‘This is Us’ Thoughts and Predictions
Dalton Baggett: As we get ready to enter the back half of season 4 of This is Us, Sonny and I thought it would be fun, or heartbreaking, to do some commentary and predictions about what is to come for the rest of the series. Seriously though, there aren’t a lot of things that can do to me emotionally what This is Us does on a week to week basis, and I think we’re gearing up for something big in season 4. Sure, things like sad NPR stories make me tear up on my way to work almost every day, but I don’t think anything fiction other than This is Us has ever had me laying on my couch with literal racking sobs. Specifically season 2 episode 14 and even more specifically Kevin’s monologue to his dad at the tree from that episode. It’s not even objectively Kevin’s most heartbreaking speech, but for some reason it just got to me and I was a damn mess by the end of it. I don’t really have any underlying daddy issues either, so I don’t know why it hit me so hard. Sonny, I’m going to head to a therapist real quick to figure some stuff out. Any thoughts on how This is Us is going to rip our hearts out and curb stomp them into a pulpy mess going forward this season?
Sonny Giuliano: Oh Dalton, if I have anything in this world, it’s thoughts about This Is Us. On a minute to minute basis, there are few things I’m thinking about more often than the inner-workings of This Is Us; how talented series creator/showrunner Dan Fogelman and his writing staff are, how potentially even more talented series composer Siddhartha Kholsa is, how ridiculously deep AND talented the group of actors and actresses are, and perhaps most frequently, I think about just how this beautiful, brilliant and brutal story is going to play out over what we can assume will be the final two and a half seasons of the show.
Dan Fogelman has hinted that his initial plan for This Is Us was a six-season arc, and after the Season 3 finale, he tweeted this, which only seemed to re-affirm the idea that This Is Us would conclude after Season 6:
https://twitter.com/Dan_Fogelman/status/1113260839996338181
So, Dalton, I’ll leave it up to you … I have predictions aplenty, but some are rooted in sadness, and some are generally happier. Some are straight-forward and easy to spot, others involve me becoming a bit of a conspiracy theorist. Where would you like to begin? And also, I’m curious to know what you think as well! Even though within our Facebook messenger thread, you’ve acknowledged that I “think about the show more” than you do, I’m sure you put on the metaphorical tin foil hat as you watch through your tears on Tuesday nights.
DB: Ok, a couple paragraphs into this piece probably isn’t the best time to tell you that I actually don’t theorize about This is Us too much as I’m watching it. I prefer to let that glorious Siddhartha Kholsa score you mentioned float me along blissfully unaware of the waves of emotion that could crash over me at any moment. Trying to guess “what’s coming next” tends to stress me out, and I don’t need any more stress when I’m watching the Pearson’s. However, if you do want me to throw on a tin foil hat just ask me about my theory that LeBron can’t palm a basketball.
All of that being said, it’s a testament to our partnership that I’m willing to access the investigative part of my brain and allow myself to do a little forward thinking about This is Us.
I’d like to start with some recent comments made by Sterling K. Brown about the upcoming mid-season premiere. “‘They’re not ready.’ The audience is going to collectively gasp when they see our premiere for the second half of the season. That’s all I can really say.” He also said that “…the end of 4×10 had me screaming at the TV out loud.”
All of that bodes for anything but a chill Tuesday night for the Pearson’s and more importantly for me and my emotional well-being. Each different promo video they put out seems to hint at different storyline containing the “unforgettable moment” so we don’t have too much to go on. My guess would be we find out the reason Kevin and Randall aren’t talking. It obviously has something to do with Rebecca, but one of them must do something pretty dumb if it had Sterling screaming at the TV despite already knowing what happens.
What do you think, Sonny? Any thoughts on what the “unforgettable moment” is going to be? Am I missing anything? Feel free to make me feel as stupid as possible whenever you want in this piece.
