The 21st Century’s Horsemen of the Apocalypse: The Big Four Deep Drivers of Destabilization

By J.P. Harpignies

A series of recent destabilizing electoral outcomes — Brexit, the defeat of Matteo Renzi’s reform package in Italy, and of course the biggest of all, the Trump victory — have understandably drawn a great deal of political commentators’ attention these days. Many of us greeted the recent election in Holland with great relief and are now going to watch the upcoming elections in France this spring, the one in Germany in September and perhaps an Italian one before year’s end with a great deal of angst, praying the advance of the far-right can be stopped or at least slowed down at “Old Europe’s” gates. But it also behooves us to on occasion back away a bit from the daily churn of news, as shocking as much of it is these days, to take a broader look at the deeper, long-term forces that are likely to be most consequential in shaping the world order in the coming decades.

Along with the environmental crises that potentially threaten the viability of the biosphere’s capacity to sustain life, the development and deployment of a series of new, radically disruptive genetic and A.I. technologies are, in my view, the most significant factors that will radically affect the future of our species in the long-term. However, in this piece I will focus on the trends…