Security begins with trust

“The OSCE has the flexibility, the tools and the expertise to be an effective force for stability and peace in the Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian space”

Thomas Greminger
Secretary-General, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)

  • This article was originally published as part of the 2018 edition of Bled Strategic Times, the official gazzette of the Bled Strategic Forum (BSF) international conference. You can access the full version of this and other BSF publications by visiting our official website.

Europe today is contending with deep-ly unsettling challenges that are calling into question time-honored relationships and longstanding approaches to the security of our continent. Fundamental principles that have underpinned the international order for decades have been violated. Developments that just a few years ago seemed inconceivable are shaking up politics in unforeseen ways. We see a deepening discord in East-West relations, not only over political and military matters, but also over values. Relations among key stakeholders, and even among longstanding allies, are being reassessed and are showing signs of repositioning. Trust hasbroken down, deterrence is on the rise, and the space for dialogue is shrinking.

At the same time, Europe is facing a multiplicity of complex and often intertwined security challenges unlike any we have seen before: an upsurge in terrorism and violent extremism; growth in transnational threats like organized crime and trafficking in drugs, arms and people; global challenges from climate change, mass movements of people, and increasing economic disparities within and between countries and regions. In reaction to some of these challenges, we see a worrying growth in populism, nationalism and even xenophobia. Fear and prejudice are creating divisions within our societies, and between states and regions.

We also see new forms of conflict emerging, beyond the traditional military battlefield. A broad array of conventional and unconventional measures in the political, economic and information spheres are being used to destabilize societies. The lines between traditional foreign policy and active measures aimed at gaining influence over political processes in specific states are blurring. Destabilizing measures are generally employed at a level below the threshold

of what would usually trigger a war. They nevertheless have potential to cause considerable disruption and even panic, both in peaceful societies and those already vulnerable from recent conflict. Customary responses to security threats are largely proving inadequate to counteract the malicious use of new technologies, including cyber-attacks and disinformation campaigns. There are few technical measures in place to attribute responsibility when states use cyber capabilities to target public infrastructure or election systems.

The result of all these challenges is a more unpredictable, unstable and polarized security landscape. One in which we face a growing risk of conflict.

Cooperation instead of confrontation

While there are disagreements about how we got into this dangerous situation, we share a common interest in finding a way out. Yet the pendulum has swung towards unilateralism and a focus on narrow parochial interests at the expense of common concerns. The space for multilateralism has contracted just when we need it most.

I am convinced that cooperation is the best way forward. History bears this out. The lessons of the Helsinki process show that even in times of extraordinary tension, it is possible to work together across divides to rebuild trust and to find areas for cooperation. Our Cold War predecessors showed political courage and determined leadership and embarked on a cooperative path. Their actions built on a fundamental understanding that our security is common.

Only trust building and predictable interaction based on shared principles can counter growing skepticism about the viability of our cooperative security order. So we should look for convergences of interests and areas for constructive engagement within the framework of our fundamental principles.

Cyber security is one such area of convergence. It is in every state’s interest to cooperate to prevent potential escalation in response to threats stemming from the use of cyber or information and communication technologies. The OSCE is in the vanguard among multilateral organizations, with 16 pioneering “cyber-CBMs” designed to lower the risk of misperception and miscalculation connected to the use of ICTs by states. These measures, which were agreed by all 57 OSCE participating States, have the potential to enhance transparency and predictability. Now the focus must be on implementation.

Need for security dialogue

The volatility and unpredictability of the European security environment makes dialogue on key security concerns in the military realm particularly urgent.

Greater investments in defence, growing pressure for militarizedresponses and increasingly hostile rhetoric have all contributed to heighten the risk of conflict. Military incidents, especially those in the air and on the high seas, continue to jeopardize security and stability, in particular in the Baltic and Black Sea areas. More frequent, and at times unannounced, military exercises have helped shape divergent threat perceptions, with many states concerned about the intent of such exercises. Taking concrete steps to reduce risks and help de-escalate tensions is crucial to preventing accidental conflict triggered by misperceptions or misunderstandings.

Yet formal dialogue mechanisms where such issues can be freely discussed by the Russian Federation and the West are now few and far between. There is less military-to-military dialogue today than during the Cold War. Interaction between the diplomatic and military communities is also lacking.

How can confidence be built if there is no contact? Without meaningful engagement, the current breakdown in trust cannot be overcome.

So we must seize upon informal opportunities for dialogue.

The OSCE participating States have responded to this need by creating the Structured Dialogue, an informal, inter-governmental platform for discussions on politico-military matters. The constructive tone of this state-driven and state-owned process has already yielded useful exchanges on threat perceptions, force postures and military doctrines. The active participation of senior policymakers from Ministries of Defense is a key factor in its success.

The Structured Dialogue process has produced a mapping of force postures and exercises, and is now exploring potential measures on incident prevention and management, especially in the air and at sea, and voluntary notification of major exercises, including snap exercises. The hope is to enhance opportunities for military-to-military contact through the development of complementary regional confidenceand security-building measures under the existing Vienna Document framework.

