Dame versus AI (Part 1)
If you haven’t already, I would recommend at least skimming through our previous piece on how lopsided the Western and Eastern Conference have been over the past 20 years. Once you’ve done that, you’ll realize just how volatile the Western Conference is year in and year out. For the many Raptors and Celtics fans reading, I probably don’t have to tell you how meaningless a high seed in the East can truly be.
Part of the reason for that piece is to provide some background for a comparison between Damian Lillard and Allen Iverson. Some might call this an overreaction to Lillard’s bubble and regular season performance, but I assure you that Dame’s statistics over the past 5-ish seasons have been nothing short of incredible. It should go without saying that the guard play of the past ten years has taken a meteoric leap, and so it’s not entirely fair to compare across the prospective eras. But I know that Dame Lillard is still not held in the same regard Allen Iverson is, nor will he probably ever be at this point. Iverson has cultural value that even someone as influential as Dame Dolla can’t hold a candle to. AI’s stature elevated beyond his height the moment he got into the league.
At a glance, Lillard can’t hold a candle to AI’s accolades either. Iverson is an 11x All-Star, 7x All-NBA Team. Most notably, he won MVP in the 2000–01 season, and led the 76ers to a Finals appearance versus the Lakers. Though these accolades are illustrious, I contend that they are somewhat inflated. In an era of box scores statistics, with media and fans alike captivated by an exciting style of play, Iverson excelled in an extremely weak Eastern Conference, racking up achievements in a way no player of his stature has done before or since. (The only other players 6'2" and under to win an MVP are Steve Nash and Bob Cousy — Chris Paul, Isiah Thomas, and Jerry West were never able to do it).
Damian Lillard, despite his memorable moments, has left Blazers fans wanting more in some capacity. That is not a knock against him, but (most) Blazers fans are aware that given Lillard’s stature, conference, and the way his team is currently constructed, he has no real chance of going on a deep Finals run a la Iverson circa 2001. Iverson wasn’t playing with a bunch of studs, but he had a team around him that allowed him to play like he did, including dictate the entire offense. He was surrounded by bigs Dikembe Mutombo, Theo Ratliff, and point guard Eric Snow, all defensive minded players who made up for his shortcomings on that side of the ball; the 76ers were consistently a top 5 defensive team during their best years with Iverson. As much as I love CJ McCollum, part of me thinks his style is slightly redundant next to Dame. Playing next to Klay Thompson or Jrue Holiday, or even Patrick Beverley, would be more beneficial in a league that requires strong perimeter defenders. CJ’s leap this year proves he not just a good stats bad team guy, but the perimeter defense is a critical piece in a conference littered with apex predator wings.
Iverson performed his own carry job in 2001, no doubt, but his competition was less than impressive compared to a Western Conference that rarely draws you an “easy” opponent. Working off our previous article on team’s regular season success, we can use Team SRS to have a decent understanding of the level of competition Iverson and Lillard faced in the playoffs, respectively. In the years the Sixers were respectable with AI, the average SRS/adjusted point differential of the teams in the Eastern Conference Final ECF was 3.62. The average SRS of a 5 seed in the Western Conference over the same period of time was around 4. Teams such as the Pau Gasol Grizzlies, the Chris Webber Kings, and the Dirk/Nash Mavs could have potentially stumbled into multiple Conference Finals berths if they found themselves on the other side of the bracket.
Now, the Blazers were lucky enough to squeak into the WCF in 2019, with an impressive upset against the Nuggets. But that was in large part due to Rockets injuries that hampered their regular season record, thereby forcing them to face the Warriors in Round 2. But the typical WCF teams are juggernauts. Just look at some of those SRS ratings. It’s hard to articulate how much better 7.46 is than 3.62. In any year, an SRS rating of 6 or more probably means you are a super-legit contender. Those Thunder, Spurs, and Rockets teams are some of the very best to never win a title.
If you think the data is skewing top heavy, take a sample from the top 4 teams in the conferences at the time of AI and Dame instead. Again, 6.21 is extremely impressive. The average SRS of the top 2 seeds in the Eastern Conference over the past 20 years currently sits at 4.43. The average 7 seed in the West since 2001 is 2.4. Some years, 2.7 wouldn’t even get you into the Western Conference playoffs. No one who’s followed basketball over the past two decades would argue that it hasn’t been been lopsided. But the same people will also argue that good players don’t let the lopsidedness affect outcomes. It’s a ‘no excuses’ mentality, if you will. But in the context of legacy, excuses sometimes need to be made. Injuries, game winning shots, teammates, affect how every single player is remembered historically. The lopsidedness has adversely affected the Dame and the Blazers despite being highly respectable year after year. Take a look at the season by season breakdown of AI’s teams and Lillard’s in their prime.
The Blazers SRS under Dame have posted a 2.3 SRS over the past 7 seasons. They have posted 3 seasons with a better SRS than Iverson’s Sixers did during their 2001 season. They posted a better average win percentage too, even though the Sixers played during a very weak stretch.
Four of the five weakest seasons, ranked by top 4 SRS ratings in the conference (over the past 20 years), take place during Iverson’s prime years with the Sixers. Yet he only cracked the conference finals one time. That does not sound like a player who is knocking on the door of the top 40 of our pyramid. And perhaps these statistics show just how good Lillard really is, and that we place too much value on team success. Without looking at any numbers, is it unreasonable to compare Dame to Dominique Wilkins, who is currently ranked #62 on our all-time list? It feels like if Dame had the perfect team around him, he could very much be the best offensive player on a championship team. I’m not necessarily saying Lillard is better than AI, but I’m saying given their respective rankings — with AI at #42 and Dame #97 — we may have to recalibrate that disparity based on what the deeper numbers measuring team success really say.
Stay tuned for part two as we dive into the individual numbers of the two undersized stars.