SG: Well Dalton, even if you aren’t putting on the tin-foil hat as you are watching This Is Us¸ I doubt very much that you don’t theorize at all throughout the week between episodes. That’s part of the fun of the This Is Us viewing experience … the fact that this show isn’t one that can or should be binge watched.
And even though I doubt that Dan Fogelman and the writing staff of TIU want their show to turn into something like this generations equivalent of Lost in terms of theorizing and speculating what comes next and how the show will eventually end, they are obviously aware of the fact that leaving a trail of breadcrumbs for their viewers is smart business. I’ll be honest, I was initially very concerned about what This Is Us would become once we actually saw the fire that burned down the Pearson house and the death of Jack Pearson. That “How does it happen?” dread/anticipation added an element of suspense and sadness and beauty to every single encounter leading up to the moment we saw the Pearson family’s home and world come crashing down on the post-Super Bowl episode in Season 2.
But This Is Us has since come back with new characters, new drama, and for lack of a better term, new mysteries to keep us hooked. In fact, there are so many “What’s going to happen with this” storylines right now, you could probably set odds on the “Unforgettable Moment” that NBC is teasing. If Vegas could lay odds for what this “Unforgettable Moment” was, I think these would be the three favorites.
3/1 — The Kevin/Randall confrontation that you alluded to is likely the odds-on favorite, but that actually feels a little too predictable AND a little premature in my opinion. I think that’s an end-of-the season development.
9/2 — It certainly appears as if Kate and Toby are headed towards hard times, so it’s possible that this “Unforgettable Moment” is a verbal throwdown between the two. The events at the end of the mid-season finale suggest as much, and there is skepticism as to whether they are together at the time of our seldom-seen Flash Forward scene with the Pearson family beginning to gather around Rebecca on what we assume is her death bed.
6/1 — Speaking of which, we could get more clarity on what is happening during what is likely the end-of-series Flash Forward scene I just mentioned. Perhaps we see the arrival of Kevin and whoever the Mother of his son is — the presumed Mother is Cassidy, Kevin’s war veteran love interest over the first half of Season 4. Based on the Flash Forward at the end of the mid-season finale, we know his wife is pregnant by August 31st, 2020, so a meeting or revealing of who this mystery woman is needs to happen pretty soon.
The crazy thing is, This Is Us is so damn good, they can take any mini-moment showed in any of those teaser promos and make it the “Unforgettable Moment.” Maybe it’s something with Malik and Deja. Maybe we learn more about Rebecca’s declining health. Maybe we flash back to the beginning of Jack and Rebecca’s relationship back in the early 70’s. Or maybe it has to do with whatever the hell John Legend is doing on This Is Us.
Ya know what though Dalton? I think Fogelman and Co. throw us a curveball here. I’m taking a longer-shot wager on an event that would take place in the late-90’s within the Pearson family storyline … and no, I’m not talking about the moment that we are bound to see eventually, which will absolutely brutalize each and every This Is Us fan — more on this later if you aren’t aware of the moment I’m suggesting.
Any idea what moment I could be hinting at? I’ll give you a clue: it could easily intercut with any Kate and Toby confrontation scene.
DB: See this is why you’re the expert, because I have zero clue what either of the moments you’re referring to could be. I know that’s not a very fun answer but it’s the truth! You’ve started the “make me look as stupid as possible” stuff early, and I should’ve been more prepared for it. So I’ll politely wait for you to enlighten me with all of your advanced knowledge about what 90’s era secrets you have about what’s coming for the Pearson family.
In the meantime I’d like to refute something you said about Kevin and his future. While I’m not confident about a lot of things involving the future of this show, I can 100% absolutely, unequivocally, and any other synonym you can think of, guarantee that Cassidy is not the mother of Kevin’s future child. I would bet my life savings on it right now faster than I would the Antonio Brown/Logan Paul boxing match.
First off, it would be a waste of the entire first half of season 4 for Cassidy. She spent the entire time trying to make amends with her husband and get her family back. In the pivotal diner scene in episode 8 she was either going to be invited to sit down, or not, deciding whether she had a chance at a happy ending with her family, or not. This to me felt like a clear representation of the Kevin or her husband predicament, and she got the invite to sit down, sorry Kev.
