TIEBREAKS
How Holger Rune's Imperious Tiebreak Winning Records Determine the Outcome of His Matches
There is no tennis player as adept at winning tiebreaks in recent history as Rune. And that includes Novak Djokovic.
Whenever Rafael Nadal struggled in games, he always reminded himself of an eternal lesson from his coach and uncle Toni Nadal.
“Endure, put up with whatever comes your way, learn to overcome weakness and pain, push yourself to breaking point but never cave in,’’ the aging 22-times Grand Slam tournament winner wrote in his autobiography.
“If you don’t learn that lesson, you’ll never succeed as an elite athlete.’’
For Holger Rune, a player inspired by Nadal in his childhood, such lucid moments of serenity have always eluded him in games but somehow, he always finds his way in the most apprehensive of vicinities.
Tiebreaks, like penalty shootouts in football, are one of the most jeopardy-laden moments in tennis. Win, and it could ignite a positive swing in momentum, a landmark victory, a Grand Slam title.
Lose, and it could well be the trigger to a calamitous fall from the summit, a slump too difficult to recover from, the decisive moment a tie was lost.
In 2023, Infosys, the official ATP stats platform, revealed that Rune had one of the best tiebreak records in the ATP Tour, winning 23 of 34 tiebreaks, a prolific record equaling a 67.65 win percentage.
For context, this metric was second only to Novak Djokovic, who won 31 of 38 tiebreaks, with a remarkable win percentage of 81.58.
This season, however, Rune has taken his level in winning tiebreaks to another dimension.
In 2024, Rune boasts a near-impeccable record of 14 wins in 16 tiebreaks, including winning his last 11 in a row to equal John Isner's record previously held in 2019.
If Holger Rune wins his next tiebreak, he will equal Isner's 15-year record of 12 consecutive tiebreak wins set by the American in 2009 at the Bangkok Open.
Of all professional players to feature in at least 10 tiebreaks this season, Rune's win percentage of 87.5 is comfortably the best of any player in the men's singles in 2024.
His closest opponent is the dancing Russian Daniil Medvedev with nine wins out of 11 (win percentage 81.82), albeit playing a significantly lesser number of these duels.
Karen Khachanov completes the Top Three with 10 wins in 13 tiebreaks (win percentage 76.92).
The question therefore is pretty obvious — how does Holger Rune, a mercurial player with an erratic forehand, find the composure to keep winning tiebreaks?
And do they determine the outcome of his matches?
For a start, there are not many active tennis players whose tiebreak records in games directly impact their winning rates or successes in these games than Rune.
Take for example Carlos Alcaraz: last season, the generational Spaniard had a 44.7 percent winning rate when he lost a tiebreak; not great by any stretch of the imagination but one of the best besides Djokovic with an exceptional winning record at 62.5 percent.
In comparison, Rune had a grisly 20 percent winning rate, two wins in 10 matches when he lost a tiebreak across 2023.
Aside from this being one of the worst records available, not even Yannick Hanfmann with the poorest tiebreak record that year (two wins in nine tiebreaks), had a worse winning rate in games having lost a tiebreak (25 percent).
Unsurprisingly, Rune's winning rate is directly intertwined with his success in winning at least one tiebreak in a game. Whenever the Dane wins a tiebreak, there is almost an 80 percent certainty he will go on to win that game.
Last year, he recorded 14 wins in 18 games featuring tiebreaks he prevailed in, with a blistering win percentage of 77.78.
His only losses were against the American Maxime Cressy in Montpellier, one-handed backhander Stan Wawrinka in a heated Indian Wells clash, and Djokovic — once at the Paris Masters and then the ATP Finals.
This season, that trend has continued at a proportionately alarming rate.
He has won 14 out of 16 tiebreaks but the startling metric is that in 11 games in 2024 where Rune has won at least one tiebreak, he has gone on to clinch victory in 10 of those games.
And what's even more surprising? His only loss was against Jannik Sinner, currently the best tennis player, in a modern-day classic at the Monte-Carlo Masters quarterfinal.
