The Best of The One and Done Era
This article first appeared on Blazin Sports by Prashil Patel.
Kentucky freshmen, from left, John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Daniel Orton, Eric Bledsoe.
Since the inception of the age rule in 2006, there have been eight drafts (2007–2014) and 68 “one and done” players selected in them. The rule placed an age minimum of 19 to enter the NBA, forcing players to complete at least one year of college. With the current collective bargaining agreement set to expire in 2017 and a possible 3rd lockout looming, changes to the draft process are inevitable. Commissioner Adam Silver has talked about moving the age limit to enter the league up to 20, seemingly changing the “one and done” to “two and done”. We could be coming to the end of an era, so let’s take a look at how the players have fared so far. Below is an analysis of the players into 4 categories: stars, starters, rotation, and busts. All categories are subjective; Everyone has a different opinion on a player ratings and these are just mine. A player does not have to been named to an All-Star game to qualify for star category, just has to be All-Star caliber. I understand it is early to pass judgement on the last two drafts, but I’ll try to strike a balance between what they have accomplished so far in the league and what they can be someday.
2007
Round Pick Player 1 1 Greg Oden 1 2 Kevin Durant 1 4 Mike Conley Jr. 1 8 Brandan Wright 1 10 Spencer Hawes 1 12 Thaddeus Young 1 19 Javaris Crittenton 1 21 Daequan Cook
Stars: Kevin Durant, Mike Conley Jr.
Starters: Thaddeus Young
Rotation Players: Brandan Wright, Spencer Hawes
Busts: Greg Oden, Javaris Crittenton, Daequan Cook
The first draft effected by the rule change also produced the best one-and-done era player in Kevin Durant. Out of the three Ohio State guys, who would have thought Mike Conley was going to be the best? Greg Oden just could not stay healthy and while Cook won a three-point contest, his NBA play was nonexistent. Brandan Wright up until this year would have been in the bust category for me, but he has had a nice turn around to his career. Young has carved out a good role for himself as an undersized 4 who can take bigger guys off the dribble and also attack in transition. You rarely see small ball fours like Young who struggle to shoot, but he has made it work in both Philly and Brooklyn. I cannot begin to explain to you why Spencer Hawes has struggled this season with arguably his best chance to succeed yet in the league, but it may just be an off year and he has been a good shooter and passer for the majority of his career. Crittenton, who was recruited along side Young at Georgia Tech, is mostly known for his off the court troubles, just recently got sentenced to 23 years in jail for killing a mother of four.
2008
Round Pick Player 1 1 Derrick Rose 1 2 Michael Beasley 1 3 O.J. Mayo 1 5 Kevin Love 1 7 Eric Gordon 1 11 Jerryd Bayless 1 14 Anthony Randolph 1 19 J.J. Hickson 1 23 Kosta Koufos 1 28 Donté Greene 2 35 DeAndre Jordan 2 47 Bill Walker
Stars: Derrick Rose, Kevin Love
Starters: Eric Gordon, DeAndre Jordan
Rotation Players: O.J. Mayo, Jerryd Bayless, Kosta Koufos, J.J. Hickson
Busts: Michael Beasley, Anthony Randolph, Donté Greene, Bill Walker
The most one and dones in any draft class with 12. This draft was all over the place, producing a little bit of every group. DeAndre Jordan is nearing himself into the star category, and Gordon would be there right now in my opinion if it was not for injuries. What a draft by the Clippers, by the way. Getting Gordon in the lottery and stealing Jordan in the second round. While most people had higher hopes for O.J. Mayo, seven years into his career he’s proven he’s more of a bench player in his stints with Memphis and Milwaukee. Same goes for Bayless. Beasley and Randolph showed flashes of something remotely sustainable but just did not have the overall skill level and maturity to live up to the expectations.
