Fallen stars

How the Mighty Have Fallen

How once rising stars of the democratic party failed to capitalize on would-be campaign turning points in the race to become president of the United States

In a historically large democratic primary field, many of the 2020 candidates have looked for a breakout moment in the hope that it could propel them to the nomination. For a few however, their moment in the spotlight came — and went — too early to make a considerable impact on their campaign. While the primaries are still unfolding, there are already lessons to be drawn. It is worth having a look at the defining moments of those campaigns where once promising candidates lost their grip on their perceived ‘winnability’ and ultimately failed to make their momentum stick. In this four part series, titled fallen stars, I will discuss the stories of Cory Booker, Julian Castro, Beto O’Rourke and Kamala Harris and highlight the moments where they squandered their chance to become the next democratic nominee for president.

Before the 2020 elections, former mayors Cory Booker and Julian Castro were rising stars in the democratic party. The two ivy-league educated politicians followed similar paths: both started in local politics, first as a council member and then as mayor, before turning to the national stage; Booker became a Senator of New Jersey and Castro the Secretary for Housing and Urban Development under President Obama. Both spoke at a democratic national convention, in 2016 and 2012 respectively, and have risen to become two of the most notable leaders of color in the country. As candidates for president however, neither have been able to galvanize enough support to run lasting, viable campaigns. Part of the reason they received insufficient attention in the media is undoubtedly because their stories as educated mayors has been overshadowed by newcomer Pete Buttigieg (known to many simply as Mayor Pete), with some questioning whether it has to do with an entrenched racial bias.

Then there is Beto O’Rourke, the former congressman from Texas who entered the race with perhaps the most hype of any candidate after he almost pulled an upset over Republican incumbent Senator Ted Cruz in the 2018 midterm elections. When O’Rourke announced his intention to run for president in March, donors and prominent campaigners flocked to the campaign propelling him to the front four in the polls instantly. By November, Beto ended his bid for president after failing to translate his national popularity from 2018 into support for the highest office in the land.

For one candidate, a breakout moment did occur during the elections rather than before. With Kamala Harris momentum sprung up as quickly as it faded. During the July debate, Harris, in a well-rehearsed but powerful moment, attacked Joe Biden over his past racial busing policy turning her into a frontrunner overnight. Her fundraising efforts spiked, raising $2 million in 24 hours after the debate. In the national polls she briefly overtook Sanders and Warren. Her fortunes were short-lived however, and in the aftermath of the next debate in August she had plunged by nearly three percentage points — more than any other candidate. Harris dropped out in December.

At this time, only Cory Booker remains in the race, albeit on the fringes and unlikely to find any pathway towards the nomination.