Before Rune sacked Patrick Mouratoglou as coach last year, he usually maintained an aggressive position at the baseline; a position that no doubt defined his style of play, and worked in tiebreaks featuring short rallies.
But when Rune faced big-serving opponents like Casper Ruud, Alcaraz, and even Ben Shelton with the blinding serve, it was noteworthy how often he struggled.
Especially with powerful shots forcing him behind the baseline.
For all his brilliance as one of the most versatile players, Rune has never been the patient kind. In 2023, he relied heavily on winning rallies of three to five shots and typically lost more points in rallies extending to 10 shots or more. Little wonder he won just 48.3 percent of those rallies according to Tennis Abstract.
Rune's positive court positioning has been the difference-maker not just in his improved performances this season but in his imperious tiebreak records.
And hats off to Mouratoglou and the coaching team (Mike James and Lars Christensen) for not just spotting this flaw but guiding Rune to stand deep behind the baseline when returning serve.
The fact he has been playing so well (with a few exceptions) since February is a testament to his adaptability and yet another demonstration of how consistent he's become — and can become — while playing with Mouratoglou.
With Rune standing deep behind the baseline to return serves, not just in overall games but in tiebreaks, he has become less susceptible to these powerful shots, establishing himself as one of only five players who lead the ATP Tour as best performers under immense pressure.
Meanwhile, his rally success for 10 or more shots has improved to over 52 percent in 2024.
This is not to say the tactic always works which was evident during the Australian Open.
The electric French wildcard Arthur Cazaux kept pummeling Rune’s feet, prioritizing brutal power and depth over direction. His shots were so powerful they traveled at insane speeds like 220 km/hr (137 mph) and had Rune on toast scrambling all over the court.
There were mitigating factors though that could explain why this happened.
Firstly, Arthur Cazaux was just monstrous and too powerful for Rune. While he smacked laser shots all over the court, Rune was caught between two minds, trying to either step further back from the baseline or inside the court to stem the flurry of too-hot-to-handle pressure he was facing.
It was like a tsunami of attacks.
And then there was the small matter of Boris Becker, his coach at the time, who was quiet throughout the game but later found his voice as a makeshift commentator to criticize Rune’s mental fortitude.
In reality, Rune's loss to Arthur Cazaux was one of those games that left spectators bewildered and stunned, not due to Rune's poor performance but rather because his opponent's combination of power, speed, athleticism, and creativity was simply sublime.
And of course, Rune lost the tiebreak in that game. Déjà vu.
Winning a tiebreak requires focus, intensity, and belief. It demands digging deep, clinging on through sheer mental strength and willpower, overcoming weakness through pain, and pain through lasting durability.
Novak Djokovic, who holds the best tiebreak record in the Open Era of men's professional tennis, describes it as adopting a lockdown mentality.
Rune certainly possesses that and that mentality has seen his tiebreak winning record this season (87.5 percent) already surpass Sinner's from the entirety of last season (58.06 percent).
For Rune, it's almost as if he needs to win a tiebreak mid-game to condition his mind, body, and emotions for the rigors of winning that game. A mind-boggling phenomenon.
It was telling of this Danish prodigy that he defeated Mariano Navone at the ongoing ATP Masters 1000 in Madrid — a match he had no right to win but somehow did after winning the tiebreak in the second set.
And then he contrived to lose his next game against the Dutchman Tallon Griekspoor, a game where he seemed to struggle with the weather conditions but lost regardless having not played a tiebreak.
When his enthusiasm meets his lofty ambitions and the whole world stands still in anticipation, only time will tell just how Holger Rune will win his first Grand Slam title. And if he'll do so having won a tiebreak.
Additional Context: May 31, 2024 — John Isner's tiebreak record of 12 consecutive wins set in 2009 was broken by Francis Tiafoe in 2022. The American Tiafoe won 13 consecutive tiebreaks that year.
Correction: June 22, 2024 — In 2023, Holger Rune recorded two wins in 10 matches (20 percent) when he lost a tiebreak. An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated one win in nine matches (11.11 percent).
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