As one of the few remaining open channels for communication, the Structured Dialogue could, I hope, lead to agreement on military risk reduction measures and a reinvigoration of existing confidenceand security-building measures. Eventually, it might even revive interest in conventional arms control.

The crisis in and around Ukraine

The main obstacle to restoring trust and cooperation in Europe today is the crisis in and around Ukraine. Working toward a sustainable resolution of this crisis is the OSCE’s top priority. The Organization works to de-escalate tensions on the ground, and facilitates political efforts to achieve a peaceful settlement.

After more than four years of fighting, the humanitarian situation in eastern Ukraine is dire. The lives of 4.4 million people have been affected by the conflict, with 3.4 million of them in need of humanitarian aid. Civilians face the constant fear of shelling and landmines, and often lack the most basic necessities, including food, water and medicine. Fighting near critical infrastructure endangers access to clean water, electricity and heating for hundreds of thousands of people. Civilians wait for hours and days in treacherous conditions to cross the contact line.

The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM), with more than 700 unarmed monitors, is the first civilian field mission of this scope to work in a conflict zone. In response to changing operational circumstances, the SMM has expanded OSCE practices, for example by using modern technologies to complement the work of monitoring teams on the ground. The use of unmanned aerial vehicles, cameras, satellite imagery and sound sensors enables the SMM to monitor in areas where access is denied, or security risks are too high.

The Minsk Agreements remain the key framework for achieving a political settlement to the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. The prospect of an imminent settlement regrettably seems elusive. The sides should move away from military logic, and — through implementing the Minsk Agreements fully — create some tangible relief for the people on the ground. A new impetus is needed at the highest political levels, including further reengagement of the Normandy Format to move the process forward.

Recent discussions about a possible UN peace operation in eastern Ukraine have spotlighted the OSCE’s added value as a regional arrangement under Chapter VIII of the UN Charter, and as a longstanding partner in conflict management, conflict resolution and post-conflict rehabilitation. The OSCE is ready to co-operate with the UN on any concrete proposals that emerge from the Security Council. After more than four years on the ground, we have invaluable experience and knowledge, and we have proven our worth as an impartial observer and an honest broker.

I am convinced that achieving a peaceful settlement in Donbas is possible. I urge all who have influence on the sides to push harder to break the political stalemate and to get the signatories to comply with agreed measures.

Ultimately, achieving sustainable peace in eastern Ukraine hinges on political will. This is also true for other conflicts in the OSCE region, not least in Moldova and the South Caucasus. Recent progress in the Transdniestrian settlement process has shown that co-operation is possible, and can lead to practical results — provided international stakeholders pull together, and the sides muster the political will to enable progress.

Security challenges and opportunities in the Western Balkans

Changing European security priorities since 2014 have had significant implications for the Western Balkans. A shift of focus eastwards, and stagnation in the EU integration process, have opened a space for new actors to engage in the region. Some have challenged efforts to fully integrate the Western Balkan states into Euro-Atlantic structures. Concurrently, radicalization and transnational threats pose a growing risk within and between societies in the region. Despite such challenges, we also see some positive steps, for instance agreement between Skopje and Athens to resolve the name issue, which I hope will help create a new dynamic in the regionReaffirmation of EU support for the European perspective of the Western Balkans and assurances to strengthen and intensify their ties to the region are welcome steps.

Ensuring and strengthening stability in the region should be the key priority for all stakeholders. The OSCE remains fully committed to supporting the Western Balkans by continuing to promote a wide range of reforms in the areas of human rights, rule of law, democratization, good governance and media pluralism. Regional cooperation to fight corruption and organized crime are also important priorities for the OSCE.

Looking to the future

One of the OSCE’s key strengths is its ability to innovate and to adapt to evolving circumstances. Through its field operations in the Western Balkans, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, as well as through its Institutions — the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, the High Commissioner on National Minorities, and the Representative on Freedom of the Media — the OSCE helps countries to build stable structures and capacity for the long term. Its efforts are tailored to local needs and grounded in local ownership.

Thanks to its comprehensive security concept and inclusive membership, the OSCE offers a useful platform for enhancing dialogue and cooperation on European security. Due to the general lack of trust, for the time being an incremental approach to cooperation is the most realistic. However, our basic principles cannot be sacrificed for the sake of finding common ground. Instead, our principles should underpin our efforts.

I am convinced that the OSCE has the flexibility, the tools and the expertise to be an effective force for stability and peace in the Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian space. The Organization has repeatedly proved its ability to respond to crises, but it also needs to be ready to seize opportunities for cooperation, like the new regional dynamic in Central Asia since the changes in Uzbekistan. But it is up to OSCE participating States to use the OSCE’s inclusive platform to its full advantage. So I urge them to take inspiration from our history, and to use the OSCE to rebuild trust and revitalize the spirit of cooperation. This would help to increase security for us all.


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Bled Strategic Forum

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A platform for high-level strategic dialogue among leaders from private & public sector. Organised by Slovenian MFA & Centre for European Perspective (CEP).

Bled Strategic Forum

The official Medium publication of Bled Strategic Forum (BSF) — a platform for high-level strategic dialogue among leaders from private & public sector. Organised by the Slovenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs & Centre for European Perspective (CEP).

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