【Bitmidas】Bitcoin Trend Analytics 15th March 2022

BTC/USD, using Investing data flow for the analysis.

Recap:

Yesterday BTC tested the critical area at 37140~37017.70 multiple times, and the price was moving between 39615.5~37017.70 for some time.

We could see the price was kept in the range.
Today the opening price is 39673 at 8:00 UTC+8.

Trend Analysis:

Now BTC is in a congestion range between 43912.8 ~ 37017.70, centering 39962.22.

As 37017.70 serves as strong support, the price bounces back to the central. Consequently, we’ll see the price frequently moving back and forth around the center before tomorrow.

Tomorrow’s FOMC meeting will be held. Any Fed’s adjustment to the interest rate will have a certain impact on BTC. The present interest rate is 0–0.25%. Inflation has climbed to 8% recently, and there’s no sign of declining, then raising the interest rate is inevitable. However, we don’t know how much increase in the interest rate is in line with the market expectation. This ratio will impact the financial market and even more on BTC.

Now BTC is still running in the congestion. Whether it rise or fall, it will eventually come near the center because the market is waiting for a clear signal from the Fed. Therefore, BTC is driven to a breakout at any time today.

The red triangle in the chart indicates that the price is compressed almost to its limit. From the result of the FOMC meeting on Mar 16th, the market will choose a direction.

Raising interest rates usually put pressure on BTC and drives the price downward. But there’s no absolute in the financial market. If the actual rise in interest rate is less than that of market expectation, then the CM will pull up and take in the profit from the short orders.

In the face of the possibilities of either direction, I recommend you, drawing from my own experience, to watch closely on the center. As the breakout is near, price kept above the center is likely to see an upward change and vice versa.

Taking the center as a reference will help you predict direction quickly. However, if you’re not good at trading during the change, you should avoid risks and wait for the change.

No matter which direction it takes, the rising interest rate will put real pressure on BTC, as it leads to a fund outflow. Nevertheless, BTC is still in a bullish trend. The Price Change will force BTC to run in another congestion range and show itself towards a more apparent direction.

In my calculation today, the power of Price Change could kick the price up to 43912.8 ~ 47017 on the top, or down to 35351.31~35009; 31785.40 at the bottom. If it breaks 31785.40, there would be dumping further to an area at 28501.9.

Well, I have given out all the tips and the calculation on the strength. Be on your guard to manage your assets. Again, keep watching for the center.

There are 3 level ranges to focus on:

1. The central at 39962.22, a key reference to decide on the direction. The price will move around it within the range. When the market choose a direction, take it as a critical indicator.

2. A key supporting area between 37140~37017.70. This is a crucial resistance today. As long as the price remains above it, BTC will recover in the range. If it’s broken, however, we cannot see a pullback to touch 37017.70 again within 3–5 days, and the congestion range automatically is adjusted to 37208~28501.9.

3. The upper range at 43912.8 gradually diverted from 45000. This is strong resistance in terms of positions as well as market sentiment. Only by breaking up 45000 could we see a true recovery of market confidence.

Although BTC decreases in the short term, it remains on a bullish track in the long term. Currently, BTC is in correction among a long-term bullish trend, resulting in the price moving back and forth between key supports and resistances.

Supports:
38901~38802; 38019; 37140~37017.70; 36475.50; 35351.31~35009; 34132.52; 32927.70; 31785.40; 30000; 29220.63; 28501.9; 27315.14~27170.43; 25352.16; 23779.54 (pointless to see further down atm)

Resistances:
39962.22(wrestle at the central); 40556.30; 41326; 41808~42200; 42075.51; 42562.19; 43821.59~43912.8; 44995~45084.05; 45968.85; 46810.53~47409.95; 48719.63~49084.21; 50843.93 (pointless to see further above atm)

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