Biweekly Market Report (2020/09/09~2020/09/22)

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BTC/USD (BitMEX)

9,900 (09/09) → 11,000 (09/16) → high-end consolidation → 10,404 (09/21) is a summary of the price movements of Bitcoin futures (BitMEX) for the past two weeks.

All price data were collected on 09/22 16:00

For the first week, BTC maintained a slow bull pattern. The market plummeted in early September, and it took about five days to consolidate BTC to a level slightly below 10,000. As the topic of Defi slowly warmed up, the price of BTC went from around 9,900 to around 11,000, but it was unable to effectively break through the resistance above 11,000 and continued to consolidate slightly between 10,800 and 11,100.

As the U.S. stock market plummeted on the night of 09/21, the market began to slightly reduce leverage. Legal entities reduced the proportion of all positions at the same time due to rising risks, causing stocks, gold, and Bitcoin to fall. Consequently, BTC fell all the way to 10,400.

Figure 1: BTC/USD (BitMEX) Recent trends (hourly line). Source: AIcoin.

ETH/USD (BitMEX)

335 (09/09) → 394.9 (09/16) → high-end consolidation → 341 (09/21) is a summary of the price movements of Ethereum futures (BitMEX) for the past two weeks.

All price data were collected on 09/22 16:00

The trend of ETH in the past two weeks is similar to that of Bitcoin, but the magnitude is almost x2. Even though the first half of the period is slow, it still increased by about 19%. On 09/21, investors who were short-term bullish on ETH shook off the slow wave of gains in one take.

The short-term volatility of ETH is still much larger than Bitcoin’s. When investors pursue more volatile products, they should also set stop loss limits in the same proportion to avoid excessive short-term losses.

Figure 2: ETH/USDT (BitMEX) Recent trends (hourly line). Source: AIcoin.

Binance mainstream crypto trend analysis

From Figure 3, it can be seen that in the past two weeks, the mainstream currency with the most eye-catching performance was BNB. The worst-performing one was LINK, which began to fall continuously after 09/15, eventually falling by -17.12%. The remaining currencies have hardly any fluctuations in these two weeks, and the final cumulative return rate is also within plus or minus 10%.

The cumulative rate of return (in USDT) for these cryptocurrencies in the last two weeks is as follows:

Table 1: Cumulative rate of return for each cryptocurrency based on USDT

Figure 3: Cumulative rate of return for each cryptocurrency based on USDT

Market Outlook

Among all the mainstream currencies recently, only BNB and LINK have maintained high volatility. Volatility of other currencies have reached a low point. From the perspective of trend tracking, if you were not on BNB and LINK, it would have been difficult to profit in these two weeks. Since the correlation between mainstream currencies has been decreasing, investors should look to include a few more currencies in their portfolio and hedge unsystematic risks.

This article expresses an independent view of Bincentive. Bincentive is not responsible for investment profits and losses, and investors should carefully consider various investment risks.

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