My next argument against Kevassidy? Kassidy? Cevin? Cassin? Is that IF Cassidy did get pregnant from their one time fling in the RV, that would probably be the reason it didn’t work out with her husband, right? I just don’t see the writers giving a Kevin a storyline where he finally finds someone to have children with but he was the second choice and only because the condom broke. That wouldn’t feel very TIU to me.
I know there isn’t a lot of time for him to meet someone new and develop some fairy tale love story, so my guess would be it has to be Sophie in the end. Wait, that doesn’t feel right in my gut. I’ll just say that I don’t know who it’s going to be, but I’m confident in who it’s not.
Wow… I apparently only care about Kevin on this show.
SG: Though I’m prepared to make a rebuttal on the point of Kevin and Cassidy, I’ll step aside for now simply because you’re arguing for Sophie being Kevin’s eventual wife and that feels very full circle, which feels very This Is Us. I do think you’re sleeping on Cassidy though, simply because the timeline would make sense. Cassidy and Kevin have a pre-existing relationship that’s still pretty fresh. Even though Sophie does feel like The One for Kevin, there would need to be some explaining how those two reconciled and found each other again.
(I guess I made my Kevin/Cassidy rebuttal after all)
Anyhow, I’m stunned that you’re clueless in regards to what two 90’s events I could be talking about here … especially the big one, which again, we’ll get to in time, because it’s not the one we’ll be seeing in this upcoming episode of This Is Us. Apparently you weren’t paying close enough attention to the end of the episode “Storybook Love” which ended like this:
https://youtu.be/iZZo_-_0k3c?t=128
Good old Marc. Kate’s pseudo-boyfriend who has the kind of wispy creeper mustache that you’d grow if you ever gave it a full-fledged attempt. There were red flags all over the place in that episode, on top of the bad facial hair: getting Kate’s address off of her job application, showing up at her house unannounced, introducing himself as Kate’s boyfriend when it was pretty clear that this wasn’t a discussion he had had with her prior. And then, there was 2019 Kate’s reaction to seeing those polaroid photos of Marc again.
There are unexplored issues here, issues that This Is Us producers have claimed caused “serious emotional wounds” to Kate. Even Chrissy Metz has alluded to these wounds, saying that “it’s very clear something traumatic happened.” Well, This Is Us never leaves anything unexplored for too long. I think it’s about time we see the first glimpse of trouble between teenage Kate and Marc with a “c.”
Now there are theories aplenty about what happened between Marc and Kate. Did Kate fall in love with Marc before he broke her heart? Was Marc abusive? Did he die? My money is unfortunately on abuse, and I think we see the first instance of that abuse intercut with a very heated KaToby argument in the present.
Thoughts on the possibility of this being the aforementioned “Unforgettable Moment” on the upcoming episode?
DB: Here’s the thing, I figured that one of the 90’s events you were referring to was the Marc/Katie storyline, I just thought I’d let you feel good about yourself for stumping me. HOWEVER, I will be actually for real honest this time and tell you that I assumed that that was the “big one” you keep mentioning. I still don’t know what other 90’s event you’re alluding to, but I’m sure you’ll get there eventually. I guess I’ll just “trust the process” as they say in Philadelphia.
You’re right that TIU doesn’t usually keep secrets for too long, and we’ve seen Marc a few times already so that is definitely a solid guess for what the big moment is going to be. Or it could be something we haven’t even come close to mentioning yet, you have to be prepared for anything with this show.
Can I actually ask you about something? It’s an idea I’m a little self-conscious about, but I think that my writing should be honest, except when I deem it ok to lie, like before.
Does Toby cheat on Kate?
