INDIAN WELLS
Holger Rune’s Demons Haunt Him in the Desert
Rune’s sloppiness proves once again he’s not ready for the big stages
Watching Holger Rune play tennis can be like watching Liverpool striker Darwin Nunez, an amateur apprentice who picks his moment to ignite delight. At his free-flowing best, Rune can be a formidable opponent — the ultimate weapon — forged to scorch the best tennis players in the world.
Holger Rune arrived at the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, California in somewhat patchy form, searching for some inspiration, some mojo, on a badly needed redemption mission.
The 20-year-old Dane Rune is a modest 11-5 this year but is yet to find that scintillating form from the first quarter of last season that saw him win one ATP title and reach two finals.
Since that trophy in Munich (April 2023), Rune has remained without another title triumph despite reaching five semifinals and two finals in that period. He lost all but one of those seven matches in two sets, hitting at least 2.6 double faults per match sandwiched with an average of about 25 unforced errors.
For context, he is one of four other players in the ATP Top 20 with a leaky habit of giving away points.
Like every player, Rune has his obvious weaknesses such as his silly string of unforced errors, occasional double faults to get broken from 30-0, the backhand reaper down the deuce court, and the teeny-tiny problem of losing his emotions.
The demons.
But he has looked better and in fact, played better since his surprise reunion with former coach Patrick Mouratoglou in February. On American cable network Tennis Channel after a dominating win over Italy's Lorenzo Musetti, Rune said: "It feels great and the chemistry is good."
So has Holger Rune been enjoying a purple patch of form, suffering from the new manager bounce syndrome, or has simply been transfigured from the lame duck he was in Rotterdam?
To figure this out, we have been tracking Rune's performances since his humiliating upset to then World No. 57 Alexander Shevchenko at the Rotterdam Open.
The good news? Rune wasn't wrong.
It feels great!
Crunching data from Tennis Insights which track players performances based on stats by the ATP Tour, the numbers show that Rune has become a thunderstorm under Mouratoglou winning more points ‘in attack,’ long rallies, and most notably, a higher conversion rate.
There might even a suggestion that he's currently...err... playing better than Carlos Alcaraz.
Tennis Insights defines 'in attack' as the attacking opportunities a player creates from receiving low quality shots, their positioning (further up the court), point of contact (not on the stretch), and the opponent's recovery position. Receiving a high quality shot, poor court positioning (standing deep), or stretching to play a ball will make a player be 'in defence.'
Players with higher 'in attack' percentages will win more matches.
Under Mouratoglou, Rune's most improved metric is his 31 percent 'in attack' rate. Shockingly, when serving, Holger Rune's 8.0 shot quality — the quality of his serves, returns, forehands, and backhands — is higher than Carlos Alcaraz's 7.9!
His 'in attack' average of 31 percent might not sound like a lot but Alcaraz, the crown prince of tennis currently struggling for form averages 26 percent. Besides, barely four weeks ago, Rune's previous average of 27 percent cost him games against Shevchenko not to mention Arthur Cazaux, who dismantled him at the Australian Open.
For lack of discipline, Rune has never been a player to win points from long rallies and before his second-alley with Mouratoglou, he won just 48.3 percent of points from 10 or more shots.
Again, this will not set the world on fire but tennis is a game of small margins and his increased shot tolerance of 49.6 percent ensured he made it to the quarterfinals of the Indian Wells — a feat he never achieved previously as he never progressed beyond the round of 32.
Rune's conversion rate, how often he wins a point when attacking, has soared from an initial 68 percent with recently-dismissed Boris Becker to an impressive 73 percent. If he were to continue on this trajectory, he'd surely catch up with Carlos Alcaraz on 75 percent.
Alcaraz might be struggling for form but regardless, Rune edges the Spaniard on percentage of points won from the first serve and hits more average aces of 6.2 to Alcaraz's 4.3 per match.
But there has always been a predictable pattern with Rune: the 20-year-old can never really be trusted.
Of course, as a young player, it's only natural that he will be fatigued as he barely had 24 hours rest before facing Daniil Medvedev in the quarterfinal of the Indian Wells. But the manner in which he lost, getting broken twice immediately after going up a break, it was a recurring cycle that sadly had become his test of titles.
On average since Mouratoglou returned, Rune won 72.8 percent of his first serves. In the first set alone against Medvedev, he mustered just 56 percent, a familiar underperformance by 26 percent capped off with 27 unforced errors.
There was a lull sense of a comeback early in the second set as he quickly broke to go 2-0 up. But in his service game and at that ominous 30-0, he got broken and from a potential 3-0 lead, Medvedev was back in it at 2 - 1.
A bit like Darwin Nunez, teeth were clenched whenever Rune struck the ball, hoping in destitute solitary his shot would hit the intended target.
At the end of the second set which he lost 6-4, Rune had carelessly extended his lead of unforced errors to 40. He failed to serve an ace in the match, made six double faults, and once again, became a spectator in a tournament that had been blown wide open.
While Alcaraz’s struggle in form is one of the most ‘bee-zarre’ things you’ll ever see in tennis, Rune frequently losing to a top 10 opponent isn't.
Since his win over Novak Djokovic at the Italian Open, Rune’s loss to Medvedev at the Indian Wells was his seventh straight loss in as many matches to players seeded in the ATP Top 10. A worrying trend for a player who made his reputation as the poster boy of retribution.
With the crown princes of tennis Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner facing off tonight in a heavy weight clash, this was another chance for Rune to get into a maiden final at the BNP Paribas Open.
He is only 20 but yet, greater things have been achieved at 19. This loss to Medvedev couldn’t help but feel like a missed opportunity to remind the world he is capable of playing on the big stages.
Rune is definitely improving under Mouratoglou but the boss himself would recognize this atrocious record needs to change. He's done it before in Paris, now he's got to do it all over again.
