NBA Team of the Decade: The Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors

The story of the National Basketball Association is obviously a long one, one that deserves a great deal of time and attention and thought. As much as I’d love to eventually put my spin on this entire story, for right now I’m only concerned with one specific era … the 2010’s.

I’m taking on the task of writing three pieces about the two teams that will define this one particular era of the NBA, an era which experts have called a “Golden Age” of Basketball. Parts 1 and 2 highlighted what made these two teams so important to the grander story of the NBA. Part 3 will detail what would’ve happened if these two teams ever crossed paths in a seven-game series, because the unfortunate reality is they never did, and they never will. Perhaps more importantly, Part 3 will also evaluate which team will be first remembered when discussing the 2010’s many years from now.

Part 3: Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors

First of all, let’s get this out of the way immediately … there’s no way to prove that anything I’m about to write is correct or incorrect, so if you do decide to read along all the way through, I suggest that you just sit back, relax and try to enjoy this for what it is: An imaginary series of basketball games that could never happen because these two teams did not exist at the same time. More specifically, these two teams did not truly exist at all.

For the sake of this exercise, I’ll be operating under the assumption that every player on each team is a version of themselves that is fully healthy and as close to their peak as they were during these respective runs, because remember, this isn’t 2012–13 Miami Heat vs. 2016–17 Golden State Warriors. This is the Big 3 Era Miami Heat vs. the Hampton’s Five Era Golden State Warriors. For further simplification, we’ll narrow it down to the two seasons each team won their back-to-back NBA Championships.

I wanted to write about these two basketball dynasties because in sports winning is what matters most, and it’s always fun to think about how the best teams from certain eras would fare against the best teams from other eras. Even though the Heat dynasty and Warriors dynasty existed within the same decade, this thought experiment is necessary to try to figure out which team would come out on top. But again, this is all made up. It is nothing but a figment of my imagination and it is meant to be for fun. Now that this stuff is out of the way, let’s get to it.

1. I know we’re supposed to keep an open mind, but is this just inevitable?

You know what I mean by this, right? The assumption here is that when healthy, the Warriors are an unbeatable juggernaut that, as Joe Lacob once put it before Golden State even signed Kevin Durant, were light-years ahead of the rest of the league. This notion that the Dubs were unbeatable sounds great, it’s not a literal assessment of Golden State’s level of dominance. Remember, they lost 39 regular season games in the two regular seasons that preceded their two Championship. They dug themselves a 25-point hole at home in Game 1 of the 2017 Western Conference Finals before Spurs star Kawhi Leonard left with a sprained ankle. They trailed 3–2 in the 2018 Western Conference Finals versus the Houston Rockets, and trailed by double-digits in Game’s 6 and 7 of that series while the Rockets were playing without Chris Paul. Most importantly, the Heat were really fucking good. How’s that for expert analysis?

Of course, it’s possible that if this series did take place, the Warriors could win in a sweep. Perhaps slightly less likely, it’s also a possibility that Miami could sweep Golden State. That’s just the nature of a best of seven series. You just need to be slightly better than your opponent four consecutive times to finish off a series in what looks like convincing fashion, and given how Warriors and the Heat were, it should go without saying that both teams are plenty capable of being slightly better than any team four consecutive times. In all likelihood though, this would be a long and competitive series between two historically great teams.

2. What adjustments would Erik Spoelstra make to Miami’s defensive approach?

For those unfamiliar with the basic intricacies of peak Miami Heat defense, allow me to explain: The Heat’s approach to defense that could easily be considered ultra-aggressive by typical NBA standards. They regularly trapped primary ball-handlers in pick and roll situations and made concerted efforts to force the ball out of the hands of their opponents primary scoring option whenever that player got the ball in whatever his desired spot on the floor was.

This entire scheme was nothing more than the Heat making a calculated bet that they were fast enough, smart enough, and playing hard enough to either force a turnover in this scramble or be able to recover quickly enough not to be killed by the four-on-three opportunity that they willingly gave their opponent. This worked far more often than it rightfully should have in the NBA, but given their personnel, it makes sense why this worked.