2009
Round Pick Player 1 4 Tyreke Evans 1 9 DeMar DeRozan 1 10 Brandon Jennings 1 17 Jrue Holiday 1 24 Byron Mullens
Stars: None
Starters: Jrue Holiday, Demar Derozan, Tyreke Evans
Rotation Players: Brandon Jennings
Busts: Byron Mullens
Following the draft class in 2008 with the most one and dones with 12, the draft class had the least with 5. The first draft with no players in the star category so far. The trio of Evans, Derozan, and Holiday are all interesting because they have all shown major flashes of talent over their six seasons but due to injuries/teams and lack of individual improvement have halted their development. Evans came out strong and averaged 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists and won the Rookie of the Year award on a terrible Kings team. He became the only the third rookie to average those numbers following Jordan and Oscar. The next 5 seasons were not so good for him. He has battled through numerous coaching and positional changes and been on some awful teams but has regressed from his rookie season. Holiday and DeRozan were both All-Stars, but for me they are not in the star category because it was in a watered down Eastern Conference and for me they have not reached that same level of play outside of their All-Star seasons (Holiday in 2012–2013, DeRozan in 2013–2014) in any other of their 5 seasons. Yes, Brandon Jennings has been a starter his whole career on both the Bucks and Pistons and dropped 55 points as a 19 year old in the NBA, but no, that does not make him a starter caliber player in my opinion. His teams have had a losing record in 5 of his 6 years in the league and he is a huge part of that. His destiny is to be a sixth man heat check guy, a minimum wage Isaiah Thomas.
2010
Round Pick Player 1 1 John Wall 1 3 Derrick Favors 1 5 DeMarcus Cousins 1 12 Xavier Henry 1 18 Eric Bledsoe 1 19 Avery Bradley 1 29 Daniel Orton 2 33 Hassan Whiteside 2 40 Lance Stephenson 2 47 Tiny Gallon
Stars: John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins
Starters: Derrick Favors, Eric Bledsoe
Rotation Players: Lance Stephenson, Avery Bradley, Hassan Whiteside
Busts: Xavier Henry, Daniel Orton, Tiny Gallon
This draft did have 3 busts but was overall really solid. Lance and Whiteside were a little difficult to rank due to their one year cameos as quality NBA starters. I decided to rank them as just rotational players for now because they have both only have one good season in 5 years and they have to prove they can keep it up. Lance was major bench warmer before the 2013–2014 season and was back on it for the majority of this season, while Whiteside was even worse playing overseas for most of his young career before his miracle season with the Heat. Avery Bradley has been a solid player and getting better by the day. Favors and Bledsoe both got off to slow starts, mostly due to a crowd at their position (Millsap, Jefferson, Kanter for Favors, and Baron Davis, Paul, Dragic for Bledsoe), but have improved greatly and become one of the best two players on their respective teams. Wall and Cousins have both been top 5 players at their position and have had to endure a plethora of bad front office decisions for their short time in the league and continue to get better. Henry, Orton and Gallon have just been flat out busts and only useful for a Pitino game party at this point.
2011
Round Pick Player 1 1 Kyrie Irving 1 3 Enes Kanter 1 4 Tristan Thompson 1 8 Brandon Knight 1 19 Tobias Harris 1 29 Cory Joseph 2 49 Josh Selby
Stars: Kyrie Irving
Starters: Tobias Harris, Brandon Knight
Rotation Players: Tristan Thompson, Enes Kanter, Cory Joseph
Busts: Josh Selby
A lot of people thought Derrick Williams should have gone number one in this draft, including me, and they could not have been more wrong. Kyrie has gone on to make 3 All-Star games and win All-Star game MVP, Rookie of the Year, and FIBA World Cup MVP in 4 seasons and he is still just 23 years old. Thompson and Kanter were a toss up to me initially between rotation and starter placement, but after thinking about it they both have been relatively subpar to say the least before his resurgence this season. They are both one trick ponies (Thompson’s rebounding, Kanter’s offensive) and it is hard to gauge how much of their success is coming due to playing with great players like Westbrook and LeBron. Brandon Knight was also terrible his first 3 seasons (2 with Detroit and 1 with Milwaukee) but has turned his career around and it looks like it may be for real. He was the best player on a playoff team before getting traded and deserved to be an All-Star reserve. There were high hopes for Josh Selby out of Kansas, but they just did not materialize. He struggled for playing time on Memphis team with Conley, Mayo, Allen and Vasquez and flamed out of the league quickly.
