CANVAS OF CLAY
With Alcaraz Out of the Italian Open, Can Holger Rune Step Up in Rome?
As top players get decimated by injuries, the Italian Open offers the perfect opportunity for a rare chance at silverware.
“I had the luck or whatever you want to call it that (Novak) Djokovic could not play. Everybody has their reasons, but that is the reality.”
These were the words of tennis sensation Carlos Alcaraz to the New York Times, just hours after winning his maiden Grand Slam title at the US Open.
Some within the sport criticized Alcaraz for his comments. The phenomenal Spaniard, still 19 years of age at the time and with more magic to come in Wimbledon, made no attempts to belittle his achievement.
How could he when he became the youngest player since Rafael Nadal in 2005 to win the men's singles Grand Slam title? With that victory at the US Open, Alcaraz also became the youngest player, 19, in ATP history to become World No. 1 — a record that stood for nearly 50 years.
Still, the now-injured, two-time Grand Slam tournament champion, was sincere enough to admit his “reality.”
Djokovic had been barred from traveling by U.S. authorities due to a Covid-19 vaccination row. A knee injury subsequently resulting in retirement had forced Roger Federer to pull out a month before the tournament even kicked off.
And Nadal, well, a shock loss to home-favorite Frances Tiafoe had sparked a bruising reflection — on his time at the US Open and on his playing career.
The tournament had been blown wide open, ready for the taking, and Alcaraz seized his moment to pounce. He knew he was lucky and wasn't bullish to admit the same.
But success in tennis isn't hypothetical; you can only beat what's in front of you. Alcaraz was good enough to be lucky and when the record books penciled that epic tale, there was no trail of how lucky he had been.
The ridiculously talented showman in tennis's present and future had won his first Grand Slam title. That was the story.
In many ways, Holger Rune finds himself in a similar situation to Alcaraz and it is difficult not to spot the melodrama weaving itself together.
The Italian Open, one of nine ATP Masters 1000 events, is admittedly not a Grand Slam but it is one of the most fiercely contested tournaments of the year. World No. 3 Alcaraz has already pulled out with a muscle edema injury in his forearm; a blow for him and even worse for tennis.
Jannik Sinner, the first Italian since 2009 to make all three ATP Masters quarterfinals on clay this season, was forced to withdraw from Madrid with a hip injury. In a post shared on social media, Sinner expressed his disappointment that he will not recover in time and will miss his home tournament.
Meanwhile, the defending champion Daniil Medvedev is doubtful leading into the tournament after suffering a groin injury... in Madrid.
The logical conclusion would be that Djokovic, a successful hunter in Rome with two titles in the last four years, is the biggest winner from these puzzling events. But he was emphatically knocked out (6-2, 4-6, 6-2) in last year's quarterfinals by Rune who was unlucky to lose the final to Medvedev.
Rune lacks the explosiveness of Alcaraz but he is a mercurial and versatile player, capable of imposing his tactical intelligence to beat the best players in the world.
Now 21, he has drawn comparisons to his childhood idol Roger Federer and as a 7-year-old kid, instructed his mom Aneke to replace Nadal’s photos in his bedroom with the Swiss master's.
His whimsical sense of humor can be infuriating and his on-court temperament at this stage of his career is not dissimilar to Djokovic's. The Serb has previously said it feels like looking into the mirror whenever he faces Rune and has described him as the “complete player.”
“Our games and our styles of tennis are quite similar. We both move well, defend well,” the mentality juggernaut Djokovic said ahead of last year's ATP Finals.
“He’s a very complete player, and we both bring a lot of intensity and energy to the court.”
If there's a common thread between Djokovic and Rune, it's that their best performances always come from playing intense, aggressive tennis.
More often than not, they raise their performance levels parallel to their opponents' and perhaps, this could inflict unwholesome changes on Rune's game.
Regardless of the opponent, Djokovic is consistent enough to maintain these incredibly high standards of performance, but the same cannot be said of Rune.
The 21-year-old is the ideal candidate for smacking Top 10 opposition and his bewitching concoction of controlled risk and aggression can easily make a caricature of even the finest players.
However, Rune's performances fluctuate with the intensity of his opponents.
He can struggle to recover this intensity in between matches — especially against lower-ranked players — and although this does not apply to every opponent, he can be frustratingly guilty of stooping to such corresponding mediocre levels.
A worthy explanation of why he's been eliminated from three of his last four ATP tournaments by players ranked outside the Top 20.
With 2024's top players decimated by injuries in Madrid, this year's Italian Open offers the perfect opportunity for a rare chance at silverware. And much-needed ATP ranking points.
A well-rested Djokovic, sunbathing from his home in Monte Carlo, will definitely be the favorite for the highly coveted trophy. A reinvigorated Casper Ruud, still buzzing from wreaking havoc on Stefanos Tsitsipas, will surely be in contention.
Short-fused redhead Andrey Rublev, champion in Madrid with his second ATP title of the season after his initial exploits in Hong Kong, appears to be the most likely to stem a challenge in Rome. Only Lord knows what he'll be up to in the Eternal City.
In theory, Rune has shown in the past that he can raise his level to match the performances of these rivals but there can be no excuse if he exits his fourth tournament in five at the hands of lesser opposition.
Rome demands a champion and to gain any traction ahead of Roland Garros, Rune must showcase his powers of accession and a ruthless nature that applies to all opponents.
The story he would love the record books to tell at the end of this tournament remains at his discretion but like Alcaraz knew at the US Open, this is his reality.
The Italian Open could hold the key to transforming his season but until the final day of celebrations, it remains a free-for-all parade. In the bespoke arena of gladiators, Rune’s target now should be the last man standing.
Will it be a coronation or consolation? Only time will tell but Holger Rune must be good enough to be lucky.
Read more on Holger Rune and our tennis coverage at Beyond The Scoreboard:
There is no tennis player as adept at winning tiebreaks in recent history as Rune. Whenever the Dane wins a tiebreak, there is almost an 80 percent certainty he will go on to win that game.
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