It all begins with LeBron James, who despite his more recent defensive issues, was once the best perimeter defender in basketball by a wide margin. If the Heat needed to slow down a perimeter scorer, whether it was Derrick Rose or Kevin Durant, LeBron got the assignment. Otherwise, Erik Spoelstra deployed LeBron as a sort of Free Safety within the Heat defense, tasked with handling the majority of the defensive work on the back end when the Heat conceded these four-on-threes. If LeBron wasn’t LeBron — a mutant athlete who was built like Karl Malone, moved like Bo Jackson, and was a certified basketball genius — this doesn’t work. Fortunately for Spoelstra and the Heat, LeBron was once able to cover ground on a basketball court like nobody’s business. It was like if you asked Roger Federer to play Tennis on a Pickleball Court.

Of course, it’s not like LeBron was propping up a defense full of stiffs. During the Big Three Era, no big man was better equipped to defend the pick and roll than Chris Bosh. Bosh was long-armed, heady and quick enough to hedge hard on ball-handlers, hang with them until his teammate recovered and then hustle back to his man.

Dwyane Wade was a defensive menace when he was healthy, nearly as capable as LeBron was of covering large areas of the court, jumping passing lanes like a defensive back, and taking on big name defensive assignments. Shane Battier and Udonis Haslem drew charges aplenty. Chris “Birdman” Andersen patrolled the paint in more traditional and emphatic fashion. Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole relentlessly chased around opposing jitterbug Point Guards. Even vets like Ray Allen and Mike Miller who were used primarily as floor-spacers competed out there. They were a connected, hard-working, well-coached group that typically benefitted from their aggressiveness.

However …

In back-to-back Finals series, we saw the San Antonio Spurs methodically pick apart Miami’s aggressive scheme with half-court ball movement that was straight out of a basketball coach’s wet dream. The Heat survived (barely) in 2013, but when they met the Spurs again in the 2014 Finals, San Antonio ran a basketball clinic while securing a 4–1 series victory over the Heat. This is a relevant point because aside from those few Spurs teams, no other team this decade has moved the ball with such proficiency and gusto as these Warriors.

Golden State could carve up an elite defense like they were your average Thanksgiving turkey. With so many capable ball-handlers, passers and shooters on the floor co-existing within Steve Kerr’s motion-based scheme, we’re talking about a nearly perfectly constructed offensive basketball team … one that could really do damage to an often overeager Heat defense that had a tendency to give up wide open looks when they did indeed break down.

This isn’t to say that Golden State didn’t ever go through prolonged periods of difficulty scoring the ball or fall victim to arrogance-induced sloppiness on the offensive end. The right sort of opponent could give them trouble and the Heat did have the personnel to give the Warriors occasional fits, but Spoelstra would need to be willing to occasionally dial back the pressure. LeBron likely wouldn’t be able to play that “Free Safety” spot nearly as often since he’s the best man for the job of defending Kevin Durant. But no matter how the Heat decided to play it, every defensive possession would need to conclude with absolutely perfect rotations, and even then the margin for error would virtually non-existent.

You could defend the Warriors without error for 23 seconds and still end up helpless as the shot clock expires. You lose Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson or Kevin Durant for half a second, or even give them a sliver of daylight and you’re dead.

3. What problems does Miami’s offense present to Golden State?

They aren’t much different than the ones that Golden State presents Miami. At their best, Miami was a pass-happy, sharp-shooting goliath that revolutionized basketball by taking the four-out/one-in system that teams like Phoenix and Orlando popularized in the mid-to-late 00’s and turning it into a five-out scheme that Spoelstra would tinker with by plopping a wing on the block. It certainly didn’t hurt that the Heat were fortunate enough to have not one, not two, but three Hall of Famers they could rely on to create their own shot when times got tough.