I KNOW. It seems crazy, please don’t yell at me yet. Just hear me out. It is one billion percent out of character for Toby to participate in any infidelity, but I can’t shake this feeling I have. There’s the obvious cryptic text from “Lady Kryptonite” that needs to be mentioned. This is clearly supposed to allude to infidelity from Toby, but it seems like a red herring right? The writers want us to think that so they can go a different direction altogether. For me it actually seems like too obvious of a red herring. It’s a double red herring! So obvious in fact that it’s actually what happens!
What really seals the theory for me is that the double red herring comes just a few episodes after we saw Toby having difficulty with him and Kate’s lack of a sex life. It all seems to be leading toward a rough storyline for Toby.
Plus there’s two separate flash forwards that hint at this theory as well. Toby without his wedding ring and Kate signing a document with “Pearson” instead of “Damon”
To quote Ollivander:
Though, would Toby be invited to future Pearson gatherings if he had cheated on Kate? I don’t know! I told you I was self-conscious about this whole thing. What are your thoughts on the matter?
SG: No, I don’t think Toby cheats on Kate in the traditional sense, as in he is inserting a part of his body into someone else’s body. However, if he’s leaning on a female (Lady Kryptonite) for emotional support — and this is what it looks like TIU is building towards — that could be considered just as big of a betrayal in Kate’s eyes. To be honest, I think that’s what we’re heading towards, even if it does feel almost too obvious; Toby and Kate potentially separating, but not as a result of an event that is as damaging as Toby carrying out a sex-based affair with someone else, because as you mentioned, I don’t think Toby would be invited to future Pearson gatherings if he did that to Kate, and we know his presence was desired in the Flash Forward scene we’ve seen a couple of times already.
(As an aside, I think it’s entirely possible you are right and that this is a red herring. Couldn’t the name “Lady Kryptonite” also be one that belongs to a man? As in, this man is Kryptonite for ladies? Perhaps I’m just hopeful that things work out for KaToby.)
Anyway, since we’re getting deeper into this thing than Toby hopefully ever will for a woman besides Kate and we’ve still got to make some official predictions about where This Is Us will go over the next two and a half seasons, I should probably clear up the confusion about “the big 90’s event” that I keep mentioning, right?
Dalton, the biggest event in the This Is Us universe — the one that makes this whole show work — is the death of Jack Pearson. Yes, there is very little mystery left surrounding his death. We saw how the fire at the Pearson home started (fuck that crockpot!). We saw Jack turn into a goddamn superhero while he got his family out of the burning house. We saw him turn into an even more impressive goddamn superhero when he trekked back through the house to save Kate’s dog. We saw the last conversation that he and Rebecca had in the hospital. And we saw Rebecca walk into the hospital room to see Jack’s dead body.
You know what we didn’t see? We didn’t see Jack die. Now I know that the cause of death was a massive and sudden Widowmaker Heart Attack, so there isn’t a ton of pain and suffering and build-up to his death that we (or Jack) will have to endure like we did with Randall Pearson’s biological father William. But y’all are nuts if you don’t think we’re gonna see Jack Pearson’s final breath. It’s gonna happen, and it’s gonna be absolutely brutal. Are you ready for that Dalton?
DB: As per usual you handled all of that KaToby stuff with much more subtlety and grace than I did (minus the graphic sex jokes). It does make more sense that Kate would (justifiably) be upset by some sort of emotional infidelity committed by Toby, as opposed to Toby just straight up giving Lady Kryptonite the Man of Steel. I also very much enjoy your theory that “Lady Kryptonite” could in fact be a man who is very unsuccessful with, well, ladies. Though I don’t know if it holds up under too much scrutiny because I don’t see Kate divorcing Toby because he complained about her to his CrossFit buddy. Maybe she divorces him for using dumb nicknames in his contacts which would be a good enough reason in my book. Actually, to be fair, you’re in my contacts as Sonny, which is in itself a silly nickname for Santino, albeit not one I gave you. Italians are weird.
