Is a New Roaring Twenties Ahead?
The 1920s were a time of significant social, artistic, and cultural change. It was a period that saw the automobile, the telephone, and the radio become fixtures in the lives of millions. The decade also saw the invention of the traffic light, the bulldozer, and penicillin.
What is interesting to note is that the 1920s followed a decade devastated by the first World War and a worldwide flu epidemic that killed more than 500,000 Americans.
In the midst of the hardship, the pain, and the suffering of 2020 it is hard to see glimmers of hope for a similar renaissance. A health crisis, a movement to remedy systemic inequality, and debilitating economic challenges are all around us. It is difficult to see light at the end of this tunnel.
As Mark Twain once said, “Prediction is difficult — particularly when it involves the future.” However, using the historic precedence of innovation and progress after periods of great hardship, here are the positive changes I see on our horizon:
The Removal of Geographic Work Restrictions
The pandemic has forced many organizations to leave the office and embrace remote work. A byproduct of this decision is the removal of requirements regarding local hiring.
You no longer have to live in or relocate to San Francisco, Seattle, New York, or other major hubs to compete for jobs at certain companies. This will expand opportunities for job seekers who are now able to compete for jobs outside their metro area. It will also enable current employees to move to areas preferable for their personal situations and allow them to access areas where the cost of living is lower.
Beyond the employees, organizations also stand to benefit from a vastly larger applicant pool, which widens the skill sets available and presents valuable opportunities to staff a more diverse workforce.
The Shrinking Commute
The seismic shift to remote work has cut out the commute for many, resulting in more time, less money spent, and environmental benefits for society.
Upwork recently found that workers who once commuted by car, but now work from home, are leading to savings of over $750 million per day. The savings factor in gas, car maintenance and repairs, as well as the costs that driving imposes on society, such as congestion and pollution.
Reducing, or removing the commute, leads to less tragic accidents, more time with family, and opportunities for society to repurpose the massive amount of cityscapes that are dedicated to the commuting worker. Expanded bike lanes, new areas for outdoor dining, and a needed shift towards pedestrian-geared decisions will allow for cleaner, safer, and more enjoyable downtowns.
Before moving on to the next three topics I do want to acknowledge that I am well aware that there are also a multitude of negative externalities due to the impact caused by these first two topics. Most acute is the impact on those that work in downtown districts in hospitality, service, and other sectors. I do not believe this transformation is the end of cities, as other have predicted, instead I believe cities need to innovate and lean into the benefits of reduce congestion.
Communication Innovation
In the 1920s telephones allowed people to converse with distant friends and relatives for the first time. The “zoomifcation” of everything in 2020 was born out of pandemic necessity, but it is allowing us to not simply communicate with, but actually see, family and friends in real-time at a volume never thought possible.
Tele-medicine is rethinking what medical care should look like. Tele-work is rethinking how teams plan, prepare, and execute. Higher education is reckoning with how to deliver immersive learning outside the typical classroom.
Have we figured all this out yet, not even close. Was the first telephone the ideal delivery method? Not even close.
The answering machine didn’t come around until the mid 1930’s. The first phone in a car came in the 1960’s. The first truly mobile phone came in the 1980’s. Necessity is the mother of innovation and innovation is a journey. This new-normal driven by the shift to remote work is going to be the continued catalyst for innovation in the way we communicate and collaborate.
Infrastructure Investment
The suburb boom in the 20th century was in many ways a direct result of the increased ubiquity of automobiles. With the freedom to commute to work by car, it was no longer required to live in the city or near the train station. What followed was an infrastructure boom in these new locations to meet the growing population.
The freedom on the horizon today is also driven by individuals less tied to their physical office location. Many suburban and rural communities have been negatively impacted in recent years by the move to cities, and that potentially could reverse. This would lead to an infrastructure boom in the form of expanded broadband internet access, and increased job opportunities in the fields of construction, hospitality, and other professions.
Gratitude
The roaring twenties followed one of the hardest periods in world history. The current state of the world is also disconcerting: the global health crisis, rising inequality, climate change, racial inequity, are but a few of the high profile challenges we currently face.
I hope, and I believe, that this period has prepared us for an ensuing onslaught of gratitude. Gratitude for the medical professionals who helped us through this time of tragedy. Gratitude for the essential workers who showed up in the face of immeasurable challenge. Gratitude for the teachers and for the parents who did what was necessary in a time of ambiguity and uncertainty.
And finally, when things do return to some semblance of normal, gratitude for the things we took for granted in a pre-COVID world, that we will never take for granted again. The hug of a family member or friend, the interaction with a colleague at a coffee shop, and the numerous casual encounters with complete strangers that brightened our day and will do so again. In the face of a bleak present, I cannot guarantee the next decade will be roaring, but consider me hopeful.