Although they didn’t launch nearly as many triples as the Warriors did, the Heat were top ten in 3-point percentage in their first three seasons together, and they made the 3rd-most three’s per game during their 2012–13 Championship run. Given the fact that the Dubs would likely be putting up 30 to 35 three’s each game, it’s likely that Miami would see an uptick in attempts too from their average of 22.1 per game in 2012–13.

You aren’t going to beat the Warriors in a three-point contest though, and you can’t score on them consistently with a steady diet of any one thing. Draymond Green is one of the decade’s three best defenders. Andre Iguodala won a Finals MVP for his defensive efforts on LeBron James in 2015. Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant are both All-Defensive Team caliber players and Stephen Curry’s D is actually underrated at this point. The Hampton’s Five line-up will make you work for buckets, but Miami has plenty of ways to score.

The Heat ran a Horns based offense that was particularly difficult to defend because of the positionless brand of offensive basketball they started playing near the tail-end of the 2011–12 season. The Heat spread the floor like no other team in the league, making bigs defend in space and forcing wings to defend in the post. Out of this base offense, the Heat could go into all sorts of actions that were almost never predictable.

If the objective was for LeBron to get a touch on the block, it wasn’t as simple as clearing one side of the floor for their MVP to go to work while four other Heat players stood around watching. The possession would begin with a Horns entry to the elbow, a cross-screen underneath to try to spring LeBron open and all kinds of off the ball action happening while LeBron was processing the defense’s coverage.

If the objective was to end the possession with a Dwyane Wade/Chris Bosh high screen and roll, it wasn’t as simple as Wade dribbling the ball up the court into a pick and roll with Bosh. First we’d get a Chalmers/James pick and roll which turned into a dribble hand-off to Wade, and that in turn would lead to the Wade/Bosh two-man game.

There was never any shortage of window dressing and there were always multiple options. This isn’t a foreign concept, especially since the Warriors offense was built on a lot of the same concepts … a spread floor, off-ball screening, constant player movement, quick decisions, and yes, a shitload of talent.

Miami would likely deviate from their system and hunt for mismatches, as would Golden State. It’s the norm for a high-stakes Playoff series, which is why the pace typically slows in the postseason, and a slower pace favors the Heat.

4. Which version of LeBron would Miami need to win this series?

The simple answer: The best version.

A follow-up question: Which version of LeBron James is the best version?

A more complex answer: The best version of LeBron James is the one the he put on display frequently during Miami’s 27-game winning streak in the Spring of 2013. The version that averaged 27 points, 8 rebounds, 8 assists and 2 steals per game. The version that shot 58 percent from the field, 37 percent from 3-point range and 77 percent from the free throw line. The version that was loose enough to coordinate a locker-room Harlem Shake and treat fans to a pre-game Dunk Contest each night. The version that came as close to mastering the game of basketball as anyone ever has … the version that was simultaneously the most efficient scorer, the best passer, the best athlete, the most versatile defender, and the most ruthless competitor in the league. That version.

LeBron was able to unleash his Queen of the Chessboard routine during that 27-game stretch with Miami because of his surroundings. He was never pigeonholed into one specific role, as he was in Cleveland when the Cavs so often needed him to double as the primary creator and scorer offensively. The Heat didn’t always need him to be their primary scorer. They didn’t always need him to take the biggest defensive assignment. He could be the textbook definition of a Point Guard one game, and then do everything a traditional Power Forward would do the next game.

With that version of LeBron James, this Miami Heat team could beat any team assembled in a best of seven series. That version of LeBron James was arguably the most complete player in NBA history. And yes, that version of LeBron James benefitted from playing with a stellar supporting cast that both enabled him and empowered him to dominate the way he did. He wouldn’t have been able to take the backseat offensively early in games if it weren’t for Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. We would’ve seen far more double-teams in the post if he didn’t have shooters like Ray Allen, Mike Miller, Mario Chalmers and Shane Battier around him. And the Heat wouldn’t have been able to make teams pay for doubling LeBron if those knockdown shooters weren’t shooting high percentages. It was a perfect marriage of superstar player, superb supporting cast and system. So apparently, this is a polygamist marriage.

