Five Leadership questions for another perspective on the Ukraine-Russia military conflict

Cracked concrete wall background: Russia and Ukraine Flags. Image licensed from iStock by Getty Images.

The human suffering consequent from this avoidable military conflict is horrible, and the propaganda is questionable.

We continue to be notified by assessment, analysis and projections by news channels and social media about the horrific ongoing war from many stakeholders, mainly located far away from the battlegrounds.

In this terrible conflict, we see Ukrainians and Russians paying directly with their lives and livelihood, and we the rest of the world, are spending with further uncertainty and high prices for everything.

A recent Mckinsey article outlines the economic disruptions changing the world. However, the human costs are unfathomable. Like the pandemic, these disruptions were avoidable and rooted in artificial causes.

As a business leader and mentor, having worked in Russia and interacted with its defence and aerospace sector, albeit decades ago, I am intrigued by the selective coverage of the conflict.

Therefore, I thought of sharing a perspective on the situation and a few key questions that are worth asking ourselves as leaders of our businesses, teams, and lives.

What led to the conflict?

A recent article in The Wall Street Journal quoted the Pope saying that NATO may have provoked the conflict. Perhaps it gets us to rethink. Here is another medium article detailing the conflict’s background. It appears that there were several provocations to Russia from NATO leveraging Ukraine leading up to the war, and I could not find convincing counter-arguments.

Leaders made several attempts to resolve the issue through discussions, negotiations, and posturing before the war. Leaders of France and Germany held talks with the Russian President to avoid the conflict. The Presidents of Russia and the USA also discussed this.

It appears that vested interests prevented the sides from reaching any agreement guaranteeing that Ukraine would remain neutral, i.e. not join the NATO military alliance, and the parties pursued the Minsk Agreements, which seemed to trigger the conflict.

From various reports, Ukraine has engaged its armed forces, para-military personnel, foreign advisors, Ukrainian volunteers and citizens, totalling around six hundred thousand in the war. Ukraine is supported by powerful propaganda, weapons, intelligence and training by the US and its NATO allies.

Russia, it appears, has deployed about two hundred thousand soldiers, including alleged mercenaries and its allies and is using its weapon systems.

So the US and NATO supporting Ukraine have about Three times the combatants and about Twenty-Five times the economic and media talent (GDP of US+EU: Russia) engaged in the war with Russia.

Given this backdrop, what are the outcomes of the conflict at the time of writing?

1. Unfortunate casualties. Death of hundreds of innocent civilians, mainly Ukrainians. Combatants from Ukraine and Russia, more from the Ukrainian side, including a few British and American volunteers, have been martyred. Each stakeholder continues providing estimates of adversary combatants killed and or captured.
2. Over 5 Million refugees had to flee Ukraine to neighbouring countries, including Russia. Tragic for Ukraine but could become a demographic dividend for the European countries sheltering refugees. A recent article in The Economist on the demography of migrations mentions that “ the youthful infusion from Ukraine can look like a blessing, although it is the consequence of horror “.
3. World Bank estimates that the GDP contraction of Ukraine will be about 45% and that of Russia by about 11%. The socio-economic damage includes massive hard and soft infrastructure destruction, mostly in Ukrainian territory. These will take decades and debt to rebuild.
4. Ukraine has lost control of hundreds of square kilometres of its territory around Donetsk, Luhansk and several other villages and towns. One finds estimates between 18%-30% of the Ukrainian territory has been lost to Russia already. Peace negotiations have broken down, and discussions are now on territorial independence instead of neutrality.
5. Countries worldwide feel the impact of the rise in energy, agricultural, and commodity prices. Global supply chains are disrupted, and industries like tourism and entertainment struggle even more post-pandemic.

The expected conclusion was perhaps best articulated during the recent India-Germany Inter-Governmental consultations by the Indian PM “…..We believe there will be no winners in this war. All will suffer. We stand by the side of peace. “

As leaders of businesses, teams and our lives, some key questions that I believe are worth asking ourselves for another perspective are:

1. What have the US and NATO leaders, Russia and Ukraine achieved so far, and how would the American or European people benefit from Ukraine joining NATO?
2. Could this conflict have been prevented had the US and NATO proactively encouraged and incentivized a peaceful settlement?
3. The loss of lives is irreplaceable. Given that Crimea and sanctions happened over seven years ago, do we think that US and NATO will be able to restore the lost Ukrainian territory and trust among the people of Ukraine and Russia through more sanctions and weapons support?
4. Did the Ukrainian Leadership make the right choices to confront Russia, declaring the intention to join NATO instead of agreeing to remain neutral like seven non-NATO EU countries and prioritizing economic and social development? How did this stand benefit the Ukrainian people?
5. Would it make more sense for our leaders and us, as global citizens and consumers and creators of media, to encourage and support the Ukrainian and the Russian leadership to pursue unconditional peace instead of providing a platform for adventure by mercenaries and weapons testing?

Some of us could have a completely different point of view on the situation. It is, however, vital that we don’t allow propaganda to weaponize the differences between our neurons into narratives.

We know that asking questions begins to clarify our thoughts, promotes better decision-making, and saves resources and time.

Geo-politics and perseverance eat business strategy for breakfast, and we need to get back to our paths of sustainable economic growth.

I remain optimistic that parties in this conflict will agree to sustainable peace soon. We owe it to our future generations.

I published this article first on Medium in May 2022, and it remains just as relevant today.