The Chests of Random

Opening loot boxes and chest is rather fun. You never know what you will get.

Recently Cutieneers reported that luck seemed to be against them. Weapon Chests from Wasteland refused to give away rare weapons.

After 72nd butterfly knife

Therefore we had to investigate. As we found out the system behind the weapon chests is mindbogglingly complicated.

Here is what happens when a cutieneer opens the chest:

Chest’s drop stats:
Butterfly Knife — 45% drop chance
Ninja Knife — 25% drop chance
Thug Life Weapon — 5% drop chance
Viking Weapon — 2% drop chance

When the chest is opened, — server rolls for all items in the drop list and picks out the least rare item. True means the item is successfully rolled. Thus if:

Butterfly Knife — True
Ninja Knife — False
Thug Life Weapon — True
Viking Weapon — False

Player is going to receive the butterfly knife — because its the least rare weapon.

If: 
Butterfly Knife — False
Ninja Knife — False
Thug Life Weapon — True
Viking Weapon — True

Thug Life Weapon will be received as its the least rare weapon.

As you might guess calculating the real probability of receiving items, in this case, is up there with rocket science tasks. And probably the rates for the least rare items are much higher than it is written in the description.

This is why most Cutieneers ended up with butterfly knives.

There is even a petition to rename this weapon:

What happens next?

The team will review the mechanic behind the chests. The system we are using is quite popular in the gaming space, but it doesn’t seem to be good enough for our case. At the very least we will calculate more precise probabilities. At most, we will reimagine the whole system.

What should I do?

We would advise to HODL your chests for now. The update is coming very soon.


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