5. Even with LeBron at his pinnacle, does Golden State just have too much firepower?

That’s the big question here. As we saw in Golden State’s two Finals victories over Cleveland in 2015, 2017 and 2018, LeBron James was the best player in the series, but when the next three best players are Warriors, and when six of the nine best players in the series are Warriors, it doesn’t matter how great that top guy is.

The Warriors moniker over the course of their dynasty has been “Strength in Numbers,” and it’s an appropriate summation of why they’re so damn great. Whether it’s game to game, quarter to quarter, or possession to possession, the Warriors are always going to win the numbers battle. They’ll always have more stars than you, more shooters than you, more ways to score than you and more guys to get defensive stops than you, and because of that they have answers to every question, a counter to every move you make, and an advantage in nearly every facet of the game.

When it was just Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green this was the case too. That trio led the Warriors to their first NBA Title in forty years, and after a summer of hearing that their championship was a fluke, they came out and won 73 goddamn regular season games and came within seconds of winning an NBA Championship.

And then they signed Kevin Durant.

Adding Kevin Durant to the mix involved sacrificing one set of “numbers” — the traditional concept of depth in the NBA — for another. It was a move that some analysts and bloggers were skeptical of, wondering it KD’s arrival would disrupt the Warriors chemistry, or if having to sacrifice rotation players like Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut would be worth it. Imagine their embarrassment.

By signing Durant, the Warriors ensured that as long they benefitted from good health, their top five guys would always be superior to their opponents. In the NBA, that’s all you need. And here’s the really interesting part about all of this … you know when Warriors General Manager Bob Myers may have come to this realization? While watching the Miami Heat in the 2013 NBA Playoffs.

“What you see in that Playoffs is the top six or seven guys basically determining the outcome of every game. You can spend a lot of time trying to fill out the rest of the roster in the perfect manner, but if your top five guys can’t get the job done, it almost doesn’t matter.”

That’s a quote from Myers to NBA writer Zach Lowe, a nugget within a piece Lowe wrote for Grantland about how and why the Miami Heat repeated as champions. Perhaps indirectly, that 2012–13 Miami Heat team is why the Warriors would win this hypothetical series over six years later.

6. So how does the series play out?

By virtue of having a better winning percentage in their two Championship seasons than Miami did during theirs, Golden State would have home court advantage in this series. Honestly, I’m not so sure homecourt advantage means much in this series anyway. Both of these teams are capable of winning games on the road, and who has that fourth home game shouldn’t make a difference in the pick.

I think Miami would successfully be able to slow the pace. I think they’d find ways to give Golden State problems — they’d be able to score in the halfcourt, Spoelstra would lean on line-ups that could exploit the Warriors defensive rebounding issues, they’d make the Dubs offense work to score — but ultimately the numbers game catches up with the Heat.

In six competitive games, I’ll take the Warriors over the Heat. The Finals MVP Trophy would be awarded to Stephen Curry, because goddammit he deserves one.

Bonus Question: Which team will be first remembered when discussing the 2010’s many years from now?

The correct answer is the Miami Heat, and it’s for the exact reason I laid out four paragraphs ago. If Pat Riley doesn’t toss his rings on the table and entice LeBron James and Chris Bosh to join Dwyane Wade in Miami, I’m certain that Kevin Durant does not join the Warriors six years later. There’s virtually no path to it.

The Heat are the defining sports team of the 2010’s, and they are on the shortlist of the most important teams in professional sports history. They ushered in the era of player empowerment and achieved an incredible amount of success and notoriety in only a four-year span. They were not only the first villain of the social media era, they were the first team covered on a 24/7 basis. They were responsible for hilarious memes, jaw-dropping highlight reels, and some of the most memorable on-and-off-the-court moments in NBA history. They built a resume unlike that of any other team this decade, so therefore it’s safe to say that we’ll never forget about The Heatles.