To your Jack Pearson point, I actually have a depressing thought/theory about when we’ll see Jack’s final breath. TIU loves juxtaposition, and every episode seems to have a narrative through line that connects the similarities and sometimes exact same problems of the past and present Pearson’s. (I just tried to say that 5 times fast like I was a Weasley twin)
Whether it be Kevin’s drinking problems juxtaposed with his father’s, or young Randall’s extreme anxiety juxtaposed to older Randall’s, there’s always some sort of common theme holding the 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 timelines together.
That being said, I don’t think we’ll see Jacks very last living moments until the final season when it is juxtaposed with the final moments of one of the Big Three.
With a show built so heavily upon the themes of grief and loss and the similarities of the past and the present, I don’t think we can get through the rest of the season without another beloved character meeting a tragic end. Imagine your rib cage being ripped open, your heart being torn out and thrown into a blender, and then still somehow being alive to watch someone hit the puree button and drink your heart smoothie. That’s what it would feel like to see Randall or Kevin Or Kate’s final moments in a hospital played out, being shown flat lining at the exact same time as their beloved father. Now that would be brutal.
Sonny, am I wrong? Would that be too much for fans to handle?
SG: Oh Dalton, you were so close to nailing when TIU is eventually going to pull the trigger on showing Jack’s death! You got like 90 percent of the way there, and I appreciate you trying to perhaps think outside of the box here, but let’s just keep it simple … we’re going to see Jack’s death at the same time we see Rebecca’s eventual death, because it’s the moment that Rebecca will be reunited with her beloved husband, if you believe in that sort of thing. My guess is we’ll see this in one of the final two episodes of the series; perhaps it’s the final scene in the penultimate episode of This Is Us, so that way the finale can provide us a little more happiness.
Since we’re dancing around the way this show will end, I think it’s only right we make some predictions. And since This Is Us is likely going six seasons, I say we each make six predictions and then check back here in April 2022 and check in on how we did. Deal?
Sonny’s Prediction #1: We will finally see Jack’s death, and it will come alongside Rebecca’s death in the final season.
Sonny’s Prediction #2: Deja and Malik end up getting married.
Sonny’s Prediction #3: Toby and Kate do end up divorced, but remain on good terms for their son Jack.
Sonny’s Prediction #4: Kevin’s wife will not be Cassidy. Nor will it be Sophie. It will be someone we haven’t met yet, but will be meeting soon.
(Played by Sophia Bush, perhaps?!)
Sonny’s Prediction #5: We’re due to see one big time Randall mental health breakdown, and it will be a performance that wins Sterling K. Brown an Emmy Award.
Sonny’s Prediction #6: Jack Damon and his wife Lucy will name their child “Rebecca,” after Jack’s grandma.
DB: Per usual, you’re absolutely right. Showing both Jack and Rebecca’s final moments together would be the most poignant and tragic example of the juxtaposition I mentioned before and now that you’ve said it, that seems like obvious place the show is heading to. Before we get there though, here are my predictions for what we’ll see before the end:
Dalton’s Prediction #1: I already said this one, and even though you poked holes in my theory of how it will be handled, I still think we see one of the Big Three die at some point in the show.
Dalton’s Prediction #2: Toby and Kate actually don’t get divorced and there are perfectly reasonable explanations for all of the hints that they are separated.
Dalton’s Prediction #3: To counter you, Deja and Malik don’t end up staying together because that seems like way too much of a perfect love story for TIU. There are still some big dramatic story lines left in Deja’s arc, if you ask me.
Dalton’s Prediction #4: Randall is running for President in a future timeline. (I don’t know, I’m trying to take some big swings here)
Dalton’s Prediction #5: Alright, if we’re doing children name predictions here, Kevin is going to name his son Nicholas, so we can have a second coming of Jack and Nicky.
Dalton’s Prediction #6: Beth continues to be the best character on the show. This is less of a prediction and more of a foregone conclusion because she’s perfect.
Whatever happens, the only prediction we can make with absolute 100% certainty is that we’re gonna cry. A lot.