2012
Round Pick Player 1 1 Anthony Davis 1 2 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 1 3 Bradley Beal 1 9 Andre Drummond 1 10 Austin Rivers 1 15 Maurice Harkless 1 25 Tony Wroten 1 29 Marquis Teague 2 38 Quincy Miller
Stars: Anthony Davis, Bradley Beal
Starters: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Andre Drummond
Rotation Players: Tony Wroten, Moe Harkless, Austin Rivers
Busts: Marquis Teague, Quincy Miller
I said earlier that Kevin Durant was the best one and done era player, and personally is still the second best overall player in the league currently, but man the Brow may have something to say about that when it’s all said and done. Not only does he have a great chance to be the best player on this list/article but the best player in the league for the next decade. Accomplishments under the belt include an Olympic gold medal, 2 All-Star games, led the league with an absurd 30.8 PER this season and averaged 31.5 points, 11 rebounds, and 3.0 blocks against the best team in the league at 22 years old. Yikes. Bradley Beal is also on his way to stardom. He was the youngest player in the draft and he’s still 21 and won’t turn 22 the end of June. As long as he stays healthy and plays with John Wall, multiple all-star appearances are in his future. Drummond has a chance to be the next DeAndre Jordan once he gets a better team around him and continues to grow offensively, especially in the post. MKG has a chance to win Defensive Player of the Year or be in the mix several times throughout his career, taking over Tony Allen’s throne. Austin Rivers… what is there to say. He’s was fighting for playing time on a team with Brian Roberts, Jimmer Fredette and constantly injured Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon. He will end up being a bust and out of the league real soon once the nepotistic favors run out. Wroten was buried on that Memphis roster just like Josh Selby and I thought he would have a similar fate, but he showed signs of being a Lou Williams type of player on the 76ers before he tore his ACL early in the season. Harkless is another talented, interesting player who has not gotten enough playing time to show his true worth and skill. I maybe going out on a limb here but I think he can end up being a DeMarre Carroll/Middleton type of steal for a team.
2013
Round Pick Player 1 1 Anthony Bennett 1 6 Nerlens Noel 1 7 Ben McLemore 1 12 Steven Adams 1 14 Shabazz Muhammad 1 29 Archie Goodwin 2 40 Grant Jarrett 2 43 Ricky Ledo
Stars: None
Starters: Steven Adams, Nerlens Noel
Rotation Players: Shabazz Muhammad, Ben McLemore, Archie Goodwin,
Busts: Anthony Bennett, Grant Jarrett, Ricky Ledo
The second draft with no player in the star category. Again, this is where it gets harder to evaluate due to proximity of the draft only being 2 years ago. Noel finished 3rd in Rookie of the Year voting this year and has the only realistic shot out of this group to be a star. Adams with his 7 ft strong frame and rebounding and defense will be a solid player for a long time. McLemore has the potential to be a “3 and D” type player but the D standing for dunks instead of defense. Other famous “3 and Dunks” players: Gerald Green and Terrence Ross. Young Trevor Ariza is the rare player to fall into both the traditional 3 and D and 3 and Dunks categories. Goodwin has spent the majority of his 2 seasons sitting on the Phoenix bench, which is something the Suns seem to do a lot with their rookies. Maybe if he got more playing time we could see what he can do and he has shown some flashes of elite athleticism and a decent looking NBA jumper in the sparse minutes he’s played. He could just as easily end up a bust rather than a rotational player. Shabazz Muhammad and Anthony Bennett both worked out with US Navy Seals in the offseason to shed weight and get into better playing shape and it payed dividends to one of them. Shabazz was having his best offensive stretch of his career before straining his oblique. The 20 games prior to his injury he average 16.9 points including a 30 point game against Utah. Bennett might end of being the worst draft pick of all time. I said I would try to not be harsh to the player taken in the last few drafts but Bennett is the lone exception. He is a tweener in a time where basketball is progressively going away from traditional positions and he still can’t find a way fit in. If he’s not getting playing time on the worst team in the league for two straight seasons, when the hell is he? He can’t play small forward and can’t rebound, shoot, and defend well enough to play stretch 4. All this combined with his lack of work ethic and sleep apnea problems and he will be out of the league in no time.
