Calm before the storm ⛈

Mohit Sorout
Bitazu Capital
Published in
2 min readDec 10, 2022

It is a fine Saturday morning, another day of Bitcoin being choppy and indecisive, not showing a clear trend. Volatility has dried up. Where are the high levels of volatility crypto markets are notoriously known for, the kind of volatility that shakes up tardfi bros to the core?

In this short write-up, I will be presenting two volatility-based indicators that are relevant to the crypto market, specifically the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

  1. SQUEEZE — As the name suggests, this is a prop indicator that accurately identifies times of contraction. Once the contraction ends, expansion begins. Sometimes right away, sometimes after a lag. But the expansion comes, always. Look at this thing in action in the past on bitcoin -
BTC 2012–2016

Bitcoin is coiling towards a big move as the indicator has recently flashed a signal -

BTC 2018-now

There’s a squeeze signal on ethereum as well -

ETH 2020-now

2. VOL — This is another prop indicator that displays the different moods & colors of Bitcoin volatility. Evidently, a higher value suggests highly volatile conditions, low value signals that volatility has dried up.

Look at the zones VOL dropped to in previous times of contraction. Whenever it dropped to the blue zone, an explosive move followed -

BTC 2012–2015
BTC 2015–2016

It has entered the blue zone again now & bitcoin looks well on track to begin a multi-month trend:

BTC 2018-now

To conclude, I am of strong opinion that in Q1, Q2 2023 we will see big expansion in price of Bitcoin and Ethereum. And in case you couldn’t guess from my tone earlier, yes my bias is to the upside.

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Mohit Sorout
Bitazu Capital

Partner @ Bitazu Capital | Tech, bitcoin, money, markets