【Bitmidas】Important! Bitcoin Trend Analytics 16th March 2022
BTC/USD, using Investing data flow for the analysis (Deciding on the direction)
Recap:
Yesterday, BTC came upon a period of choosing directions. We should pay attention to Fed’s decision. We saw the price oscillated frequently around the central yesterday.
The highest price came to 39854.7, suppressed by the calculated center at 39962.22. The lowest price was 38220.9, supported by 38019, which is also within my calculation. The frequent oscillation has driven BTC close to the center.
Today the opening price is 39282.5 at 8:00 UTC+8.
Trend Analysis:
Now BTC is in a congestion range between 43912.8 ~ 37017.70, centering 39876.76.
Today the center is dragged a little bit lower than that of yesterday, so its force is slightly weakened but it still functions as a fortress for both sides. The breakout will happen soon and be swayed by 2 factors.
1. Price is above the center, upwards; Price being under the center, downwards.
2. Fed’s decision on raising interest rates lower than market expectation, upwards; Fed’s interest rates higher than the expectation, downwards.
Now the price is under the center, so the latter gives pressure on price. Since it’s diverted downward, its force weakens. Both sides are still trying to take control over the center, and either side could win anytime. When the shift comes, we should refer to the Fed’s decision to decide if the price would continue to stay above or beneath.
Fed’s meeting starts on Mar.16th, with the interest rates now being 0–0.25%, the market expatiation is 0.5%. The result will come out on Mar.17th, when we can make a fair judgment.
If the interest rates <0.5%, lower than expectation, fund outflow weakens, so the price is likely to break up. If the interest rate >0.5%, higher than expectation, fund outflow strengthens, so the price is likely to fall.
There is also a possible situation when interest rates =0.5%. That’s when we should make judgments with reference to the center. In this case, if the price remains above the center, it’s likely to go up and vice versa.
As I mentioned yesterday, the red triangle in the chart indicates that the price is compressed almost to its limit. Price will go bumpy within these two days. The direction should be made clear on Mar.17th. Nevertheless, choosing a direction is only a temporary breakout. BTC will mainly be affected by the actual interest rates.
With inflation at 8%, a rising interest rate is inevitable. Every time the adjustment to the interest rates will lead to funding outflows in crypto, bringing pressure to the price, apparently on BTC.
Read from a 1-month time frame, BTC is in a bullish trend. The breakout will force BTC to run in another congestion range and show itself towards a more apparent direction.
Now BTC is still running in the congestion. Every rebound is restricted within my calculated area, and every downfall is underpinned by 37140~37017.70, which prevented the price from entering lower-range congestion.
As price always returns to the calculated center, waiting for a clear sign of a breakout, and follows the pattern I predicted in the short term. I believe you might have figured out who I am and my trading preference. My old friends who are familiar with my trading should know this turning point is profitable but also comes with high risks. If you’re not good at trading at this point in time, you’d better wait after the change.
Same as yesterday’s prediction, the power of breakout could kick the price up to 43912.8 ~ 47017 on the top, or down to 35351.31~35009; 31785.40 at the bottom. If it breaks 31785.40, there would be dumping further to an area at 28501.9.
Well, I have given out all the tips and the calculation on the strength. It’s up to your own risk preference to manage your assets. If you trade, again, keep watching for the center and refer to Fed’s decision on interest rates. If not, wait and avoid risks.
There are 3 level ranges to focus on:
1. The central at 39962.22, a key reference to decide on the direction. The price will move around it within the range. When price changes, take it as a critical indicator.
2. A key supporting area between 37140~37017.70. This is a crucial resistance at the lower range. As long as the price remains above it, BTC will recover in the range. If it’s broken, however, we cannot see a pullback to touch 37017.70 again within 3–5 days, and the congestion range automatically is adjusted to 37208~28501.9.
3. The upper range at 43912.8 gradually diverted from 45000. This is strong resistance in terms of positions as well as market sentiment. Only by breaking up 45000 could we see a true recovery of market confidence.
Although BTC decreases in the short term, it remains on a bullish track in the long term. Currently, BTC is in correction among a long-term bullish trend, resulting in the price moving back and forth between key supports and resistances.
Supports:
38908.58~38853.05; 38019; 37140~37017.70; 36475.50; 35351.31~35009; 34132.52; 32927.70; 31785.40; 30000; 29220.63; 28222.56; 27315.14~27170.43; 25352.16; 23779.54; 22324.10 (pointless to see further down atm)
Resistances:
39876.76 (wrestle at the central); 40556.30; 41326; 41982~42200; 42562.19; 43821.59~43912.8; 44995~45084.05; 45968.85~46029.04; 46810.53~47409.95; 48719.63~49084.21; 50843.93 (pointless to see further above atm)
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*Not Financial Advice*
