, and the purpose of this article is to look to some of the trends of voters, while simultaneously appreciating the ever expanding talent of the league. Impossible to measure and ever evolving, this years MIP race is shaping up to be an exciting one.
Stay tuned for Part 2 on MIP front runner Ja Morant’s case for the award, and Part 3 on other eligible candidates.