2014
Round Pick Player 1 1 Andrew Wiggins 1 2 Jabari Parker 1 3 Joel Embiid 1 4 Aaron Gordon 1 7 Julius Randle 1 9 Noah Vonleh 1 13 Zach LaVine 1 17 James Young 1 18 Tyler Ennis
Stars: Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid
Starters: Aaron Gordon, Julius Randle
Rotation Players: Zach LaVine, Noah Vonleh, James Young, Tyler Ennis
Busts: None
Wiggins was freaking fantastic this season. Flat out unbelievable. He became one of my more favorite players to watch this season. He became only the 5th player ever to average 16.9 points in his age 19 season (LBJ, Melo, Durant, Kyrie). The questions about his motor and NBA readiness seem foolish now that we’ve seen what he can do. He is already one of the best post up players in the league, showing he can post up on either block, turn over both shoulders and fake shoulder shimmy inside or step through. In addition to his ahead of his time multiple move post game and elite and I mean ELITE athleticism, he has a deadly spin move and step back going in both directions. It doesn’t end there either, Wiggins is already an above average defensive player even with his slight frame. The sky is the limit for him. I see him finishing as the 3rd best player in the one and done era behind Davis and Durant. Outside Wiggins this one and done class was hampered with injuries. Parker was playing good and within a team scheme before he tore his ACL and I have no doubt in my mind he will pickup right where he left off. The scoring and All-Star games will all be there for him. Same goes for Embiid, who has had some problems staying in shape and keeping up with rehab, but Brett Brown will have him in tip top form and his talent is tantalizing. Expect him to be on multiple all-defensive teams, average 20 and 10 and even stretch out to the three point line every now and then. Gordon and Randle will be starters for their teams once they get healthy and will be integral players, nothing special but they will be plus players for their teams. LaVine put up some good scoring outputs in the last month of the season, but where as Wiggins skills translates to any team, I don’t know if LaVine makes that kind of impact on a better team. He had free reign to play point and jack up as many shots as he wanted. The point guard project will never work with him, but I can see him being a 2 or 3 who runs the break and shoots 3s, kind of like Corey Brewer with a better jumper. There’s not much you can say about Vonley, Young and Ennis after only one season of little to no playing time for all three and injuries for Vonleh and Young. They are in the rotation category for now, but time will only tell where they will eventually end up.
Only 9 out of the 68 one and dones were taken in the second round of the draft and below is a chart of percentage of players by the categories they were placed in.
Note the nearly equal rate of hitting a star or a bust.
Colleges with the Most One and Dones
Kentucky 13 Kansas 5 Ohio State 5 UCLA 4 Texas 4 Duke 3 Arizona 3 Georgia Tech 3 Memphis 2 Indiana 2 Syracuse 2 Washington 2 USC 2 Kansas State 2 15 tied 1
Extras
Dwyane Wade won All-Star Game MVP in 2010 –> LeBron joined Heat that summer
Kyrie Irving won All-Star Game MVP in 2014 –> LeBron joined Cavs that summer
Russell Westbrook won All-Star Game MVP in 2015 –> LeBron has a player option this summer…
^ I start this article a while ago and recently finished it. I don’t know when or why I chose to write this here, but it was too good to erase. Speculation is the greatest.
Originally published at www.blazinsports.com on May 4, 2015.
