Missed the Cut: Vince Carter
Resumé
- 8 x All-Star (2000–2007)
- All-NBA Second Team (2001)
- All-NBA Third Team (2000)
Peak
- 27 pts/ 4 ast / 5 reb per game on 0.551 TS%
- Best player on 47 win team — lost in 2nd round of Eastern playoffs
- Made playoffs 7 times in first 12 seasons
It took a long time for myself and many other Raptors fans to eventually forgive Vince Carter, but that doesn’t mean he still deserves placement on the Top 100 Pyramid. In The Book of Basketball, Carter began at #89, just one spot ahead of Chris Paul. For Chris and I’s collaborative list, Carter now sits at #102. As it stands after Version 1.0, there are 15 players that have passed him (including Chris Paul), along with a few other players who will likely or definitely land above Carter in Version 2.0.
The first two things you’re likely to hear in a discussion about Vince Carter are also what damns him. The first is that he is maybe the greatest dunker ever. The second, is that his electric style was instrumental in growing the popularity of basketball in Canada. Though I firmly agree with both these statements, neither actually indicate how good a player he was. If people are forced to brush off questions regarding hard statistics and accolades, to give way for a strictly poetic defence of the player, it probably means they weren’t that great. Basketball is a beautifully artistic sport, but beauty doesn’t equal impact.
Like many other good-not-great players over the course of NBA history, Vince’s style of play demanded he be the lead player on his team. Unfortunately for Raptors fans, he was never all that close to being good enough to carry that mantle for a contender. Those early aughts Raps teams were not great to begin with, but they probably reached their ceiling, losing in a tight second round matchup. In a regular conference, they’d have to be extremely lucky to make it to a conference final. Yes, they could have beat the Sixers in 2001 and possibly gone to the Finals if Carter makes his jump shot, but that Sixers team is maybe the worst post-1980 Finals team. In fact, I’m not really sure what other team is even in that conversation; maybe the Nets teams that went to the Finals the next two years, which shows how weak the Eastern Conference was at the time.
I think a solid career comparison at this point in time is Jimmy Butler. Butler has two Third Team All-NBAs, and has a fairly similar style of play. They are both good-not-great shooters. Vince obviously has a lot more bounce, but Butler is bigger, and has a better down-low game, blurring the lines between guard and forward better. If Butler is the best player on a team, he similarly caps its ceiling. However, he is able to project better as a second option than Vince due to his elite defence, having made the All-Defensive Second Team four times. The two even share some similarities in their career arcs, with both having infamous and very public exits from their teams.
I’ll bite and agree that Vince’s potential ceiling is probably higher. His Second Team season was in his age 24 season. Traditionally a player’s apex is around 27–29, and various factors contributed to him not reaching that point: injuries (both to himself and teammates), roster construction, and a somewhat outmoded style of play. But we cannot give Carter credit for things he did not do. Either way, they both maxed out for a couple years around a top ten, and comfortably top twelve player. Butler currently has five All-Star berths to Vince’s eight, but it’s reasonable to assume he squeaks out one or two more appearances in his career.
The Butler comparison holds true for playoff resumés as well. Three times Butler has lost in the second round to the eventual Eastern Conference champion (2013 Heat, 2015 Cavs, 2019 Raps). After his Raptors tenure, Vince lost in the second round two more times, during his prime with the Nets. He was also a decent starter on the 2010 Magic team that lost to the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Final (but famously stunk in the actual Finals).
Carter’s redemption arc over the past ten years as the consummate veteran and solid role player has been a fascinating one. But for me, it doesn’t move the needle one sliver up The Pyramid. Short periods of greatness matter more than prolonged goodness, and Vince played a solid but ultimately replaceable role on every team he was on after he left the Nets in 2009. If we remove the emotional resonance of his journeyman story and isolate his first twelve years, they are disappointing. He fell off the map as a Top 20-ish player far quicker than he should have. That’s not an uncommon trait among players on this list, but it still counts against him. I am able to forgive that far more for players in previous eras more prone to injury, drug issues, not understanding the benefits of physical health, etc. But Vince played in the modern era with every tool at his disposal. Like Carmelo, there’s no real excuse for his early demise other than attitude. That is not a bitter Raptors fan holding a grudge — I barely remember his departure. But his Nets stint carried him through the bulk of his prime, and he was never the same player he was on the Raptors. What’s his excuse?
So on closer examination, we might actually still be giving too much credence to Vince’s career. I don’t think anybody, Chris and I included, was really giving serious consideration to Jimmy Butler for The Pyramid, and if you’re arguing one, you have to argue for the other. In our methodology article, I said that I stray away from giving credit to pioneers of the game, and that includes Carter’s jaw dropping style that lead to a generation of Canadian kids falling in love with basketball. He remains at #102, as the second lowest shooting guard, but still firmly behind Connie Hawkins and Gail Goodrich. Both Hawkins and Goodrich played a similar score-first style to Carter; the difference is that Hawkins and Goodrich had higher ceilings, and better excuses for their similarly short primes. It’s hard to make any argument for Carter above them, and as much as we’d like to pay tribute, there’s not much of a case for him in the top 100.
