š¦ COVID-š· Spread
May 30 (updated weekly-ish) Our Berksilver series capturing data related to the spread of the virus as it impacts our Berkeley Silverado community.
News: Not good
After three frustrating weeks of a no-visitors rule, families are back at the Silverado. We donāt have many details on the case and most importantly whether the person testing positive had been vaccinated, or if they were one of the people who had the virus before the vaccination.
The latest RCFE report show all āactiveā cases are over across all Silverado facilities in California. Testing continues to monitor for any spread.
Virtual Berksilver Meeting
Our next Virtual Berksilver meeting is JUNE, Wednesday, June 16 at 6PM, now sponsored by Ponga with a paid account. See the Virtual Berksilver Forum to confirm the schedule the link and schedule for this and future meetings
News items
Planning for the āAfter Timesā
- āBreakthroughā cases where infections occur after vaccination do happen. Stay safe, keep your loved one safe, and keep wearing that mask.
Variants & Mutations
We continue to track variations and mutations out of a concern for the implications to public health and prospect of renewed spikes and shutdowns.
CDC Data on the progression of variants
The CDC has published a collection of data thatās fascinating to interactively explore COVID Variants and how the proportion of the population with different variants is changing quickly.
If youāre interested, you might also follow This Week in Virology podcast which has been following the field closely with virologists, clinicians and other experts. However much more transmissible it actually is, the means to protect yourself are the same: Masks, Hand Washing, Social Distancing, etc. Masking after the vaccine continues to be widely supported.
Case Counts
National
The numbers are everywhere, soon we just grow numb to them. While theyāve come down precipitously since the highs in January, case counts in states like Michigan remind us that weāre not out of the woods yet.
New Cases & Deaths per the NYTimes via Google
Unlike trends in late December 2020 that lead to the high spikes in January, the risks today are not spread evenly across the country. See the NYTimes tracker for COVID risk:
For context, the deadly Spanish Flu of 1918 killed 675K Americans and 50M worldwide ā that was before Alexander Flemingās discovery of penicillin in 1928.
COVID-19 Cases in Long-Term Residential Care Facilities (RCFEs)
This report usually includes the details on the Silverado and other facilities in the same category as (regulated under State RCFE regulations under the authority of the CDSS managing dementia care) The report lists cases among residents and staff at RCFEs.
COVID-19 Positive Cases in Adult and Senior Care Facilities Latest report: 5/25: We see the steady decline in active cases across California. The numbers are practically unchanged now week to week with about 100 active cases across all RCFEs in the state. One additional death in the last month.
Case Counts & Silverado Communities
Currently, there are NO reported active cases in Silverado communities across the State of California. Following is detail from the same RCFE report for cases across communities. Note: All cases where a COVID-positive diagnosis was made at the time of death (regardless of whether the individual was in hospice) is counted as a COVID death.
Note: Total cases across Silverado communities can be calculated by adding columns. First two are active cases, second two are cumulative cases, last two are cases of death.
Totals for staff and residents show over 900 cases across Silverado communities in California alone (356 Staff, 546 Residents) and 86 deaths.
Also note that āactiveā cases specifically defined as cases first diagnosed within the last 29 days. An increase in this number tells us that new cases have been found, it staying steady or dropping is an indication that the outbreak is receding. Whether ācurrent activeā cases are contagious is a separate determination made by the local DPH. As devastating as these numbers are, theyāre in line with public health numbers nationally.
Berkeley Data
While still very low compared to what weāve seen, the case rates, average positivity rates and all other metrics have gone up in the last week, despite the improvements statewide in vaccinations.
Alameda County Data
Our Alameda CO COVID Dashboard captures county-wide data. Note that they report data with and without the Berkeley data, or āLocal Health Jurisdiction, LHJ.ā See maps from that dashboard reflecting the āpurple tierā designation thatās covered in the news and how it applies to different regions in Alameda County.
Alameda County Trends:
Source for these charts below: COVIDActNow.org for Alameda County. Data available on every county in the country.
California State-wide Data
Finally, it looks as though the surge is calming in California where the positivity rate had consistently been over 20%, now all are below 10%. Further the vaccination rate in Alameda County nears 50% and Contra Costa is 51%.
The California statewide dashboard tells a similar story.
National COVID Test Data:
Note that published CDC data tends to be a day or so behind published news reports which get the data real time. From the CDC Data Tracker: Cases & Deaths Nationally. New case rates have been on a consistent uptick nationally.
US Data Compared Internationally
Daily Confirmed New Cases (7-day moving average)
Outbreak evolution for the current 10 most affected countries in the world, in a 7-day moving average of new case counts. Note that India is now approaching the US high in January while the US plateaus.
Useful Portals
COVID-19 Testing for Yourself
Have you thought about getting tested for the COVID-19? You can contact your personal doctor, or find details here about PCR and antibody serology testing locally through:
As of December 2020, Abbott has introduced a home COVID test:
FWIW: The Red Cross is now offering antibody serology tests with every blood donation. As an added incentive, your blood donation can save a life too! Blood donations are needed now more than ever because with social distancing precautions theyāve had to space out the donation seats and reduce throughput on testing.
For more on these dashboards, see Berksilver: COVID & Dashboards
