Josh Reddick is not the player the Dodgers were looking for
But hopefully he can be
August 2nd, 2016 — the Dodgers traded three prospects to the Oakland Athletics for Rich Hill and Josh Reddick. I was ecstatic. Not for Hill, whose prowess Sam Miller constantly raves about, but for Reddick, who added a much-needed bat to the Dodgers’ lineup. The Los Angeles front office added two much needed pieces to reach October.
While Hill, unfortunately, was unable to start until three weeks after his acquisition, Reddick was immediately inserted into the lineup. My initial positive reaction, however, was soon replaced by face-palming every time I saw Reddick run onto the field. What had the front office thought of when they acquired him? Why was Dave Roberts sending him out there on an almost daily basis? They acquired an outfielder who not only had become a defensive liability but was also becoming poorer hitter with each at bat.
The situation was tense and fans were quickly turning on Reddick. I myself was ready to condemn him and torch the front office for their misjudged acquisition. So I turned to his numbers to prove that Friedman had committed a blunder and to feed them both to the wolves. Effectively, before coming over from Oakland, Reddick was starting to underperform. The problem: he started to bounce back.
After a breakout 2012 season, Reddick has had his ups and downs. By fWAR, Reddick’s 2013 season was above-average. In 2014, he produced 2.6 fWAR, tying Brandon Moss and Derek Norris for second place amongst the A’s. Though an overall weak season, he had a strong performance in the second half of the season; which carried over into 2015. He reached his highest wOBA over a 30 day period in May 2015. From there, everything went downhill until mid-July. Though he eventually recovered he was unable to return to his start of year performance and ended up amassing 3.0 fWAR. When 2016 season kicked in, Reddick was still a reliable contributor for the A’s but to a lesser extent. To add injury to insult, a fractured thumb forced him to miss over month on the DL, sending him on an almost career-dooming downward spiral upon his return.
When traded, Reddick was still declining. Over a 30-day average, he reached his lowest career wOBA mark (.213). Yet, during the final month of the season, he not only regressed but improved beyond his mean, ending his season on a high note, hitting at a .365 wOBA, above his career mark of .323. Because of his playoff performance (as of Tuesday, 3-for-11 in 3 starts with a .280 wOBA); I don’t want to believe these numbers. I want to believe that over the last month he’s been on a very long hot streak. But numbers don’t lie. Reddick has been good and this doesn’t appear to be a streak.
Josh Reddick has a history of slow starts to a season, above average performance, mediocre wOBA and strong season finishes. Andrew Friedman and the rest of the front office know this. They saw something in him that merited trading for him; and it seems to have paid off. However, Reddick is on the wrong side of 28, bound to decline again — which he might not recover from this time.
If the Dodgers re-sign him, he must avoid a loss in production and prove to be superior to Yasiel Puig. Puig could then be shown the door via a trade, cementing Reddick as the incumbent right fielder. On the other hand, if Puig is traded and succeeds with his new team while Reddick’s end of season performance turns out to be a fluke, then questions about the front office savvy will resurface.
A third option could be retaining both outfielders and using them in a platoon situation, much like they were used in September 2016. If both outfielders abide to this decision, then we could envision Roberts handling the outfield much like Bob Melvin has done in Oakland. Knowing Friedman’s affinity for sabermetrics, this could be the likeliest outcome — though I wouldn’t discard the possibility of a Puig trade.
I honestly like Josh Reddick; he’s been one of my favorite players ever since his 2012 breakout season. But I also believe that the Dodgers’ acquired him at the wrong time. If they manage to keep him, he could very well return to his 2013–2015 form. Add this to the possibility of Puig leaving and the Dodgers could create a void in right field similar to the one they had in left for much of the 2000s. History and his age — and Puig’s situation — suggest that the latter is the most likely outcome. If it is, resigning Reddick might be a costly mistake. Let’s hope I’m wrong.
