Biweekly Market Report (2020/04/13~2020/04/26)
-
BTC/USD (BitMEX)
7,036 (04/13) → 6,463 (04/16) → 7,305 (04/19) → 6,762.5 (04/21) → 7,802 (04/23) is a summary of the price movements of Bitcoin futures (BitMEX) for the past two weeks.
All price data were collected on 04/26 22:00
The price of BTC still maintained the trend of the previous two weeks. It belongs to a large consolidation range (as shown in Figure A). With the price rising and falling rapidly, there has been no continuous wave. Those behind trend-following strategies in this period may suffer large losses. However, there is a slower decline in Figure B, and a stronger and sustained rise in Figure C. By following this specific trend during these two periods, you can still net a larger profit. The part at the end of Figure D shows a slight consolidation trend with reduced volatility.
ETH/USD (BitMEX)
148.75 (04/13) → 190.5 (04/19) → 166.4 (04/21) → 200.35 (04/26) is a summary of the price movements of Ethereum futures (BitMEX) for the past two weeks.
All price data were collected on 04/26 22:00
Continuing the big fluctuations in 2020, Ethereum has maintained a high degree of volatility in the past two weeks. Its price has gone up as much as 22%, hitting the price before the 3/12 crash. Unlike Bitcoin, even though the amount of open positions has not changed by much, ETH price has risen or fallen sharply within 2–3 hours many times. However, the price movement of Ethereum is shown to gradually converge. It is very likely that when the volatility converges to a discernable point, there will be a noticeable trend that follow. Investors must pay special attention to position control.
Binance mainstream crypto trend analysis
Mainstream coins in the past two weeks have been largely consolidated in a sharp pull. After the rapid ups and downs from 03/13 to 03/20, a clean upward force breaks through. The largest rise in ETH was as high as 22.18%, while Ripple was at the bottom with a gain of only 1.16%. It can also be observed in Figure 3 that the trend for BNB is loosely correlated with mainstream coins. If you have a quantitative or multi-currency strategy, it is recommended that you include BNB in your portfolio for a smoother equity curve.
The cumulative rate of return (in USDT) for these cryptocurrencies in the last two weeks is as follows:
Market Outlook
While recent trends present continuous rises, prices may soon undergo periods of consolidation (i.e. recent trend of BTC) with reduced volatility. It will be relatively difficult to profit during this period, but since crypto has always been volatile, you can always hold cash first and wait for the opportunity to arrive.
Bincentive’s Selected Strategies
Recently, due to the rising spot prices, strategies that profit from buying and selling spot has performed well. The best performing strategy is “Volatility Correlation Trend”. From the perspective of historical performance in the long market, the strategy has had good profitability without participation in short-selling or entering during consolidation. The current maximum drawdown of this strategy is 2.9%, the reward is 22.8%, and the risk reward ratio is 22.8% / 2.9% = 7.86. In other words, one unit of risk can be exchanged for 7.86 units of reward. Based on current performance, it is a stable and profitable spot strategy.
This article expresses an independent view of Bincentive. Bincentive is not responsible for investment profits and losses, and investors should carefully consider various investment risks.
Bincentive Website : https://www.bincentive.com
LinkedIn : https://www.linkedin.com/company/bincentive
Twitter : https://twitter.com/BincentiveToken
Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/bincentive
Instagram : https://www.instagram.com/bincentive.official
Telegram : https://t.me/bincentive_en
